Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP
You are right in theory... but reality isn't shaking out that way. Mortgage rates have barely moved because the 10 year treasury was already priced in. Housing is at a stand still due to prices that are not manageable anymore and folks being locked in at massively lower rates than the going rate. Unemployment wont tick down because as another passionate poster mentioned, this is Covid excess... aside that, outsourcing and AI is picking up even more steam.
The port strike if it happens will bring about a lot of pain... i think before things really improve, we will get some stagnant growth, potentially inflation... which could then be followed by deflation to further reset things. I don't think employment will get better anytime soon, there are almost no companies posting solid results and wallstreet is tied strictly into tech firms it seems now which have some insane valuations... lowering the rates is simply an interim bandaid.
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For Q2 S&P500 earnings, 400 of the 500 beat analyst expectations and earnings growth YoY was 11 or 12%. I'm not sure how that amounts to "almost no companies posting solid results".