05-11-2022, 07:39 PM | #6975 |
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I keep trying to get to 10 percent cash by adding to my account monthly and letting it sit. But then I see "bargains" and I buy them. And the bargains drop 30 percent the next day
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05-11-2022, 08:11 PM | #6976 |
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You are trying to catch a falling knife, and you are getting cut in the process.
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05-11-2022, 08:42 PM | #6977 |
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i mean if he's averaging in and doesn't need the money its fine. market will eventually recover. dumping a hoard of money in at once trying to predict the bottom is a more risky strategy.
i'm waiting for the fed to give some good news before i start adding back in. although... tesla looks very enticing at 750 today lol
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05-11-2022, 08:54 PM | #6978 |
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Meh I don't have the time, patience or knowledge to fuck around with this shit. I mainly use robo investors like wealthfront and buy some index funds on my own. I have the robo stuff to invest automatically every week, when I hear shit is bad I tell it to invest more $$ each week. When shit seems to get real bad, and I remember, I buy more shares of my index funds.
I keep a few extra bucks on the side to gamble, but been too busy to mess with that lately. |
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05-11-2022, 10:12 PM | #6979 |
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Inflation decreased in the most recent data release from today. Only the WSJ is reporting it that way, as far as I have seen.
New money for me is going into cash or ibonds. Then redeployment back into the market when the time is right. |
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05-12-2022, 11:25 AM | #6981 |
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Not yet.
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05-12-2022, 11:42 AM | #6983 |
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Not really. Headline number was 8.3% vs 8.5% last month. So, yes, on the surface, down. If you actually dig a little, though, it's not such a positive story (surprise!).
The m-o-m number that the administration was crowing about was the "all items" increase of 0.3%, vs 1.2% in March. But that was driven by a 6.1% decrease in the gasoline index, which has since reversed, thus illustrating why most people focus on the "x-food and energy" (aka "core inflation") number. Unfortunately, the core numbers actually got way worse. In March the core figure was +0.3%, BUT in April it was +0.6%. So, core inflation went up quite a bit. Note that last month, the administration was emphasizing the core number, but this month they're conveniently emphasizing the the "all items" figure, since it better supports their narrative that they're "doing something" about inflation. Agenda much? I get it, it's politics, but really, they do think we're that stupid. No matter. Why was the core number up so much? Because higher housing costs are just starting to be incorporated in that index, since there's a lag between housing costs going up and them showing up there. In April, shelter+electricity+utilities (gas, mostly) were up 4.3% over March. Given that none of those three are going down any time soon, no matter what happens to food+energy we are looking at 7-8% inflation through the end of the year, at least. Details of the figures I quote above here - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf |
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05-12-2022, 11:55 AM | #6984 | |
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We've got to see the VIX hit ~40, even if it's an intraday number, before a bottom can be called. When that happens we could easily be another 20% down, though likely more like 5-10% in the broader indexes. As I said in a previous post, AAPL needs to break below $150 (it has), the S&P needs to hit $380 (has not), and the VIX 40 (has not). When those three things happen at the same time, I'm gonna start nibbling. Until then, patience. IMHO, of course. |
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05-12-2022, 12:33 PM | #6986 | |
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I'll be buying more Appl this week as I always do each month. And I'll also be buying more Appl in my kids portfolio too. They already have about $50k each in there and they are only 9 because I started buying when they were born. They'll either buy me a car when they take over the account, or tell me to fuck off. .
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05-12-2022, 12:35 PM | #6987 |
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05-12-2022, 01:27 PM | #6988 |
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We haven't reached the bottom and the market will be wave after wave of chaos until the following happens:
1) China dumps it's "dynamic" COVID approach. This won't happen until Xi is reelected. 2) Peace in the Ukraine. This could be years unless there is a Russian regime change. 3) The chip shortage ends. We're looking at another 1+ year and is somewhat related to how China will continue to deal with COVID. IMO, we're probably in a pretty terrible market situation for a few years. Too much world-wide chaos and way too much market growth over the past 8+ years is the cause.
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05-12-2022, 01:44 PM | #6989 | |
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05-12-2022, 01:46 PM | #6990 |
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05-12-2022, 01:53 PM | #6992 |
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05-12-2022, 02:01 PM | #6993 |
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05-12-2022, 03:23 PM | #6994 | |
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all i know for sure is that if i cash out now at a loss, the market will go green and recover 20% next week. And if i buy more today we'll see a hard drop tomorrow.
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05-12-2022, 03:40 PM | #6995 | |
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05-12-2022, 04:44 PM | #6996 |
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I pulled out of BBY at a loss in my current position, though was green overall for the year. It has dropped by 25 points since where I sold it. I've accepted that right now, it's just not worth the risk to invest. I'm willing to miss the upside, but be stress free in all this volatility. There are no positives economically or geopolitically that say equities are a good place to be right now. Moreover, the run up from the time Covid started is not warranted, IMO.
It's like entering the housing market right now. Just can't justify the absurdity. The downside of sitting on cash, with inflation the way that it is, the time value of money. Getting poorer every day relative to where I was yesterday. |
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