Quote:
Originally Posted by mact3333
Timestamp!...I like that...long time no see Vanity.
We are very close to ST/IT top...should see drop, then rise to get all the momo players back in and make slight new high, then a significant pullback...timing is about right...I too see a drop near 1500(maybe abit lower) within next 2-4 months...but then we make new all time highs yet again...odds favor it will be next spring...but modest chance it could happen this fall...depends on how the crazy late coming bulls behave over the next 3-4 months....when mom and pop enter, its the first sign we are near a substantial top...bear will be vicious next year.
The "bear" news will be some made up story serving as the impetus, but the charts are already showing the bear coming...the news will be an excuse...N Korea gonna make some fake noise?...  ...A scuffle with Iran?... ...Europe going to claim a recession?...but in the end, it will be Bernanke telling us we can no longer have the free crack(i.e.-buying up worthless mortgage backed securities at full price and ending QE officially)...bank on it!
Now time stamp this! I called for new all time highs a year and a half ago when many were semi-bearish...I am calling for a real bear(later) now when people getting semi-euphoric...the top always comes when you see Dow/SPX related stories on how the stock mkt is a sure thing rah rah rah, esp. in media such as USA Today...thats when you will know...watch for it late this year to early next yr...the sheeple will cause an overthrow on the charts before the collapse...but for now, its all clear... ...I will be calling the DEFCON alerts later.
You guys will be thanking me later haha...unless you are ungrateful ingrates...  |
One of the best calls ever made anywhere. Hope you ended up making some serious cash on that one ! And it's good to be back! Hopefully I will get the chance to post in here more often.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmahany
It's fun to make guesses, but what is your reasoning behind that bold statement?
I'm expecting a short term pullback, but there's absolutely nothing to suggest anything greater than a 4-5% re-adjustment.
It sounds like most of you are basing your hypotheses entirely off technical analysis.
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I don't base my macro calls on technicals. I've stated in the past that my most successful trades (i.e, my most successful trade at the start of the New Year which brought in +70% in 3 weeks) are based on pure fundamentals. What are these fundamentals you ask? Look at Options pricing. Follow the money. The smart money.
Back in March we had a large buyer of $SPX long calls when SPX stood at 1550. 85,000 contracts were bought-up by one-single-buyer. The entire trade was worth billions. Right when talks came in around that time of a pullback, a correction, a crash, etc, we had a large buyer step-up to make a long call on the market. Very rare in size since the bulls in this market tend to sell puts to "be long", actually buying 85,000 call contracts meant the SPX actually had to "go up" to make money. Ergo, bam, we went up.
Well now, Options pricing for SPX Skew is looking ugly. Skew climbed 10%+ in 5 sessions. Just trading within the mindset frame of this bull-market since 08', 100% of the time this Options skew has led to a drop of 6-19%. Right now, it's pricing in a -13% drop, but I like to wrap that within 10-15%. Obviously this is not a "guarantee" the market will fall. But certainly it's not a buy-signal for all the bulls who've been in the game since 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inspired
 I will say it will end up in the mid to high 1400 and the dow at the mid 13000 to high 13000. |
Sounds like we're on the same page. What's your hypothesis?
P.S. For the ST I still think we go higher. VIX term structures are too expensive, $VIX range-bound between 12-13% as it's fair price atm. Front-month futures will come out. Perhaps by Mid-June we should see the beginnings of some Macro-instability "headlines" come up.Top is forming itself atm, possibly. Won't comment on a Top until I see a lower-high. Rarely do we ever sell-off without having a dip followed by a lower-high.For now, dance till the music stops.