[shipill]

ok so who's buying today ?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Ouch! AAPL at $628?

We saw today that jobless claims decreased more than expected and then the markets sold off (QE reasons). That would hint that tomorrow's jobless rate would have a decrease bias, but that may cause the markets to sell off instead of go up (just like today).

Yep! Unemployment drops to 8.1% and the markets sell off 1.4%. This should further run home the message to everyone that this rally is completely QE induced and not based on "improvement", as today is an improvement in Jon numbers.

I hope you didn't get crushed too much with AAPL falling more than 2% today


I also want to tell you guys that small speculators are now the only group net Long this market. Commercial and large speculators are all net short. This doesn't happen very often, but when it does it's "typically" a losing hand for small specs. I say typically because small specs can win, but usually they don't. So if we start heading south on this market, it's going to get real ugly real fast. You will know who's driving the train.

[EvosM3]

Made some money off of GMCR calls and sold. Then I bought an Apple put and sold for a profit but I also bought some calls for both GOOG and AAPL. The double top on the /ES is scaring me but with this weak volume I feel like we will see a bounce.

[scorcherjf]

Ouch man... the gambler's ruin type of strategy doesn't usually work well when it involves options, the theta alone will kill you. You're betting on not only price but also time. Be careful...

Originally Posted by EvosM3

Made some money off of GMCR calls and sold. Then I bought an Apple put and sold for a profit but I also bought some calls for both GOOG and AAPL. The double top on the /ES is scaring me but with this weak volume I feel like we will see a bounce.

Anyway, I love how this thread lights up like a christmas tree on down days but is dead silent on up days... buncha bears here =)

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by scorcherjf

Ouch man... the gambler's ruin type of strategy doesn't usually work well when it involves options, the theta alone will kill you. You're betting on not only price but also time. Be careful...

Anyway, I love how this thread lights up like a christmas tree on down days but is dead silent on up days... buncha bears here =)

Hahaha, I've promised to become a bull after the crash. Then the algo inside me will inverse

[Hisam135i]

Tomorrow should be a fun day

[r0wr]

Any bears gonna short the rebound in the next couple of days?

[Hisam135i]

Originally Posted by r0wr

Any bears gonna short the rebound in the next couple of days?

I've had put options on ge since last week and spxu

[Hisam135i]

thoughts anyone?

[Mr. Liu]

whoa wtf theres a trading thread on here??

Anyways, i've been holding short aapl since 610, covered today at 561. Reshorted EOD at 570. Spanked that trade hard since earnings.

Long UVXY commons, long weekly VXX 16 puts sprinkled with some 17s.

Some SPY 133/135 put spreads rolling out into june/july.

50% cash.

IMO we have seen the top for this year. All indices broke 50ma/ april lows supports. Specifically on SPY i am looking at the march gap, then if that breaks on higher volume theres the Feb gap at 132.

Might get a small bounce tomorrow on low volume to work off oversold levels, even though RSI isn't showing too much.

See ya!

[EvosM3]

Did anyone notice that at one point the SPY was just .42 away from touching the 100 day SMA? I was prepared for the EOD bounce and went long towards the bottom.

[Vanity]

Top is in. Confirmed to have come in for most indexes in month of March when we were discussing it. We might get one more rally to really push things in May, but thereafter watch out for summer. A lot of things have happened these last two weeks that have actually changed the game, cannot be short term to mid term bullish anymore. Trade accordingly.

Mact you still here?

[r0wr]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Top is in. Confirmed to have come in for most indexes in month of March when we were discussing it. We might get one more rally to really push things in May, but thereafter watch out for summer. A lot of things have happened these last two weeks that have actually changed the game, cannot be short term to mid term bullish anymore. Trade accordingly.

Mact you still here?

I'm buying tomorrow's dip but will be getting rid as soon as I see our next push.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by r0wr

I'm buying tomorrow's dip but will be getting rid as soon as I see our next push.

Agreed. I believe every rally is to be shorted into now. Either cusp of major correction or new bear market of -20% or more.

[r0wr]

Bears have been doing work and I'm still holding SPXU and HDGE for my short positions in the market. I believe that that we will see a little rebound soon that will fail and we will continue going down. Be careful when longing this market as the trend is obviously down.

[EvosM3]

I bought some weekly apple puts to hedge my long position. Man am I in the shitter for buying at such high prices.

[Vanity]

Been holding TVIX since 5.84

Hold onto your panties, men. Someone bring back that guy who said our predictions were wrong. Bring him before the Bears.

[Bols]

Any predictions on the Grexit in Europe? Some hint to currency printers as de la rue in UK but doesn't the Greek National bank have it's own print capacity for dachma's ?

[EvosM3]

Has apple finally hit a bottom?

[turbosc297]

So how high do you guys suspect TVIX will rise in near months?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by turbosc297

So how high do you guys suspect TVIX will rise in near months?

No one can predict the move magnitude for an ETN which is 2x leveraged to follow a derivative based on the volatility of price actions over multiple days extended into the future.

But it will be a handsome return on the way to the bottom. Selling TVIX will be based more on when VIX tops and the market bottoms, than what price TVIX reaches as that is subject to 2x compounding, tracking error, and premiums. What price target do I think it will easily reach though? At least 20. After that, the sky is the limit (quite seriously). The past performance of TVIX in a crash will be in the hundreds of percentage ROI. Take a glance at last years action.

[r0wr]

TVIX isn't an ETN which is supposed to be held for long periods of time. I'm sure Vanity knows what he's dealing with but to those who see TVIX as a money maker, believe me when I tell you it is not unless you really know it's movements. Tread carefully.