[UPSROD]

People don't go out and over pay for a gas guzzler V-8 M3 because they couldn't buy a new Toyota!

[Mavus]

Originally Posted by Cortexiphan

The thing is, this gen of M cars may be the last fully ICE cars. For that reason, I think they will always be desirable. So I don't think they will go down, and I don't think that's just because of chip shortage or inflation.

Agree with that. One of the key aspects of buying cars is servicability/maint. Let's say you buy a pre-owned electric, will you be able to service it over 15-20y and at what cost? Of course some consumers love to pay forever lease pmts so they are not impacted.

Get whatever ice car you want and keep it. The $ is almost as valuable as toilet paper considering 28.5T debt.

[NotSticky]

Prices will eventually fall as the fed continues to raise interest rates and reel in inflation. Car prices should be back to normal within about 12-18 months. Be careful

[M8Bimmer]

I'm hoping as more Electric vehicles come into use the price of gas may eventually come down. Seems reasonable if stations aren't selling as much as they used to.
Yes could be 10 years off maybe.
But couldn't less demand cause lower prices. High demand seems to raise them so why not the opposite.
IMO a lot of folks are now ready to go electric in some form. So they will cause less gas to be needed and sold.
Opinions on this theory?

[FCX5]

Originally Posted by NickyC

If inflation continues at its present rate, and there's really nothing to suggest it won't, cars will be a STEAL compared to what we'll be looking at in 12-18 months.

I don't think most people have any real appreciation for how serious things are going to get. You cannot continue to have 14+% inflation year over year without societies breaking down, and war breaking out everywhere.

///M cars might the last thing on a lot of people minds, just putting food on the table for the family will be dicey.

We have the lowest jobless claims since 1969 and record lowest number of people paying taxes….with massive deficits paid by basically printing money…I think the latest idea is to give people money to pay for gas…which will only drive up gas prices further (since there is plenty of excess capacity for oil in the US if companies actually wanted to increase supply). LOL.

Companies were raking in record profits and handing out record bonuses last year, while govt was busy with handouts. Surreal. Record tax cuts followed by record handouts with record deficits and record stock market prices. Not being political, just stating the facts. Anyone who still thinks lobbying doesn't work….

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/25/57pe...021-study.html


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/us-w...ms-shrink.html


https://news.yahoo.com/corporate-pro...184717178.html

NET: prices will fall once interest rates rise, no new massive spending program gets passed and money isn't as easily available….which could cause a recession. No free lunch as they say.

[FCX5]

Originally Posted by NotSticky

Prices will eventually fall as the fed continues to raise interest rates and reel in inflation. Car prices should be back to normal within about 12-18 months. Be careful

I agree. I think 9 months….since Fed will be aggressive.

[davidvan05]

Originally Posted by NotSticky

Prices will eventually fall as the fed continues to raise interest rates and reel in inflation. Car prices should be back to normal within about 12-18 months. Be careful

Normally I would agree but supply chain issues is a major problem higher interest rates can't fix but will cause more of a problem in the next few years until supply chain issues get resolved.

By that time, auto manufactures will have transition to producing mainly EV's or efficient turbo vehicles. I feel like M cars and other special cars will hold their value indefinitely(unless we're in a deep recession) because ICE will go bye bye.

[Cos270]

On some level, they will always retain their value from here on out. We will not see prices fall back down to pre-COVID again IMO. We may see some fluctuation from the current market, but average prices will only go up. There are only limited quantities of these unique assets. If most of the market is priced out due to rising interest rates, recession, etc. there are enough wealthy enthusiasts to keep the prices inflated. This will not be unique to BMW M cars. Any gas-powered relatively analogue enthusiast car will follow this trend. The only thing that can upset it is if this big push for EVs subsides (which will not happen-we are past the point of no return. Companies have invested billions, perhaps trillions of dollars at this point).

[Cos270]

Originally Posted by lilcarmichael

I believe that at one point the market will realize that it wn too far. If you go back 10 years, e46 m3s traded for 10-15k, now it is impossible to find a good example for under 50k. Are we sure that a mass production car (86k produced) will keep up with the current value? A total different story is the z4m, that is a real limited production car

The problem with this theory (for older enthusiast cars, like the E46 you mention) is that it doesn't really matter how many were produced new. It matters how many are being sold on current market. People are starting to realize that ICE cars are going to be outlawed soon (both for purchase and use) and want to enjoy them as long as they can. That has created three groups of people: 1. Buyers who want to enjoy the experience before it's taken away 2. Sellers who want to capitalize on the high demand 3. Those who already own the car they want and will not sell because they want to enjoy the car(s) before it's not possible/feasible.

There are more people in categories 2 and 3 than people in category 1 can supply cars for. And the number of people in 2 and 3 is only going to grow, thus increasing the demand while shrinking the supply of an already limited asset.

[VAcurler]

I think the prices will more or less stay level until they catch up with "non-inflated" values. Unless we get a full on recession like in 2008. An interest rate increase won't do much as you either need the car, have already agreed to a long term loan at a fixed rate, or paid cash. The only way prices drop a bunch is if people have to sell out of desperation.

[10"]

Just wait til the recession hits—everyone will be back in the mud. Like everything, these are temporary changes.

[Orion94]

I agree, everything will come back eventually. The questions is how long will it take... for now, things might even get worse. We might get a palladium crisis as well.

[M8Bimmer]

Originally Posted by Orion94

I agree, everything will come back eventually. The questions is how long will it take... for now, things might even get worse. We might get a palladium crisis as well.

Welcome to the forum my friend! Good to have you here. It's a pleasure and an honor to speak with the brave folks of the Ukraine.
Best of wishes to you and your family there in Ukraine. Car issues are the last thing you need to worry about there. All of us here in Canada are on your side!

[mzwerner]

We Just Got the Biggest Monthly Drop in Used Car Prices Since April 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nce-april-2020