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Originally Posted by NorCalAthlete
Anyone been following the doom & gloom "major indicators of a crash not seen since 2007-2008" and earlier 1900s severe crash times?
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I've been following. I follow someone who seems to be predicting this. The question I have is whether this is being predicted based upon historical data (likely yes), and whether we are in a period that can't be represented by this data?
My reasoning. As the pandemic arrived we were headed towards a necessary pull back. The market crashed unexpectedly, and unrelated to a bubble. During the pandemic period companies had to restructure their operations. They've done so in a manner that has left some operating in a way that they will never return to a pre pandemic state. They won't be impacted as harshly with a continued pandemic or a similar event. This is to say they were forced to restructure operations to become as profitable as possible in a bleak environment. One could argue that this restructuring in good times would equate to higher profitability.
At the same time the markets are flooded with stimulus. This may have inadvertently smoothed out a market crash. A new generation of retail investors are now investing. A higher level of 401k utilization is in place. In other words we may be at the base or near the base of another upward run.
I have no clue. This is my unknowledgeable financial assessment. A crash could still be looming, but there is also a chance that the perfect storm occurred to mitigate a market crash. Thoughts?