[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by chassis

cmyx6go are you in the business?

Trucking as you mention has many small operators. Cowboys (and worse) and mom-and-pop shops. It's a good example of both entrepreneurialism (opportunity) and capitalism (the market is a harsh mistress).

It has always been this way. Truckers going out of, and entering, the business is nothing new. What's new here in your view?

Yes. I've been doing domestic transportation for 33 years - trucking, logistics, warehousing, everything supply chain. I did international before getting into domestic.

As far as Yellow goes, they are the biggest I've ever seen go out. Although there were other factors at play, I do believe the union played a big role. Yellow wanted to restructure their operation and close repetitive terminals and reclassify some workers - think having a driver work a dock. The union refused. This wasn't just about wages. And now they have 20,000 less members contributing. That can't be good for the union. I feel terrible for all the people who lost their jobs. And no one would entertain buying Yellow because they would be stuck with the union. Can't just make that go away.

Regarding truckers entering and going out the market, it's the magnitude of those going out. Small truckers move something like 80% of the total truckloads moved in the US. 91% of truckload carriers are 6 trucks or less. Think about that.

Historically, when the market got tight and rates went up, the big carriers would add trucks because they thought if I only had more trucks I could make more money. By the time the new trucks landed, the market went soft again and they'd have trucks sitting idle. So they would do blue light special rates and cause a downward spiral with rate levels. I knew that the market would soften again, and rates would come down but I thought there would be a new normal. The cost of equipment - both tractors and trailers - sky rocketed over the past few years. That is if you could even get new equipment. The cost of drivers increased, IF you could get drivers. The cost of insurance is insane due to these nuclear verdicts. I believe this kept many of the larger carriers from increasing the size of their fleets. Unfortunately, I'm seeing rate levels that are close to the downturn of 2008.

The freight market is always up and down, hence my pendulum always swings comment. The market was so tight and rates were the highest I've ever seen which attracted a lot of newcomers who thought it would last forever. They go out of business, which takes capacity out of the market. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Plus, the load boards and spot market rates. News travels fast. All it takes is one post with either a crazy high priced load to drive rates up, or a post of some ridiculously low rate to tank the rates.

Sorry if this is rambling, trying to get all my thoughts out. I think I'm done.

[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by Merlin_83

What happened to all the news about 2-3 years ago that autonomous trucks would take over many if not all long-haul trucking jobs? It was the next 'big thing' in changing the jobs landscape for owners/operators.

And then Tesla had the electric tractor-trailer thing too. Honestly, I cannot see any truck driving itself with zero human monitoring of the overall systems and safety parameters 'in the back seat'.

Having truly autonomous trucks would require dedicated sections of the highway, safely blocked off, or 'new' highway infrastructure.

Merlin

It's pretty scary if you ask me. What could possibly go wrong with 80,000# traveling down the road without a driver?

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by chassis

cmyx6go are you in the business?

Don't ask her about the family business!!!!!




.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by cmyx6go

Yes. I've been doing domestic transportation for 33 years - trucking, logistics, warehousing, everything supply chain. I did international before getting into domestic.

As far as Yellow goes, they are the biggest I've ever seen go out. Although there were other factors at play, I do believe the union played a big role. Yellow wanted to restructure their operation and close repetitive terminals and reclassify some workers - think having a driver work a dock. The union refused. This wasn't just about wages. And now they have 20,000 less members contributing. That can't be good for the union. I feel terrible for all the people who lost their jobs. And no one would entertain buying Yellow because they would be stuck with the union. Can't just make that go away.

Regarding truckers entering and going out the market, it's the magnitude of those going out. Small truckers move something like 80% of the total truckloads moved in the US. 91% of truckload carriers are 6 trucks or less. Think about that.

