[claykin]

I sure hope they're right on this one.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/mor...-over-20211116

[chassis]

They are not.

[DenverSteve]

It's just getting bad and, I believe will get worse before better. Like most things that are completely out of our control, sit back, relax and.... this too shall pass. There's nothing that being anxious will help.

[Cos270]

As someone working in the industry...no. We are not even close to over. Maybe close to being able to cope with the pain, but we're going to be living with this for a while.

[tracer bullet]

At what point do we go back a step on things? I read about GM not including heated seats, because of a chip shortage. Seems to me you used to be able to use buttons with relays to heat your seats. Chip not required.

I guess I'm old or something, but - if I want my seat heated, I want my seat heated. I hate feeling like I'm asking the car for permission to do it. And if it breaks I don't just replace a relay, I replace a motherboard. Not sure where we are today is exactly considered progress on all fronts.

[HighlandPete]

Originally Posted by tracer bullet

At what point do we go back a step on things? I read about GM not including heated seats, because of a chip shortage. Seems to me you used to be able to use buttons with relays to heat your seats. Chip not required.

I guess I'm old or something, but - if I want my seat heated, I want my seat heated. I hate feeling like I'm asking the car for permission to do it. And if it breaks I don't just replace a relay, I replace a motherboard. Not sure where we are today is exactly considered progress on all fronts.

Energy management will give 'permission' for your heated seats, whether you can have 100%, 75%, or whatever.

[TAZ007]

Originally Posted by tracer bullet

At what point do we go back a step on things? I read about GM not including heated seats, because of a chip shortage. Seems to me you used to be able to use buttons with relays to heat your seats. Chip not required.

I guess I'm old or something, but - if I want my seat heated, I want my seat heated. I hate feeling like I'm asking the car for permission to do it. And if it breaks I don't just replace a relay, I replace a motherboard. Not sure where we are today is exactly considered progress on all fronts.

While a 3 or even 4 way switch with relay would work, it is more costly than a small circuit board with chip to control. Additionally, the OEMs have been setup like this for decades and the retooling vs no offer is far more costly. It's a money call and gamble the chip shortage is over soon.

[tracer bullet]

Originally Posted by TAZ007

While a 3 or even 4 way switch with relay would work, it is more costly than a small circuit board with chip to control. Additionally, the OEMs have been setup like this for decades and the retooling vs no offer is far more costly. It's a money call and gamble the chip shortage is over soon.

Yeah, agreed to all the above. I get why we're here. Just curmudgeonly this morning

[TAZ007]

Originally Posted by tracer bullet

Yeah, agreed to all the above. I get why we're here. Just curmudgeonly this morning

LOL I get it.

[heavyD^2]

It's great that the plants are running at capacity again but it's still going to take some time to fill backorders that have piled up.

[KevinC]

Morgan Stanley is full of shiite...

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/20...n-some-models/

[claykin]

Originally Posted by KevinC

Morgan Stanley is full of shiite...

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/20...n-some-models/

Morgan Stanley might be missing the mark on this one, I agree. Malaysia has quite a few chip fabs including from some notable names such as ST Micro and Infineon. Malaysia is also extremely important in chip packaging (the plastic, ceramic, metal, glass, etc. that surrounds the semiconductor to allow it to be safely handled and installed on a PCB). I recently read an article where TSMC claimed Malaysia was very much responsible for a big part of the hold up in them being able to ship completed products. All this said, it's quite obvious the semiconductor shortage is way bigger than fixing production in a single country. Everything from raw materials to other fabs and packaging houses in other countries play a role in building the PCB's that are used in our cars, electronics, etc.

We shall see in the coming months if the current constraints on parts, features, options improves.

[TAZ007]

That improvement will further exacerbate the issue when Covid variant Eta hits.

[LogicalApex]

Almost over? lol yeah I guess so if you see it from a perspective of the industry adapting to it as a new "normal" where decontenting is expected and long delays are typical. I mean from that vantage point I guess...

