[BMWRL]

Wouldn't comparing 4 series sales in the same quarter, the same number of years on sale, with the previous Gen give you a better indication if the current styling is selling better or not?

[stein_325i]

Originally Posted by danf72

I'm struggling to understand how sales are up when inventories at dealers are so low and prices are so high. I guess there must have been pent up demand. What happens in Q4? Sales go up again?

Q3 of 2020 was still during dealer closings across the country due to COVID.

[claykin]

Originally Posted by stein_325i

Q3 of 2020 was still during dealer closings across the country due to COVID.

This and if you ever took a statistics class, adjust the input to get the desired output.

[3RDSECTOR]

Originally Posted by Giom

Somebody in this forum told me the other day that the 4 Series isn't selling... well, not according to these figures.

It seems my prediction was right. Despite the super hyped efforts of some to bully BMW into changing their ways, most normal people love what BMW is doing and the 4 Series sales clearly proves it.

The numbers aren't doing what you think they are doing. It's amazing the hoops people will go through to push their little narrative.

[bmwdrive]

Originally Posted by claykin

This and if you ever took a statistics class, adjust the input to get the desired output.

I think I read that sales are up compared to 2019 as well. It would be interesting to be in the BMW corporate finance department trying to predict sales. There is pent up demand. More people want cars to avoid public transportation and COVID. At the same time there is the chip shortage and inventories are plummeting. And a lot of people say they hate the way new BMWs look. The latter point seems to be irrelevant.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by danf72

I think I read that sales are up compared to 2019 as well.

2021 YTD sales are down compared to 2019. 2019 by end of Q3 BMW had sold 260,180 vehicles. Compared to 243,613 for 2021. Even behind 2018 numbers at this point in year.

Inventory issues are showing up. Q3 sales numbers at or near pandemic Q3 levels of last year.

[stein_325i]

Originally Posted by M3WC

2021 YTD sales are down compared to 2019. 2019 by end of Q3 BMW had sold 260,180 vehicles. Compared to 243,613 for 2021. Even behind 2018 numbers at this point in year.

Inventory issues are showing up. Q3 sales numbers at or near pandemic Q3 levels of last year.

And BMW also offered less vehicles for sale in 2019. The chip shortage of course has no doubt caused the lower numbers in sales. I'd love to see a comparison of CPO sales which I'm sure are significantly higher.

[JRobUSC]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Or maybe this article shows that BMW is full of sh*t and there is no "vehicle storage" as they have hyped up (AKA you are a sucker if you pay MSRP or anywhere close).

Kind of like what Rolex is doing....not really a shortage there, either.

I'm either laughing with you for your sarcasm or at you for being completely wrong. Not sure which it is, but either way, I'm laughing.

[InsideMan]

Originally Posted by JRobUSC

I'm either laughing with you for your sarcasm or at you for being completely wrong. Not sure which it is, but either way, I'm laughing.

Exactly. A vehicle shortage has nothing to do with YoY sales. It's about supply vs demand. And yes, the demand is outweighing the supply. Guy is probably being sarcastic.

[werdn]

I wonder if there are sales figures for just M cars

[cfm56d7b]

X5 sales continue set records for a multitude of easily understood reasons.

The decision to make iX look like a far cry from X5 will prove to be disappointing when future sales statistics become available.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by JRobUSC

I'm either laughing with you for your sarcasm or at you for being completely wrong. Not sure which it is, but either way, I'm laughing.

So BMW supposedly has this huge shortage yet are somehow selling more vehicles this year than in 2019 (pre-pandemic and pre-chip shortage)?

That USC education isn't doing very well for you in a lot of ways, is it?

I've made a buck or two in my life in business.....I'd rather make $10k per car on 230,000 transactions than $2k per car on 250,000 transactions. If inventory is perceived to be low, people will pay more. Again, SEE ROLEX. No dealer has ANY INVENTORY but there is...NO SHORTAGE.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by InsideMan

Exactly. A vehicle shortage has nothing to do with YoY sales. It's about supply vs demand. And yes, the demand is outweighing the supply. Guy is probably being sarcastic.

Another Einstein here......

If 2021 sales were like half of what 2020 or 2019 was....then we could definitely attribute it to a shortage. However, when they are basically on par with 2019 and 2020 (and make no mistake....sales were dead the first quarter or two of 2019-2020 overall but 3rd/4th quarters more than made up for it)....then the shortage is BS. I'm not saying there isn't a little bit of a shortage issue with BMW....but not anywhere to the degree of what you guys claim.

BMW sold 311k vehicles in 2018 and like 324k in 2019 in North America. They are close to on track for that this year. They've sold 240k through 3 quarters. Again, they would rather sell 300k and make $8k per car profit....than sell 324k for $2k profit per car. More hype of a shortage creates more demand....lessens need for as many sales people, lessens need to negotiate on cars, lessens need to come up with favorable leases, increases profit margin, etc. This is all money in their pocket.....

