[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

so i guess this is just all opinion and why economists are no longer a highly regarded profession... i seem them going towards meteorological forecasters soon...

They/we never were. It was called the dismal science long before I took my first class.

With respect to forecasting the economy, the old joke is if you assemble a group of five economists and ask for their predictions, you’ll get at least seven forecasts.

And another: an economist, an engineer, and a landscaper are trapped in a hole. They each work on a plan to get out. After the engineer and landscaper describe various ways to dig, make stairs, etc., they ask the economist for his solution. He responds, “assume a ladder,…”

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

They/we never were. It was called the dismal science long before I took my first class.

With respect to forecasting the economy, the old joke is if you assemble a group of five economists and ask for their predictions, you’ll get at least seven forecasts.

And another: an economist, an engineer, and a landscaper are trapped in a hole. They each work on a plan to get out. After the engineer and landscaper describe various ways to dig, make stairs, etc., they ask the economist for his solution. He responds, “assume a ladder,…”

i think it would be an accurate profession if we had a true hands off economy... what no one can predict is what outside forces will move the market... i.e. govt support, bailouts, ppp etc... thats why ive always said we dont nor have ever had free markets, thats a made up story someone told someone else and it got spread

[XutvJet]

My investment portfolio has never been so large. My paid off house is worth double what we paid back in 2007. Once my daughter is off to college in early 2027, I'm retiring at 53, my wife and I will downsize substantially and buy/build a sub 1,200 ft2 3 bedroom home with lots of windows and outside living space, do a nice standalone garage, be off the grid as much as possible with solar/wind/well water, big garden, and just enjoy an easy life.

We're going backwards compared to what most do as they get older by getting a bigger home, second home on a beach/lake, etc. I'm done with managing and fixing stuff on our 1970s 2,200 ft2 home, maintaining a yard and grass (so stupid), having a huge basement that just collects crap, etc. I'm done with my stuff owning me and my time.

I fully expect a recession/big market drop starting late this year and lasting through the end of 2026. I just pray my portfolio is worth as much in early 2027 as it is now

[bagekko]

Just found out my homeowners insurance policy renewal next month is going up 50%, what a joke, to many that is a huge deal. Woo hoo food inflation has stopped but other crap is still out of control...

One reason I am skeptical on the state of the US economy, especially from any political source, is pretty much all the major industrial nations aren't doing so great, so how are we the only ones "looking" good. Japan for example, is F'd and been so for a while.

[JeffL0]

If you're skeptical of the government reported numbers, Shadowstats offers a different perspective, accounting for factors conveniently omitted from the "official" reporting.

Inflation:
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...flation-charts

Unemployment:
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...loyment-charts

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

My investment portfolio has never been so large. My paid off house is worth double what we paid back in 2007. Once my daughter is off to college in early 2027, I'm retiring at 53, my wife and I will downsize substantially and buy/build a sub 1,200 ft2 3 bedroom home with lots of windows and outside living space, do a nice standalone garage, be off the grid as much as possible with solar/wind/well water, big garden, and just enjoy an easy life.

We're going backwards compared to what most do as they get older by getting a bigger home, second home on a beach/lake, etc. I'm done with managing and fixing stuff on our 1970s 2,200 ft2 home, maintaining a yard and grass (so stupid), having a huge basement that just collects crap, etc. I'm done with my stuff owning me and my time.

I fully expect a recession/big market drop starting late this year and lasting through the end of 2026. I just pray my portfolio is worth as much in early 2027 as it is now

You are doing the right thing... i never understood older people that build large homes away from people (where its hard to get medical help) or they have a hard time keeping up with maintenance.

Originally Posted by bagekko

Just found out my homeowners insurance policy renewal next month is going up 50%, what a joke, to many that is a huge deal. Woo hoo food inflation has stopped but other crap is still out of control...

One reason I am skeptical on the state of the US economy, especially from any political source, is pretty much all the major industrial nations aren't doing so great, so how are we the only ones "looking" good. Japan for example, is F'd and been so for a while.

The weighing of inflation overall is bizarre because it doesn't weight cost components correctly... rent / housing payments are by far everyone's largest expense and that continues to go up... insurance is following, as are taxes which all goes hand in hand.

Cars are almost an irrelevant metric because you can always buy used for a fraction of the price and there is a ton of choice.

Food is HIGHLY selectable by people and alternate options to brands always exist... cooking at home is an option.

Gas, energy and transport are almost never optional and those continue to be high.

