Quote:
Originally Posted by Watching The World Burn
One billion percent.
That's my guess - I'm locking it in.
(Should be worth approximately as much as anyone else's guess on here too)
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The best guess that anyone could make is one that is around the average.
Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1993 to mid-2023, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation). My base case estimate is to always go with the average for the short term (1-yr), as a safe bet.
Or calculate the reversion to mean as an eventuality over time. The S&P has returned about 14.7% in the last 10 years. That wouldn't appear to bode well over the longer term, say 4 years. The longer one looks out, the more likely reversion becomes, as a statistical exercise.
The old adage that "the market can remain irrational, longer than the average investor can remain solvent", may apply also. Before the election, the market was thought to be trading at a 2% premium by some.