[Germanauto]

Autotrader has a recent Youtube vid diving into this topic. Can't say for sure how much BMW is withholding production or not. Make your own judgments.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by mjr24

If 2021 sales were like half of what 2020 or 2019 was....then we could definitely attribute it to a shortage. However, when they are basically on par with 2019 and 2020 (and make no mistake....sales were dead the first quarter or two of 2019-2020 overall but 3rd/4th quarters more than made up for it)....then the shortage is BS. I'm not saying there isn't a little bit of a shortage issue with BMW....but not anywhere to the degree of what you guys claim.

Q2 YTD (Pre and post pandemic)
2019- 174,023
2021- 183,619

Q3 YTD (Pre and post pandemic)
2019- 260,180
2021- 243,613

They are trending down compared to pre-pandemic. End of 2021 Q2 BMW was still ahead of 2019 pre-pandemic sales, by almost 10,000 units. End of 2021 Q3 they are behind pre-pandemic sales by almost 17,000 units. That is a 27,000 units move in the negative direction, which in my opinion points to inventory issues. I see Q4 even worse as dealer inventories are far more depleted going into Q4 than they were in Q3.

[Luminor513]

The total impact of supply shortages are yet to be fully realized. We'll have to see how the next 2 quarters play out. On another note, the numbers generated by X3, X5, and 3 series are wildly impressive.

[FCX5]

Originally Posted by mjr24

Another Einstein here......

If 2021 sales were like half of what 2020 or 2019 was....then we could definitely attribute it to a shortage. However, when they are basically on par with 2019 and 2020 (and make no mistake....sales were dead the first quarter or two of 2019-2020 overall but 3rd/4th quarters more than made up for it)....then the shortage is BS. I'm not saying there isn't a little bit of a shortage issue with BMW....but not anywhere to the degree of what you guys claim.

BMW sold 311k vehicles in 2018 and like 324k in 2019 in North America. They are close to on track for that this year. They've sold 240k through 3 quarters. Again, they would rather sell 300k and make $8k per car profit....than sell 324k for $2k profit per car. More hype of a shortage creates more demand....lessens need for as many sales people, lessens need to negotiate on cars, lessens need to come up with favorable leases, increases profit margin, etc. This is all money in their pocket.....

Never let a good crisis go to waste. BMW fortunately has an excellent product line now and debt is cheap for consumers…so it is easy to justify higher prices.

[claykin]

Originally Posted by FCX5

Never let a good crisis go to waste. BMW fortunately has an excellent product line now and debt is cheap for consumers…so it is easy to justify higher prices.

The lack of incentives in no way makes up for inexpensive financing. The current car market works because every manufacturer is in the same boat right now causing inventories to remain low. That will change and force others to follow suit. The old way of designing automotive electronics is dead.

[claykin]

Originally Posted by danf72

I think I read that sales are up compared to 2019 as well. It would be interesting to be in the BMW corporate finance department trying to predict sales. There is pent up demand. More people want cars to avoid public transportation and COVID. At the same time there is the chip shortage and inventories are plummeting. And a lot of people say they hate the way new BMWs look. The latter point seems to be irrelevant.

If you don't think bmw doesn't (or hasn't) played with the numbers, you clearly haven't been paying attention. And it's not just BMW. It's an industry wide problem.

[M2Cmtl]

Originally Posted by Germanauto

Autotrader has a recent Youtube vid diving into this topic. Can't say for sure how much BMW is withholding production or not. Make your own judgments.

My buddy has 10-12 dealerships from a few brands and this is exactly what he is saying. Everyone is making more money selling less cars. He would make 200$ on some F150 sales now it’s thousands.

[M3WC]

My buddy is GM at a BMW dealer. Incentives are very low and dealers discounts are non-existent. Essentially everything is sold at msrp now. They are making more per car, but selling at much lower volume. His salesman are making about the same money selling less cars per month. It isn't like they raking in vast amounts of more money. They would much rather have more inventory to sell.

[Germanauto]

Originally Posted by M2Cmtl

My buddy has 10-12 dealerships from a few brands and this is exactly what he is saying. Everyone is making more money selling less cars. He would make 200$ on some F150 sales now it’s thousands.

Yeah so basically the Ferrari/Rolex model toward sales.

What I find odd though, and maybe somebody can explain, is that the car business is generally very volume-driven. Smaller more niche brands like Ferrari, Porsche, etc. can produce fewer cars and sell at massive margins. However, at least pre-pandemic; BMW, Mercedes, Toyota, Ford etc. were volume driven in order to keep their business afloat.

So my question is, how much is BMW purposely holding back production and what is the end game? I don't take it this model is sustainable. Automakers are making a lot of money with the way things are, but eventually won't they have to return to chasing volume?

I would love for BMW to become a smaller, more focused automaker that isn't obsessed with trying to be all things for all people. But that's just a pipe dream.