Appliances / electronics? not sure how that is even a relevant metric for anyone as that is almost always disposable unless you buy a wachine machine once every 10 years lol

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by JeffL0

If you're skeptical of the government reported numbers, Shadowstats offers a different perspective, accounting for factors conveniently omitted from the "official" reporting.

Inflation:
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...flation-charts

Unemployment:
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternat...loyment-charts

John Williams, the author of that site, is a clown. His methodology for calculating inflation has a major misrepresentation. He calculates the cumulative 20 year change in the measured price level (something the BLS does, and has on their site) and represents it as annual increase.

He also gets his UE figure by including people who have not looked for a job in over 12 months, and have no interest in even getting a job. My wife, a stay at home mom, hasn't worked in over 12 months and at this time isn't looking for a job....she is included in Williams pumped up figures.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Just found out my homeowners insurance policy renewal next month is going up 50%, what a joke, to many that is a huge deal. Woo hoo food inflation has stopped but other crap is still out of control...

Just renewed myself and am flabbergasted, frankly. Ours went up nearly 30% y-o-y, and has doubled (to $4500!) in three years. Clearly in some parts of the economy inflation continues to be an issue that is not going away quickly.

In other parts, not so much, which was reflected in today's inflation figures. But the market hasn't responded to that. Why? One reason, I think, is the observed stickiness. PCE x-food/energy in April was 2.8% (also 2.8% in Feb/Mar) is still high. (To those who say, it's not high, it's close to 2%, think again. To get from 2.8 to 2 inflation would have to drop by almost 30%! That's a lot, no a little.) The other is that where inflation has begun to come down, it's because demand is collapsing now that consumers, already overstretched, are starting to fear for their jobs and pulling in spending. Food, cars, airfares, hotels, are coming down, but for the wrong reasons. The rest, not so much.

Personal Income and Outlays, April 2024

Couple that with the downward revision of the GDP numbers to +1.3% for Q1 and projected growth of maybe 1% in Q2, it's clear we're already in a stagflationary environment. Job creation has been trending down for two years now and hourly earnings increases have been dropping. There is finally a broad sense that jobs are at risk. That is the shoe that needs to fall in order to break this cycle, and it looks like it might finally happen, despite the ridiculous fiscal policies of this government.

This has made parts of the market very jumpy; note the 20% drop in CRM and the 25% drop in MDB after they announced slowing growth. Expect more turbulence and downdrafts, I think.

[TTM0TION]

Speaking of insurance, has everyone seen their car insurance go way up? No tickets, accidents, or anything to make it happen and my next renewal is about 35% higher. Wondering if this is standard or if it's time to shop around.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by TTM0TION

Speaking of insurance, has everyone seen their car insurance go way up? No tickets, accidents, or anything to make it happen and my next renewal is about 35% higher. Wondering if this is standard or if it's time to shop around.

Yep - this is a pretty common number. Blame inflation and the fact that more newer cars are simply being totaled due to the repair costs outweighing full on replacement.

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by TTM0TION

Speaking of insurance, has everyone seen their car insurance go way up? No tickets, accidents, or anything to make it happen and my next renewal is about 35% higher. Wondering if this is standard or if it's time to shop around.

It's always time to shop around. Just do what you can to ensure you're comparing apples to apples in terms of coverage and service. The latter can be difficult; I use Consumer Reports as a general guide. Local independent agents can be excellent guides as well.

Insurance has gone up across the board here. The upside of that downside is that we start from a generally low base compared to many other regions of the country. The rates of increase seem often to be less here, too. Overall, it's still been a significant change.

I'm comparing SW Ohio to New England (outer Boston region) and the San Francisco Bay Area. Those are the two regions in which I've bought insurance for most of my life.

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by TTM0TION

Speaking of insurance, has everyone seen their car insurance go way up? No tickets, accidents, or anything to make it happen and my next renewal is about 35% higher. Wondering if this is standard or if it's time to shop around.

Been some articles in the WSJ about car and other types of insurance premiums rising.

Various factors at play.

Every other year or so I'll solicit quotes from other car insurance companies. So far my insurance company: State Farm; has the lowest premiums. Not by much just a few bucks.

Shop around. Well, get quotes before you jump from one insurance company to another.

Also, you can sit down and review your coverage looking for ways to lower your premium.

