[f82fanatic]

Originally Posted by 4MULA_1

You really can't compare the take rate of a manual vs DCT when the DCT costs $3k more!

To truly gauge the take rate they'd both need to be the same price. I'm willing to bet that if they're both the same price, that the take rate of the manuals would drop by more than 60%

Nah, I don't think people pick an +/- 80k car's transmission based on a 3k option...

[c63er]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

True, but most timelines have ubiquitous EV adoption as a nearer reality than widespread autonomous vehicle use. And EV drivetrain designs are all converging on a single speed transmission. So, by the time we have vehicles that drive us around, the EV will already be well on the way to obsoleting the ICE and the multispeed transmission with it.

A good thought. However EV timelines are significantly flawed as they make several assumptions and are projections based on a small cohort of initial sales.

What we see around us now is the small cohort of initial sales. As we know from other industries there is a large gap between initial sales booms and widespread adoption which comes at a much slower rate. Much slower.

For example the iPhone X may have sold 50 million phones since launch which sounds like a lot but there is a massive chasm between that and widespread adoption. It's market share is somewhere between 2 and 8%. It's like that for every product.

One must also account for the serious cost and environmental impact of these cars. And the elephant in the room, we cannot produce nearly enough batteries to use to replace very car with EV.

It all sounds good but is still very much a pipe dream until we see further significant progress in battery technology and also a new generation of humans born and then raised in an EV society (which is the current generation). You will likely be able to buy a gas car for the rest of your life if you choose too.

[Rxpert]

Originally Posted by 4MULA_1

You really can't compare the take rate of a manual vs DCT when the DCT costs $3k more!

To truly gauge the take rate they'd both need to be the same price. I'm willing to bet that if they're both the same price, that the take rate of the manuals would drop by more than 60%

I'd disagree.

I don't think there are a lot of customers purchasing a brand new M car for $60/$70/80K who chose the manual solely to save $3000.

Most people who chose the DCT probably choose it because it is faster, more technologically advanced, is better on the track, and still maintains a bit of the "manual" aura.

I'm basing this on personal experience from few people who love manual transmissions, but chose the DCT because they viewed it as a state-of-the-art modern manual transmission per say. Heck, I'm a die hard manual fan and almost chose the DCT for that very reason.

However speaking with them & myself, if it was simply Automatic vs. Manual it would be a no brainer choice —> Manual FTW!

For this reason in my opinion if the next G series M cars come with the choice between the ZF automatic and manual for the same price (without the DCT option at all), then I think the take rates on manuals may actually increase!

[upsidedownfunnel]

Originally Posted by 4MULA_1

You really can't compare the take rate of a manual vs DCT when the DCT costs $3k more!

To truly gauge the take rate they'd both need to be the same price. I'm willing to bet that if they're both the same price, that the take rate of the manuals would drop by more than 60%

I doubt it. People who want a manual get a manual. People who want an automatic get the DCT.

[mercedesc63]

BMW needs manuals for its M division because thats its bread and butter, and there would be outrage if it wasn't available.

Now that BMW is going with automatics for its M cars, they will need the manuals even more because an automatic will never be a dual clutch or manual.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by c63er

A good thought. However EV timelines are significantly flawed as they make several assumptions and are projections based on a small cohort of initial sales.

Don’t want to take the thread off topic, but will simply say that the 10’s of billions being invested into EV R&D by the industry is what is likely to write the story. Once this investment brings the cost to manufacture an EV below the cost to manufacture an ICE vehicle, we should not be surprised to see a paradigm shift similar to the one that led the iPhone (and its competitors) in your example to essentially wipe out the traditional wired phone.

If you want to know the future, the best crystal ball you have is to follow the money.

[mkoesel]

One interesting fact about a potential 6MT G80 is that it would be the very last high performance sedan on the market with a manual transmission.

Ther are only four sedans left in the USA that offer a manual transmission paired with an engine that has more than four cylinders and more than ~300hp. Three of them are BMWs - the F80 M3, the F30 340i, and the F08 M6. All of those will be gone by next February or sooner. And the other one, the ATS-V, is also done after MY2018.

[c63er]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Don’t want to take the thread off topic, but will simply say that the 10’s of billions being invested into EV R&D by the industry is what is likely to write the story. Once this investment brings the cost to manufacture an EV below the cost to manufacture an ICE vehicle, we should not be surprised to see a paradigm shift similar to the one that led the iPhone (and it’s competitors) in your example to essentially wipe out the traditional wired phone.

If you want to know the future, the best crystal ball you have is to follow the money.

Yes this is going off topic so let's end it here.

But yes you are right the day that EV spending outstrips gasoline is the day that EV will likely have taken over. But even when that day comes it will take time for full adoption.

Until then bmw should recreate the e46 m3 with a manual of course

[Germanauto]

More proof that Audi is for poseurs who want to look like they are driving a sports car, while BMW is what actual enthusiasts buy!

[smr123]

Awesome they are behind this!

[eljay]

Excellent news!

[hinckley]

Well, I'm 60. Been driving MTs for over 40 years. Hopefully, I've now got one more gen of MTs that will get me thru the next ten years. Don't know what I'm gonna do in my 70s, but at least that decision's pushed off for a while now. Very

[JayPichardo]

Save the manuals!