In reality... This will be with us for another 5-10 years. As I'm sure the current situation is impacting new car designs which will be decontented from the drawing board and we'll need some time for that rubber band to snap back and the industry both designs and builds properly again.

You'll see lower priced cars and trims become a lot more bare bones than they have been in the interim. I wouldn't be shocked if we see many cars, for instance, get stuff like roll up windows and etc in their refreshes.

[claykin]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

Almost over? lol yeah I guess so if you see it from a perspective of the industry adapting to it as a new "normal" where decontenting is expected and long delays are typical. I mean from that vantage point I guess...

In reality... This will be with us for another 5-10 years. As I'm sure the current situation is impacting new car designs which will be decontented from the drawing board and we'll need some time for that rubber band to snap back and the industry both designs and builds properly again.

You'll see lower priced cars and trims become a lot more bare bones than they have been in the interim. I wouldn't be shocked if we see many cars, for instance, get stuff like roll up windows and etc in their refreshes.

I respect a lot of your opinions, but this one I disagree with. Competition in auto manufacturing is fierce, as you well know. The current situation has nearly every manufacturer digging into ways to reduce their dependency on others and reduce overall risk. No way BMW is planning to decontent their future models. I believe they'll be more vigilent in choosing part/component suppliers as well as remodeling the JIT inventory method of building cars.

[e90335e36m3]

If Goldman Sachs said that...I'd believe.

[DrFerry]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

If Goldman Sachs said that...I'd believe.

Do you trust "The Banks"? I don't.

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by DrFerry

Do you trust "The Banks"? I don't.

In Lloyd Blankfein I trust.

[DrFerry]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

In Lloyd Blankfein I trust.

Hello in Waxhaw NC from Greer SC.. Here's Big Banker Steve Mnuchin (ex 77th Treasury Secretary) and wife.. Did you know he used to be a Movie Producer? Oh that certainly qualifies him to be a Banker these days.. It's amazing what money can buy, but if you're a banker it's just ones and zeros on a computer screen backed by nothing. Hence the term "fiat" money..

.

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by DrFerry

Hello in Waxhaw NC from Greer SC.. Here's Steve Mnuchin (ex 77th Treasury Secretary) and wife.. Did you know he used to be a Movie Producer? Oh that certainly qualifies him to be a Banker these days.. It's amazing what money can buy, but if you're a banker it's just ones and zeros on a computer screen backed by nothing. Hence the term "fiat" money..

.

Hey Neighbor. I say it all with a grain of salt. So long as trading GS stock can make me money I'll be ok. Bought some today at 385/share.

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by DenverSteve

Like most things that are completely out of our control, sit back, relax and.... this too shall pass. There's nothing that being anxious will help.

I really wish more people would have listened to this in the March 2020 time frame.

Personally I'm more interested in when the shortage of good BMW design decisions is going to end.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by claykin

I respect a lot of your opinions, but this one I disagree with. Competition in auto manufacturing is fierce, as you well know. The current situation has nearly every manufacturer digging into ways to reduce their dependency on others and reduce overall risk. No way BMW is planning to decontent their future models. I believe they'll be more vigilent in choosing part/component suppliers as well as remodeling the JIT inventory method of building cars.

I agree that the space is extremely competitive and I also agree that BMW wouldn't (and I don't think other manufacturers are rushing to either) decontent their vehicles without valid reasons. But the recent deals between Ford and Global Foundries and GM linking up with Qualcomm and NXP shows that the chip situation won't be returning to the old "normal" in short order. And as we start to see things return back manufacturers will have much more vertical integration -- at least with regards to semiconductors.

We're going to see the availability of chips continue to be volatile. As a result, we'll see automakers continuing to prioritize chips to vehicles that they consider to be higher margin and for them to reduce the chip needs of cars that are lower margin. What that looks like will vary across manufacturers, segments, and models.

Even now the loss of touchscreens on BMWs and the loss of HD radio are pretty visible and sad losses, but there may be more under the hood that makers don't need to disclose to us directly...