[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Fundguy1

There are maybe a million potential EV customers in the US. Total EV sales are 0.4% of car sales. The other 99.6% of car sales are gas powered. Meaning 200 mm potential customers. I don't see bmw leaving anything on the table. They've put a huge portion of research and marketinget budiet towards a statistically insignificant portion of potential sales. Bad management. Tesla is a tiny niche company. It can go after the niche market. If bmw wanted that market, they shold have just bought tesla, rebranded it, stuck some bmw wheels, bodies, roundels, interiors on it, and called it a day. But even that's worthless because the value of tesla is super high from speculators.

What's the potential worldwide market for BMW? 80 million? What's the potential market for Tesla? 20 million? Since there's overlap, that is a significant threat.

[Fundguy1]

Originally Posted by zenmaster

What's the potential worldwide market for BMW? 80 million? What's the potential market for Tesla? 20 million? Since there's overlap, that is a significant threat.

Is tesla selling worldwide? Is 20 million or even 80 million potential car sales a significant number in worldwide auto sales? Are those real numbers of EV car sales not including golf carts? Last year there was 500,000 ev and 90,000,000 sold worldwide. What makes you think EV sales in the next few years will go up 16,000% ? That EV cars will be 90+ % of car sales up from 0.6%???

[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Fundguy1

Is tesla selling worldwide? Is 20 million or even 80 million potential car sales a significant number in worldwide auto sales? Are those real numbers of EV car sales not including golf carts? Last year there was 500,000 ev and 90,000,000 sold worldwide. What makes you think EV sales in the next few years will go up 16,000% ? That EV cars will be 90+ % of car sales up from 0.6%???

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-38947

[tke743]

Originally Posted by fravel

For real. What executive looked at that thing and went "Yeah, that'll sell"?

Problem is that it was probably 100 executives in a committee...

[Fundguy1]

Originally Posted by zenmaster

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-SWB-38947

Ok so the 0.2% of tesla owners like their cars. This translates a couple hundred thousand owners, mostly uber techies and greenies into 40% od worldwide auto sales how?

[Fundguy1]

Originally Posted by tke743

Problem is that it was probably 100 executives in a committee...

Like the pontiac Aztec lol.

[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Fundguy1

Ok so the 0.2% of tesla owners like their cars. This translates a couple hundred thousand owners, mostly uber techies and greenies into 40% od worldwide auto sales how?

"...aggregate global total available market of ~19m vehicles for Models S, X and III combined". And all this was before the Model 3 intro. Read and learn.

[Fundguy1]

Originally Posted by zenmaster

"...aggregate global total available market of ~19m vehicles for Models S, X and III combined". And all this was before the Model 3 intro. Read and learn.

I was talking about total EV sales worldwide vs total car sales worldwide. You're assuming that half of all worldwide car buyers buy ev. That's the market. Currently they account for less than half a percent of sales worldwide. So they would need a 16,000% increase in sales to capture and convert potential customers, which you're talking about, to actual customers , which I'm talking about. Still trying to figure out how that happens. I did read. My numbers are based on the last full calendar year in sales, so the most recent data. Potential customer doesn't equal customer.

[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Fundguy1

I was talking about total EV sales worldwide vs total car sales worldwide. You're assuming that half of all worldwide car buyers buy ev. That's the market. Currently they account for less than half a percent of sales worldwide. So they would need a 16,000% increase in sales to capture and convert potential customers, which you're talking about, to actual customers , which I'm talking about. Still trying to figure out how that happens. I did read. My numbers are based on the last full calendar year in sales, so the most recent data. Potential customer doesn't equal customer.

Not in the least. BMW's market is nowhere near total cars sold worldwide. This thread is about BMW's decisions and how they will affect business. Now see how the picture changes.

[Fundguy1]

Yes. What I'm saying is if you are a car maker, there's a big pie out there of customers, aND you want your slice. Gas powered cats are 99.6% of the pie. Ev 0.4% of the pie. To say you have 40mm potential EV customers is fine. But to convert potential EV customers, you need an EV sales increase of 16,000%. Not happening anytime soon. Also think about the reality of what you are saying. China and India are two of the largest and fastest growing car markets. Ev cars appeal to technogeeks and greenies. Neither of which are in either country. And you think it's hard to find a place to charge in the US? Try rural China.

[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Fundguy1

Yes. What I'm saying is if you are a car maker, there's a big pie out there of customers, aND you want your slice. Gas powered cats are 99.6% of the pie. Ev 0.4% of the pie. To say you have 40mm potential EV customers is fine. But to convert potential EV customers, you need an EV sales increase of 16,000%. Not happening anytime soon. Also think about the reality of what you are saying. China and India are two of the largest and fastest growing car markets. Ev cars appeal to technogeeks and greenies. Neither of which are in either country. And you think it's hard to find a place to charge in the US? Try rural China.