[flyaway]

Now, being an engineer, I would say from a rational standpoint that even though the manual gearbox is lighter than an automated gearbox, it uses more fuel and is slower, so it doesn’t really make sense . . . But from the emotional standpoint, a lot of customers say, ‘I don’t care, I want to have one.’ As long as we have these take rates on M2, and also the M3 and M4, we’re going to offer manuals, because we listen to our customers. Even though as an engineer I’d say we don’t necessarily need one. If demand is so high, then why not fulfill it?

I don't like this Audi fanboy and it's a shame afaic that he's in charge of the M division... just wait and see...

[Pic18]

Originally Posted by c63er

I have a feeling if BMW simply started making the E46 M3 again without any change from the original and simply called it the 2020 M3 they would sell amazingly well here.

They should definitely release the E46 M3 again with zero changes, or maybe they could fix the rear floor panel/subframe mount points that crack, Vanos system that fails, rod bearings that blow up, constant pressure valve that leaks and about 10 other issues with the E46. Also they need to make a seat low enough for a normal human to fit in.

I know there is a lot of sarcasm in that statement but I am pretty sure they already make a modern E46, it is called the M2 and has no where near that amount of issues as an E46.

[c63er]

Originally Posted by Pic18

They should definitely release the E46 M3 again with zero changes, or maybe they could fix the rear floor panel/subframe mount points that crack, Vanos system that fails, rod bearings that blow up, constant pressure valve that leaks and about 10 other issues with the E46. Also they need to make a seat low enough for a normal human to fit in.

I know there is a lot of sarcasm in that statement but I am pretty sure they already make a modern E46, it is called the M2 and has no where near that amount of issues as an E46.

Most enthusiasts would take the flawed e46, z3, etc over their modern anodine counterparts. The reliable Toyota like f generation cars are reliable sure but they are also boring.

If you just want reliable and boring there's no reason to buy a BMW other then badge. Many other car companies do reliable even better.

I'll take driving involvement and fun any day over a modern f series BMW and all that brings with it.

I think many others would as well, which is the reason for the original statement.

I find very little in common between the m2 and e46 m3 aside from 2 doors and a lot of marketing.

[ORIGIN M.]

Originally Posted by flyaway

"The bad news is that if we one day have autonomous cars, then the manual cannot work anymore," BMW M chief Frank van Meel told us at a recent press event in Spain, "so that would be, let's say, the natural end. But that's still some time away."

"The BMW M2 Competition still has the manual for a reason, because in the U.S. we have more than a 50 percent take rate on manual transmissions for the M2," he said. "Buyers vote with their wallets for manual transmissions. Now, being an engineer, I would say from a rational standpoint that even though the manual gearbox is lighter than an automated gearbox, it uses more fuel and is slower, so it doesn't really make sense . . . But from the emotional standpoint, a lot of customers say, 'I don't care, I want to have one.' As long as we have these take rates on M2, and also the M3 and M4, we're going to offer manuals, because we listen to our customers. Even though as an engineer I'd say we don't necessarily need one. If demand is so high, then why not fulfill it?"


I don't like this Audi fanboy and it's a shame afaic that he's in charge of the M division... just wait and see...

He's an unemotional engineer, go figure.

[akkando]

Originally Posted by Pic18

They should definitely release the E46 M3 again with zero changes, or maybe they could fix the rear floor panel/subframe mount points that crack, Vanos system that fails, rod bearings that blow up, constant pressure valve that leaks and about 10 other issues with the E46. Also they need to make a seat low enough for a normal human to fit in.

I know there is a lot of sarcasm in that statement but I am pretty sure they already make a modern E46, it is called the M2 and has no where near that amount of issues as an E46.

In all seriousness I think there would be good business in doing throwback cars that are only updated to fix major issues, and meet safety standards. I guess there is too much wasted opportunity cost though because the factory could be making something else that probably shares parts with other modern cars.

But yeah I bet BMW could charge a pretty penny for a brand new with warranty e46 m3 with updated subframe etc. Just probably don't offer navigation and just have the basics.

[bassfrk402]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

One interesting fact about a potential 6MT G80 is that it would be the very last high performance sedan on the market with a manual transmission.

Ther are only four sedans left in the USA that offer a manual transmission paired with an engine that has more than four cylinders and more than ~300hp. Three of them are BMWs - the F80 M3, the F30 340i, and the F08 M6. All of those will be gone by next February or sooner. And the other one, the ATS-V, is also done after MY2018.

It took much time and deliberation to buy my current car, but this is truly the dilemma that is apparent with the lack of diversity with manual US spec cars. I ended up getting the 340i 6MT (a huge upgrade from a Civic SI 6MT), and for purists out there, current 6MT are nothing like the past-- rev match, shift change reminders, less efficient than DCT

[Poochie]

For at least until Autonomous Driving is fully implement, BMW will always offer a manual option in their lower-tier M cars..

They are not just going to leave potential customers on the table..

But honestly, one of big reasons the manual take rate is so skewed is because of the $2,900 up-charge for the DCT. When the ZF8 is a free auto option in the M cars, I could see the take rate lowering..

[ORIGIN M.]

Nice to know considering they've gotten really cheap in so many other areas.

M-DCT is now being replaced by an eight speed automatic.

Soon enough we'll be down to One & Two Speeds.

[Ghostriderf80]

Originally Posted by Franco3000

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/bm...issionsfor-now

I suppose money talks. Silly to have a manual gearbox.