[Humdizzle]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

bought some target and nvidia. nvda is set to split 4-1 in the coming weeks. and after the chip shortage thing is over we should see good results..

just quoting myself from 2021.

turns out that was a very good buy. my 560 nvda shares have netted me over 50k so far. google, amazon, aapl are also going very strong for me.

not all winners: those hype stocks are still in the dumps (clov, clne, clf, amc) and ark investments are also staying around -75% for me.

still, +50% on unrealized gains since the bottom happened in 2020 isn't bad at all!

[2000cs]

I looked for this thread Thursday, Friday and again this morning. Thought by now someone else would have brought it up to the top.

Soft landing narrative died last week; some say recession is here but not in the data yet. Just in time for the election? That can’t be allowed!!

As usual, Fed is too late and will have to play catch-up. Should cut rates now but an emergency cut will be a very negative signal; so likely wait until next month and maybe cut deeper (especially if things haven’t settled).

Sell offs are always interesting. I wish I could call the bottom so I’d know when to buy.

[TR930]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

I looked for this thread Thursday, Friday and again this morning. Thought by now someone else would have brought it up to the top.

Soft landing narrative died last week; some say recession is here but not in the data yet. Just in time for the election? That can’t be allowed!!

As usual, Fed is too late and will have to play catch-up. Should cut rates now but an emergency cut will be a very negative signal; so likely wait until next month and maybe cut deeper (especially if things haven’t settled).

Sell offs are always interesting. I wish I could call the bottom so I’d know when to buy.

While dramatic, sell off just bringing values back to April/May of this year.

Raising rates now would strengthen the Yen which would cause more unwind of that carry trade. Hold rates is the right thing to do.

Big question is what does Iran do to Israel, and then what does Israel do in response.

Then, the absolute collapse in CRE values may come into focus, then the Presidential election....

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by TR930

While dramatic, sell off just bringing values back to April/May of this year.

Raising rates now would strengthen the Yen which would cause more unwind of that carry trade. Hold rates is the right thing to do.

Big question is what does Iran do to Israel, and then what does Israel do in response.

Then, the absolute collapse in CRE values may come into focus, then the Presidential election....

I think you meant lowering rates now would be a bad idea. I agree, but mainly because of the signal it sends about recession fears and not so much the reason you mention. Should have dropped 1/4 last meeting, will have to do that in September and may go farther if things don’t moderate.

I’m generally in the camp that this blows over and creates a buying opportunity. I don’t see it as the start of a sustained bear market - at least not yet. Check back with me in a year on that!

[other_evolved]

We haven't had a correction (10%+ drop) in about 8 quarters and historically we get one every 4-5 quarters so this isn't all that surprising.

[Tyga11]

Nikkei was down 12% today. Something is broken in the financial markets. This is not normal down day by any means. Do I want to be in cash? No. Am I nervous? Beyond belief. If Iran does anything we are heading back down to 4500 on the S&P IMO

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Nikkei was down 12% today. Something is broken in the financial markets. This is not normal down day by any means. Do I want to be in cash? No. Am I nervous? Beyond belief. If Iran does anything we are heading back down to 4500 on the S&P IMO

Time difference. Nikkei was catching up to US and other markets Friday drops, and then in line with futures as a bit of program selling and perhaps some early panic set in this morning (overnight). If that is correct, it should recover slightly tonight.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Time difference. Nikkei was catching up to US and other markets Friday drops, and then in line with futures as a bit of program selling and perhaps some early panic set in this morning (overnight). If that is correct, it should recover slightly tonight.

Hope you are right. I have a feeling this is the start of a bear market.

[DrVenture]

It is always important to separate the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market from the economy. And coming off 2023's stock market performance and YTD 2024, a pullback seems reasonable.

The FED has been signaling a rate reduction for months. A September cut was very much expected, based on inflation numbers, before this pullback.

I have used every pullback since the 1990's as a buying opportunity, sometimes employing the broader market, sometimes individual issues. It would be a mistake to draw any broad economic conclusions from this market activity. And a mistake to let political views impact investing decisions. Absolutely no one can predict the economic future. All that we have are backwards looking indicators - GDP, inflation, unemployment, employment - and the trend line they represent.

This may be a relevant data point - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/carr...-sell-off.html

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Hope you are right. I have a feeling this is the start of a bear market.

Should have mentioned as well the BoJ rate hike killed the carry trade, and that trade was used in part to fund mag7 investments. When their earnings disappointed in combination with unwinding the carry, the Nikkei fell fast. So our Fed cutting rates now won’t impact the carry on JPY-USD…it is already unwinding/unwound.