[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What do you mean by that?

“1-handle” means the key number starts with “1”. Inflation with a 1-handle is 1.00-1.99%.

Common terminology among traders

[Tyga11]

So who has panic sold?

[DrVenture]

Unintended consequences. TSM is down around 14% too.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/27/nvid...-sell-off.html

[TallGibbs]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

So who has panic sold?

Not me...I'm in NVIDIA for the 15-20 year range so these day over day panics are not something to move me. Same thing with my mutual funds/target date funds which are mirroring the S&P500: long term investments are not for day trading.

[DrVenture]

NVDA has a 10-yr average annual return of 75%. It is my third biggest holding and I have held it far more than 10 years, but this is a blip. One I have been expecting. Investors got a bit exuberant IMO, I am surprised it took this long to adjust.

[MaxVO2]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

NVDA has a 10-yr average annual return of 75%. It is my third biggest holding and I have held it far more than 10 years, but this is a blip. One I have been expecting. Investors got a bit exuberant IMO, I am surprised it took this long to adjust.

****I have plenty as well and purchased more today. It's done well for me in the 6 years or so I have owned it.

[DrVenture]

Tomorrow we shall see how the equity and debt markets like the tariffs. If the markets do not fall, I may be taking steps to de-risk while events unfold.

DJIA futures are signaling a rout. Right now they are down 650 pts. Market open could be freefall.

[bagekko]

Yeah its gonna stink for a while, cause like the Deepseek nonsense, a lot of trading is done by auto bots gauging news and trends, I wont call it AI cause its not, I built stuff like it 10yrs ago.

Problem is the reasoning behind the tariffs is sound, though most do not read or learn about it, just the SHOCKING headlines. But couldn't things be attempted to be worked out with these countries before hand, instead of shooting first.... unless thats what they wanted cause all the politicians were shorting the market a week ago...

Eventually it will even itself out, hopefully it doesn't take to long.

But stuff in the US is too cheap anyways. Maybe with higher prices people will either demand quality or stop being such wasteful consumers.

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Tomorrow we shall see how the equity and debt markets like the tariffs. If the markets do not fall, I may be taking steps to de-risk while events unfold.

DJIA futures are signaling a rout. Right now they are down 650 pts. Market open could be freefall.

[ASAP]

i have no idea how the market will respond but US consumers are absolutely cooked by some of this... and inflation will roar back... especially if this push is combined w a tax cut AND a push to lower rates

[DrVenture]

This video is brief and gives a good overview of the new macro environment.
The risk premium has narrowed significantly in the last 8 years. Tudor-Jones uses the term "cross-currents" aptly.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/02/0...-this-off.html

Also, note that minus energy, the U.S. has a trade surplus with Canada. And that energy flow is beneficial to the U.S.

[Mani59]

Hello all,

A reminder that please do not post any political posts as these will be deleted and may lead to the entire thread being deleted.

We have, for several years, prohibited the posting of any religious and political posts which you can read about here.

Thanks, Mani

[Watching The World Burn]

Originally Posted by Mani59

Hello all,

A reminder that please do not post any political posts as these will be deleted and may lead to the entire thread being deleted.

We have, for several years, prohibited the posting of any religious and political posts which you can read about here.

Thanks, Mani

Mani - just a point of clarification - can we talk about the tariffs from an economic standpoint or is that considered political since it was enacted by a government?

In my mind its economical - I'm interested to see what the outcome is over the next few months both to the stock market but also to consumers as a whole. But if considered political by the mods then I won't say anything in any subsequent posts.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I didn't mention politics at all and my post was deleted.

You did (slightly) and it triggered someone to respond.

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Why did people like the admin's post? You all want censorship here? Sad stuff

Because you guys were about to derail the thread and better to lose a few posts than the whole thread.

[MaxVO2]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

You did (slightly) and it triggered someone to respond.



Because you guys were about to derail the thread and better to lose a few posts than the whole thread.

****Yea, it's a great thread IMO and it would be a shame to lose it. Helpful tips, etc..

[Pauly Wauly]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I didn't mention politics at all and my post was deleted.

If you don't understand what you said in your post than you really need help. You were throwing more wood in the fire on a really sensitive issue that can cause millions of people to lose their jobs.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

You did (slightly) and it triggered someone to respond.



Because you guys were about to derail the thread and better to lose a few posts than the whole thread.

