02-20-2012, 10:16 PM | #2619 | |
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Welcome! Well as I was reading an article on Marketwatch regarding greece I came across this: "With unemployment already running over 20%, the approved minimum-wage cuts of 22% and planned reduction of the public work force by a fifth by 2015 may leave Greece questioning the price of euro-area membership,” said Carl Paraskevas, director of sector economics at Lloyds TSB in London, in a note to clients." For the Visual people like me: And well it got me curious to see the average unemployment currently in the Eurozone and I came across this : Interesting how Greece has double the average unemployment in the eurozone now. With the austerity plan now passed I'd expect that number to rise since im sure there will be just a few government jobs are going to be cut in the spending cuts . I would also expect to see the unemployment to rise even further due to the tax hikes on all the business in Greece that havent already been burned down! Greece is in a choke hold if they leave the eurozone they'll end up having to go back to the drachma and print a sh*t load of money in order to pay off their debts, which will lead to another Zimbabwe story of hyper-inflation. Where they will eventually have to end up using a foreign currency as Zimbabwe did. The Europe leaders wont allow this and well have a breaking new headline like this one that just appeared: "Euro Zone Finance Ministers Reach Deal on Greek Package; Financing to Total 130 Billion Euros: Reuters" Further kicking the can down the road.. Just a quick summary for those who are unaware of whats going on.
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Last edited by Hisam135i; 02-20-2012 at 10:45 PM.. |
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02-20-2012, 10:42 PM | #2621 |
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You sir would be amazed LMAO i ran into a few people at my finance club meeting on Friday and lets just say it helped inspire that post hahah
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02-20-2012, 10:52 PM | #2622 | |
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Best thing he taught the class, many times the news stories will write a title and change the "up" or "down" in the same title through the day as it made sense, as well as changing the reason in the title and leaving everything else. He really tried to drive the point that its not an exact science and that decisions need to be made on many different levels. |
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02-20-2012, 11:01 PM | #2623 |
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Yeah the club is still relatively new so it isnt exactly the greatest , but with time people will start to pick up! I can imagine haha having an ex fund manager would be awesome, whats better than learning someone with real world experience
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02-21-2012, 01:15 AM | #2625 |
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02-21-2012, 10:32 AM | #2626 |
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I know this is a technical analysis thread, but I had to pass this info along.
http://9to5mac.com/2012/02/20/china-...-on-march-9th/ Mobile subscribers in China by operator November 2011 Operator Subscribers 3G users China Mobile 644 million 48 million China Unicom 196 million 37 million China Telecom 123 million 33 million Total 963 million 118 million Sources: China Mobile; China Unicom; China Telecom via: mobiThinking |
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02-22-2012, 11:27 AM | #2627 |
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Looking for sharp selloff on short term basis...but no longer bearish for IT and LT...we will get some bad news soon(Iran, Euro CDS probs, etc) and this will lead to sharp selloff...but selloff will be fast and sharp and most wont be positioned for it as it will happen fairly quickly.
But after selloff, odds now favor a run at the all time highs in Dow and SPX...dont see a significant selloff until summer...jmho. |
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02-22-2012, 05:06 PM | #2628 |
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TVIX creation units suspended by Credit Suisse.
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2012/...ion-units.html Supply now a closed-system. Demand will drive the price now, we shall see what happens. Gold, Bonds, Equities and Oil all trading up atm. Strong sell-signal. Morgan Stanley released client statement speculating a double-digit drop in the indexes that correlates with past historic performance in such scenarios. Mact, What levels are you looking at for the sell-off? I'm thinking a double-digit drop in the indexes. 1260 (7% pull back) back to 200 dma for a conservative est, but 10%+ drop is viable near low 1200's.
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02-22-2012, 07:15 PM | #2629 |
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Hi Vanity...do you have a copy of the Morgan Stanley Client memo?
With Greece priced in, I'm guessing that news of Iran/Syria will trigger the sell-off. My indicators have concurred that the market has been overbought...but it's strange to see VIX not behave the way I expected... |
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02-23-2012, 04:52 AM | #2630 | ||||
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From Financial times: MS Graham Secker's 2012 outlook, and outlook for the next decade. End of the "Debt Super cycle" Give it a good read. In it he believes what we see in 2012 will be the pattern we see for the next 10 years. His outlook is the end of the continuous debt-borrowing of the US. He compares it to the only applicable insistence in history where they occurred: 1930's US Depression, and the Japanese's 20 years of recession. Quote:
Quote:
Here's also a copy of the client memo: Quote:
Not the best outlook, imo.
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02-23-2012, 10:58 AM | #2631 | |
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roughly 100 spx pts
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02-23-2012, 10:02 PM | #2632 |
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Tread carefully and be careful at shorting at the first signs of a top. As you can see in the picture below, market tends to try once more for a second high before actually dropping down significantly.
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02-24-2012, 02:05 AM | #2633 |
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Anyone watching the dow transportation averages as well as the Russell 2000? Looks like the break of the trend lines:
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02-26-2012, 12:55 PM | #2634 | |
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I had a shit load of $135 SPY puts on Friday and sold them before the market closed Was stupid for doing so and regret selling them now. On Friday there was a ton of March SPY puts being bought. The $135 March SPY puts were being bought up in huge numbers on Friday. I reckon that on Monday we see a good drop. I am guessing a 2% drop. Let's see what happens on Monday. |
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02-26-2012, 03:35 PM | #2635 |
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ECRI came out last week, reaffirmed their recession call on the US. Their track record has been 100% so far. It was a 6 month call made in August. Meaning it's due March/April. They are calling for contraction in US growth.
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02-27-2012, 10:06 PM | #2637 | |
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It looks like the bulls are still running, and I'm thoroughly impressed by how much overshot has happened on their part. Never thought we'd be challenging these levels right off the October bottoms, so good part on them. However, I'm more bearish now as the longer and straighter we go in a line upwards, the deeper the fall down. It's sort of like falling from the first floor, except now we're on tenth. Conservatively, I think 1250-1260 is where we're going to correct to in the ST. Thats just, again, a healthy correction to the 200dma. Any factor of bad news coming in, and I really think we'll be retesting some ugly lows. There are some out there who are calling for 1000 SPX by end of Q1 (April). Seems far-fetched right now saying those things from 13,000 DOW, but then again it was far-fetched imagining 13,000 DOW just a few months ago.
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03-02-2012, 03:46 AM | #2640 |
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Someone purchased 24,000 SPX weekly puts with strike point at 1150. That's a 20% decline from current levels. The index needs to drop 10% to even make profit on this trade. The put expires next Friday, so, whichever institution just made that bet better hope for a huge 10% decline in 7 days, or lose that capital. Interesting to see that up there. Not sure what to make of such a put-play.
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