Battery tech has recently made EVs cost competitive with ICE cars. The tech will continue to improve, reducing costs (1/3 cost of EV is battery) while increasing performance and range. But ICE car tech can not keep pace in value per dollar. This is important to realize. It'll be not just an "electric car", but an overall less expensive car to produce which offers more value. Why would a consumer not buy the car offering better value? As Musk said, "Even if you get no options, this [Model 3] will be the best car you can buy."

Again, BMW's market is well known. It is not and never was that whole pie.
Their bread and butter is an "entry level" luxury vehicle with certain features (performance, comfort, aesthetics, tech) at a certain price point. Their primary competition at the moment is Mercedes and Audi. However with Tesla Model 3's being cheaply produced (for "greenies" and "tech geeks" and millions in other demographics that want quality/performance for their dollar) @ 500k units/yr starting in 2018 with target market being the 3-series (with Merc and Audi affected as well), we have quite a different story on EV competition. The main point is that these EV cars will be available well before BMW can answer with a competitive EV. These short sighted decisions will result in significant lost revenue for BMW.

[Arthurrs]

I'd say it will be at least 3-5 years before electric cars even make a dent on the market, despite Tesla having so many orders for the Model 3. I seriously doubt Tesla will have the Model 3 on time and in the promised budget range in even three years, despite all the marketing momentum that they have. I'd love to buy a Tesla, but for my driving patterns, it would not suit my needs at all. Maybe for my wife who has a 15 minute commute it would work rather well. If BMW would produce an 3 series electric car, then I would seriously consider it a few years down the road for my wife.

Then you have the problem of Tesla having maybe 2 or 3 service centers for an metropolis of 3+ million people. The closest one to my is a 45 minute drive away! Charging stations in my area? Yeah, I really like to go 30 minutes out of my way and wait yet another 30+ minutes to charge my car. Sorry, time is money, and I can't afford to waste time hoping to find a charging station that is enroute to where I'm going.

Then wait a few years when all the electric car owners face the prospect of replacing their batteries....the market will be flooded with old electric cars going for pennies on the dollar.

[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Arthurrs

I'd say it will be at least 3-5 years before electric cars even make a dent on the market, despite Tesla having so many orders for the Model 3. I seriously doubt Tesla will have the Model 3 on time and in the promised budget range in even three years, despite all the marketing momentum that they have. I'd love to buy a Tesla, but for my driving patterns, it would not suit my needs at all. Maybe for my wife who has a 15 minute commute it would work rather well. If BMW would produce an 3 series electric car, then I would seriously consider it a few years down the road for my wife.

I think Tesla will probably slip a few months on their delivery schedule, but they will probably be able to produce the car for the planned price.

Originally Posted by Arthurrs

Then you have the problem of Tesla having maybe 2 or 3 service centers for an metropolis of 3+ million people. The closest one to my is a 45 minute drive away! Charging stations in my area? Yeah, I really like to go 30 minutes out of my way and wait yet another 30+ minutes to charge my car. Sorry, time is money, and I can't afford to waste time hoping to find a charging station that is enroute to where I'm going.

Tesla's SC network, which is intended for long-distance travel use, is planned to double yearly. For me and actually most people in the US now, there are several to choose from along my potential routes. The long charging time is a big factor in long distance travel, but since the vast majority of people don't travel long distance often probably not a deal breaker.

Originally Posted by Arthurrs

Then wait a few years when all the electric car owners face the prospect of replacing their batteries....the market will be flooded with old electric cars going for pennies on the dollar.

A few years? No. It's more like a good 8 years at the moment. Math shows that even if you had to pay for the battery replacement, you'd be ahead of a gas car in overall costs. In that 8 years, you'd have paid $20K more for gas alone at current prices. Further, in just 5 years, battery costs are expected to drop by 50%. Things are looking pretty good for the EV industry.

[Fundguy1]

500k units in 20q8? You're on crack. They'll be lucky to do 100k total production all models. They have orders, not deposits.

[Fundguy1]

On once the initial wave goes through sales will drop like a rock until the next one comes out. Like a new ipad.

[Fundguy1]

Can't wait till tesla goes belly up and closes so I don't have to hear about crappy ev cars for 20 more years.

[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Fundguy1

500k units in 20q8? You're on crack. They'll be lucky to do 100k total production all models. They have orders, not deposits.

Their run rate is scheduled to be 500K cars in 2018. But you keep missing the point and have no counter argument at all.

[zenmaster]

Originally Posted by Fundguy1

Can't wait till tesla goes belly up and closes so I don't have to hear about crappy ev cars for 20 more years.

lol! Good luck with that fantasy. Whether or not they go belly up, most automakers will be building EVs and they will become the rule rather than the exception of course. Simple economics.