Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333
Dont get me wrong, AAPL is a awesome company...I own 5 apple computers, 4 iphones, an Ipad and 3 ipods...  .
The thing is this, not to sound like a insensitive jerk, but when Steve Jobs "goes" AAPl days are numbered,...not because they arent a great company, but because like all great hitters in baseball or great QB's in the NFL, you cannot keep it up a "great" run forever...AAPL is selling dream, a way of life...much beyond technical gadgetry...when Jobs goes, at some point AAPL will follow...MSFT and INTC have tons of cash ...so does GGOG...but at some tipping point, the weight they carry on their shoulders is too much for anyone...and once you are out of wallstreets favor, they never come back to you ala MSFT, CSCO, INTC.
Ya see, I know its hard to imagine AAPL falling hard but sometimes it has nothing to do with cash, products, sales or user expereince...for example, during early 08' AAPL trading at 200.00....then by yrs end it was near 85.00...did AAPL suck during this period?..nope, they still had the best ipods, computers, iphones, etc...and yes iphone was out during the bear selloff...my point, when mkts enter the bear, even a great company like AAPL wont be immune...stock price doesnt reflect how great a company is, it has only to do with supply-demand of the stock. |
Yeah, yeah, but as I said, their earnings back up their stock price and do so conservatively. Their numbers are insane. One could argue that their growth, cash, and current p/e say the stock is cheap. Again, this isn't 100 p/e selling future growth potential like NFLX did before it was cut 60%. Oh and LNKD, please...AAPL does it and they do it every quarter, better than before.
I agree that years might wear the stock down, but again, not now. It's going to get much higher before it begins the decline you mention and are probably right about. Jobs still has some influence and the products in the pipeline have Jobs' fingerprints all over them. You saw the stock rally hard after the uncertainty of Jobs was removed. Now, we'll see if they can keep the momentum going long term. Perhaps they can't, but it won't matter in the next 12-18 months. I see iPhone sales increasing, iPads increasing more, and computers moving higher too.
This company looks like MSFT, CSCO, and INTC of old only in size...not in hard numbers. Permabears on AAPL said the same thing at $200, $300, REALLY screamed done at $350 and now we go toward $450...already hit $425 yesterday.