Okay -you're right. I get it now. I will refrain from that talk...I get what you are saying.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Problem is the reasoning behind the tariffs is sound, though most do not read or learn about it, just the SHOCKING headlines. But couldn't things be attempted to be worked out with these countries before hand, instead of shooting first....

It's all theater and yeah, it would be more effective for everyone if the governments would talk, even forcibly if need be, before jumping in all and shooting first as you put it.

It is just so strange to me. We are a capitalistic country and businesses seek to make the most money possible. The US as a whole (i.e., government, business, workers, and consumers) decided decades ago that it would become a service/consumer-based society. A significant amount of manufacturing moved out of the US and workers and society adapted. Businesses have thrived, consumers have thrived, households have thrived, etc. And now, here we are, trying to punish other countries through tariffs? What am I missing here given our country's decisions of the past to make our economy and work force the way it is? We're punishing other countries for our own decisions. LOL

People certainly are NOT worse off now than they were back in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, financially speaking. Are they happier? Very debatable, but that's another topic all together.

It is a GLOBAL economy now. You push manufacturing to less fortunate countries. Those countries get the opportunity to grow, expand, improve, you name it. Everyone generally wins with lower prices, more competition, more products, etc. Everyone adapts. We're not going back to the 1950s US way of life. Good luck finding enough manufacturing workers.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Okay -you're right. I get it now. I will refrain from that talk...I get what you are saying.

All good. We all move forward.

[DrVenture]

Moving on, here is a summary of the cover story from the Jan 27 Barron's.

“High Interest Rates Are Hammering Investors. What Lies Ahead Could be Worse.” Rising bond yields are bad for bond holders, borrowers and stocks. Longer-term rates aren’t under the direct control of the Fed (although to some extent, QE lowers them, QT increases them, and we are in the QT mode) and those cannot be just ordered down US Government interest expense is rising rapidly and is now well above the defense budget. The annual budget deficit is 6% of GDP and the total debt is 98% of GDP. US fiscal policy is loose. Bond vigilantes have woken up. The 10-yr yield is 4.63% and it may be headed to 6% (inflation +3%, real GDP growth +3%). Mortgage rates are around 7%. Many startups, early-stage companies, low-rated companies and those with floating-rate debt are hurting and are having difficulty in rolling over (refinancing) their maturing debt. Stock P/Es are also negatively impacted by higher rates.

Interest rates bottomed in 03/2020 and are now in multiyear up-cycle (20-40 years?). Inflationary global factors include deglobalization, geopolitics, trade frictions and tariffs, etc. DOGE is unlikely to make a dent in the deficit or budget – 60% of the budget is Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid; 13% debt servicing, 12% defense, so that leaves only 15% discretionary spending for all else. Treasury Secretary nominee BESSENT has a 3-3-3 plan: deficit 3% of GDP, economic growth +3% (real), domestic oil production boost 3 million barrels/day. The CBO projections (generally optimistic) for future deficits and debt are concerning. If the Treasuries sell off, there may also be a dollar crisis."

[DrVenture]

As to the "3-3-3 plan", we are already exporting 3 million barrels a day. Oil companies are going to resist increasing production which will cause oversupply and hurt profits. Bringing down the deficit is likely to drag GDP down with it, as GDP is comprised of 25% government spending. And we have had 3% economic growth for years. "Real GDP" refers to GDP after inflation. Which would mean ~6% GDP growth under current circumstances. Totally unrealistic for a developed economy with a negative birthrate. And even moreso, when fueling inflation with deglobalization and import taxes.

These sound like the promises of someone who is hoping no one is keeping score.

[DrVenture]

Yesterday was a peek at how the markets will react to tariffs. The reversal told the same story. Which leads me to strategize. My portfolio is up 4% YTD. I could exit to MMF right now and get 5%, basically risk free. That would put me at ~8.5% gain at year's end. More if I exit a little higher and use ultra short term bonds to good effect. I ask myself, do I want to take the sure thing, or roll the dice after two straight years of +25% gains.

It looks like I have about a month to figure it out.

[IanH]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Yesterday was a peek at how the markets will react to tariffs. The reversal told the same story. Which leads me to strategize. My portfolio is up 4% YTD. I could exit to MMF right now and get 5%, basically risk free. That would put me at ~8.5% gain at year's end. More if I exit a little higher and use ultra short term bonds to good effect. I ask myself, do I want to take the sure thing, or roll the dice after two straight years of +25% gains.

It looks like I have about a month to figure it out.

thinking about the same thing just now. gonna wait for nvda earnings on the 26th