Historically, when the market got tight and rates went up, the big carriers would add trucks because they thought if I only had more trucks I could make more money. By the time the new trucks landed, the market went soft again and they'd have trucks sitting idle. So they would do blue light special rates and cause a downward spiral with rate levels. I knew that the market would soften again, and rates would come down but I thought there would be a new normal. The cost of equipment - both tractors and trailers - sky rocketed over the past few years. That is if you could even get new equipment. The cost of drivers increased, IF you could get drivers. The cost of insurance is insane due to these nuclear verdicts. I believe this kept many of the larger carriers from increasing the size of their fleets. Unfortunately, I'm seeing rate levels that are close to the downturn of 2008.

The freight market is always up and down, hence my pendulum always swings comment. The market was so tight and rates were the highest I've ever seen which attracted a lot of newcomers who thought it would last forever. They go out of business, which takes capacity out of the market. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Plus, the load boards and spot market rates. News travels fast. All it takes is one post with either a crazy high priced load to drive rates up, or a post of some ridiculously low rate to tank the rates.

Sorry if this is rambling, trying to get all my thoughts out. I think I'm done.

Thanks. What is the point you are making about the wider market? What you have described is nothing new for the freight business, e.g. many small operators, volatile up/down market, expensive equipment, "driver shortage" (always a driver shortage), etc.

YRC has been a poorly run company for years. The chickens finally came home to roost for them, therefore not an indication of the wider market. Agree?

[TheMidnightNarwhal]

This company has gone bankrupt for what, the third time now? Sucks for the people though but yeah screw that company. I think taxpayers are done bailing them out. The company has shown time and time again it cannot manage itself. And their union blaming is hilarious.

[KevinC]

Originally Posted by Merlin_83

Having truly autonomous vehicles of any type would require dedicated sections of the highway, safely blocked off, or 'new' highway infrastructure.

FTFY

[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks. What is the point you are making about the wider market? What you have described is nothing new for the freight business, e.g. many small operators, volatile up/down market, expensive equipment, "driver shortage" (always a driver shortage), etc.

YRC has been a poorly run company for years. The chickens finally came home to roost for them, therefore not an indication of the wider market. Agree?

The YRC and the TL market were separate conversations in the same post.

In my first post, I asked if there could possibly be spill over to the TL side with Yellow shutting their doors, or if the other LTL carriers could absorb the excess. Put aside the pick up and delivery, someone has to do the line haul between terminals. Which would increase demand and hopefully rates on the TL side. Which led me down the state of the trucking market rabbit hole. We shall see.

Curious chassis - what do you do?

[DETRoadster]

Surprised it took this long. The only thing I’d trust to ship on Yellow would be my competition’s goods. Honestly, when was the last time any of you booked space on Yellow? Yeah, I can’t remember either.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by cmyx6go

The YRC and the TL market were separate conversations in the same post.

In my first post, I asked if there could possibly be spill over to the TL side with Yellow shutting their doors, or if the other LTL carriers could absorb the excess. Put aside the pick up and delivery, someone has to do the line haul between terminals. Which would increase demand and hopefully rates on the TL side. Which led me down the state of the trucking market rabbit hole. We shall see.

Curious chassis - what do you do?

Trucking will be around and will see increased demand for the lifetime of anyone reading this post. Companies will come and go as they always have done.

I advise with the intent to make money for stakeholders. Sorry to be vague about it.

[Car-Addicted]

Still waiting on Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation to weigh in on this. Que the cricket sounds.

[vreihen16]

It looks like Yellow was also the parent of regional LTL carriers New Penn (northeast), Reddaway (west coast), and Holland (region not listed on Yellow's web site).....

[bagekko]

Originally Posted by Car-Addicted

Still waiting on Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation to weigh in on this. Que the cricket sounds.

LOL, guess they have to ramp up the aliens distration.

I wonder where the taxpayers & their 30% ownership stake of Yellow will be on the bankruptcy priority. Has any article estimated their total value in bankruptcy?

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

LOL, guess they have to ramp up the aliens distration.

