10-14-2022, 11:56 AM | #7305 | ||
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10-14-2022, 11:58 AM | #7306 | ||
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10-14-2022, 02:22 PM | #7307 | |
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10-14-2022, 03:02 PM | #7308 |
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This. And, the biggest rallies are in the early days of a new bull market. Which is why, if you're an investor (as opposed to a trader) they say that the key is "time in the market" and not "timing the market".
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10-15-2022, 07:14 AM | #7309 |
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I would caution against using past performance/trade strategies in the current market. The fundamentals today are wildly different:
1. We're transitioning from a 30 year period of declining interest rates to increasing rates 2. Credit is contracting 3. Governments are beginning to compete for cash 4. Offshoring is beginning to reverse 5. # of boomers leaving the workforce has not yet peaked 6. Shortage of workers / aging of the population 7. Decrease in productivity, especially amongst the young 8. Decoupling from Asia (China) and Saudi Arabia 9. Madness of strict "Green" policies upon energy markets 10. General geopolitical instability Add in a generalized revolt against an "elite" viewed as completely out of touch (painting with a broad brush), and we've got a powder keg that is going to make the markets much more volatile and difficult to trade moving forward. I don't bet against America and I'm positive about the future, but the times, they are a'changin' faster than we can keep up. |
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10-15-2022, 08:26 AM | #7310 |
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So buy low and sell high?
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10-15-2022, 08:30 AM | #7311 | |
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10-15-2022, 08:36 AM | #7312 |
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If you have been trading at all like you were during the Trump admin, you have lost a lot of money. Buy your convictions only and hold, if you must be in the market. My father in law took all his money out before the inauguration. That seems to have been the best move. As long as the war rages on in Russia, the markets are going to be shaky.
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10-15-2022, 11:18 AM | #7313 |
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I think we need to separate trading from investing...trading right now you can make a killing with the volatility. Investing I guess is like trying to catch a falling knife
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10-15-2022, 12:13 PM | #7314 | |
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I heard a good interview the other day in which the interviewee opined that we were going to be stuck with inflation for quite some time due to 1) declining labor force/productivity, 2) de-globalization, and 3) de-carbonization. The "3Ds", he called them. That seemed spot on to me. Boomers retiring, on/near-shoring, and weaning off of oil are all going to be drivers of higher prices for the forseeable, I think. |
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10-15-2022, 12:38 PM | #7315 |
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You know all those loss porn posts and memes you see? Peoples whole portfolios falling to near zero? Those are from people who though calls and puts would be easy due to volatility. While I use those techniques too now is and even harder time to play that game. But as an investor with a long term horizon your future self will thank your current self for putting money into good stocks, etfs right now. Your future self is going to hate you if you sell right now and sit on the sidelines like the bears are telling you.
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10-15-2022, 01:19 PM | #7316 | |
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10-15-2022, 02:57 PM | #7317 | ||
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10-18-2022, 02:50 PM | #7319 |
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I don't think we're at the bottom yet (trend is still lower highs and lower lows) so I don't want to buy anything outright, and while 4% on 1-yr Treasuries is certainly an improvement, it's still a negative real rate. So, broker and I agreed to use the cash in my IRAs to sell Jan '23 cash-secured puts on several big names. Strike prices all about 10% below current (AAPL, for instance, @$130) and all stocks that I would be happy to own at those prices if the options get exercised. Collected premiums to the tune of about a 13.5% annual rate-of-return. If I'm wrong and the trend reverses before the end of January, I'll likely buy the options back to free-up that cash and buy the stock.
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10-18-2022, 04:09 PM | #7320 |
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I buy and sell stocks, don't mess with options. Bought a large amount of AAPL shares @142/share. I'm sure it will go lower, but I'm buying for the long term and if it drops significantly, I will use margin to dollar cost average. For now though, I'm all in on AAPL in my discretionary account (e.g. not my corporate Roth). My diversified portfolio also has a rental property, but right now a good chunk is AAPL stock. Here's for continued innovation over the next 5 years.
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10-18-2022, 06:07 PM | #7321 | |
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10-18-2022, 06:30 PM | #7322 | |
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10-18-2022, 07:42 PM | #7324 | |
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But, you will be losing money. Inflation isn't likely going to be below 4% anytime during those two years (IMHO), so if you do hold them you're pretty much guaranteed to lose money. Could you lose more in stocks? Maybe. History says that they (and other hard assets) are the only way to beat inflation in the long run, though. And it would be very unusual to see the market down two years from now, based on how much it's already declined. Could happen, of course, but that's a place I don't personally want to go in my head. Too scary. |
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10-18-2022, 08:13 PM | #7326 | |
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