Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
Thanks. What are you doing with your investments as a consequence of your views/thesis?
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That is a thesis I’ve read many times, but not one I support as you may infer from the last paragraph. I’m a long term bull, but expect some bumpiness as many factors sort out. Bumpiness translates to buying opportunities if I can watch closely.
I sold a house last fall and bought another (moved to a different state). To make that work I sold a lot of stocks in the fall - stocks I no longer wanted to own so won’t buy back. That put me at about 1/3 cash in the total portfolios, excluding my house (no mortgage). I’ve been sitting on that cash anticipating the market would be weak/volatile through Feb/Mar, but it firmed up earlier than I had expected so I’m late getting back in (but happy with my positions, just not optimized).
I also took on a full-time consulting gig starting Jan and have been really busy with that, so I haven’t had the time to look closely at stocks and put in the buy orders - I’m just watching at a high level. So I may delay getting back in a few more months. At that time I’ll go to about 85% stocks and 15% cash (I’m retired so that cash is next year’s expenses plus a cushion). I don’t like bonds because they typically have poor real yields, and I think we are in a long-term rising interest rate cycle (18 more years to go, or so), which will deflate their values. I’d rather have a dividend stock or fund with some growth potential if I was looking for a cash generator. All of that reflects my risk tolerances and very long term outlook/horizon. (“Cash” in this context is money markets and other short-term stuff, it is all earning, just poorly).