I wonder where the taxpayers & their 30% ownership stake of Yellow will be on the bankruptcy priority. Has any article estimated their total value in bankruptcy?

Looks like almost $2b of cash + AR + PPE.

Less a bit less than $2b for long term debt and current liabilities.

So a couple of hundred million, maybe. Better than nothing, hopefully.

[vreihen16]

I saw one of Yellow's short trailers passing under an overpass on my way to work this morning, but could not see the tractor it was hitched to. I wonder if they know that someone was moving their equipment?????

[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

I saw one of Yellow's short trailers passing under an overpass on my way to work this morning, but could not see the tractor it was hitched to. I wonder if they know that someone was moving their equipment?????

I imagine they have interchange agreements allowing other carriers that handled their linehaul to use their trailers. I'm sure those terminals are locked up tight. You can't just go in and grab a trailer. But then again, who knows where they might have had trailers dropped prior to shutting down.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by chassis

Looks like almost $2b of cash + AR + PPE.

Less a bit less than $2b for long term debt and current liabilities.

So a couple of hundred million, maybe. Better than nothing, hopefully.

$1.3b buyout by Estes. I was a bit low - didn't count any goodwill. Let's see how much goodwill the eventual successful buyer puts on their balance sheet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...om-rival-estes

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

how the fuck you go bankrupt three times. gotta love america

[vreihen16]

The $1.3B Estes offer was only for the Yellow terminals in the article that I read, not their trucks or trailers.

If Wikipedia can be trusted, Estes has around 20K employees to Yellow's former 30K total employees. If they want to drop that kind of coin for terminals that in many cases are probably in close proximity to each other, then they must believe that they can make a profit out of Yellow's ruins.

FWIW, Estes' terminal in our neck of the woods has under 40 warehouse docks, and Yellow's shuttered terminal has a warehouse that's 1/3 of a mile long with docks on both sides. I don't feel like counting the docks on Google Earth, but at least in our corner of the universe that's a *huge* amount of terminal space to try and make profitable!

[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

The $1.3B Estes offer was only for the Yellow terminals in the article that I read, not their trucks or trailers.

If Wikipedia can be trusted, Estes has around 20K employees to Yellow's former 30K total employees. If they want to drop that kind of coin for terminals that in many cases are probably in close proximity to each other, then they must believe that they can make a profit out of Yellow's ruins.

FWIW, Estes' terminal in our neck of the woods has under 40 warehouse docks, and Yellow's shuttered terminal has a warehouse that's 1/3 of a mile long with docks on both sides. I don't feel like counting the docks on Google Earth, but at least in our corner of the universe that's a *huge* amount of terminal space to try and make profitable!

I didn’t realize Estes had nationwide coverage. I don’t do much LTL. Their website shows that they already have terminals in all states so I doubt they need the terminals. Maybe just for real estate? They can pick up the terminals at bargain and either move into Yellow’s larger terminal and sell off theirs or just sell the Yellow terminals. Warehouse and industrial properties are going for stupid $ right now. I have people offering us crazy money to sell everyday.

[chassis]

Yes, Estes will keep what they need, or want, and sell the rest of the real estate.

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by cmyx6go

They can pick up the terminals at bargain and either move into Yellow’s larger terminal and sell off theirs or just sell the Yellow terminals. Warehouse and industrial properties are going for stupid $ right now. I have people offering us crazy money to sell everyday.

At least in our neck of the woods, it would probably be easier for Estes to sell their under-40 dock terminal and move to Yellow. I don't see *anybody* buying up Yellow's monster-sized terminal, unless they planned on splitting up the space and leasing it to other truck/terminal companies.

Suspected deferred maintenance issues aside, Yellow's terminal vacancy will probably squash the local warehouse/terminal demand for the next few years around here. Probably not happy news for the speculation builders holding commercial land.....

[chassis]

ODFL just bid $1.5b for YELL’s real estate. It will be interesting to see if Estes stays in the game.