09-19-2024, 03:27 PM | #8361 | |
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LFPR has been rising steadily since bottoming in April 2020. Way too many unknown factors to know what drives this number. Ironically many complained when headline inflation (Aug annualized 2.5%) was higher than core inflation (August annualized 3.2). Now it is the opposite and some are still complaining. The reason for this difference is the drop in food and energy prices. BLS releases these and other inflation numbers monthly. No single measure tells the whole story.
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09-19-2024, 03:27 PM | #8362 |
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Really not that hard to find. Literally everyone was talking about it yesterday.
CHAIR POWELL. So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data, including the payroll numbers. We're not discarding those. I mean we'll certainly look at those, but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the QCEW adjustment, which you referred to. |
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09-19-2024, 03:33 PM | #8363 | |
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The key concepts are bolded. It doesn't pay to try and infer things from Fed minutes. "Economics can be defined in a few different ways. It's the study of scarcity, the study of how people use resources and respond to incentives, or the study of decision-making. It often involves topics like wealth and finance, but it's not all about money." This is a subset of psychology, as it involves people's behavior. As such, and being extremely complex, it is as much art as science. Hence, words like "mentally tend".
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09-19-2024, 03:46 PM | #8364 | |
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We had a recession in 2020, just 4 years ago. 2022 brought a near 25% S&P correction that lasted 287 days. Less than two years ago. We also saw a 13% drop (correction) in the Nasdaq this year, along with an 8.5% S&P drop.
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09-19-2024, 03:48 PM | #8365 | |
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Yes, "people talk". I generally ignore them.
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09-19-2024, 03:54 PM | #8366 | |
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09-19-2024, 04:02 PM | #8367 | |
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09-19-2024, 04:28 PM | #8368 |
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The biggest risk to the market now is either a serious war (WWIII or very close), or the port/dock strike that is threatened. The strike could once again wreck supply chains and drive inflation. Should be transitory but might cause the FED to hold or even tighten, especially if the strike is prolonged.
Market seems to be unconcerned with the election; I might detect a slight preference for Trump (probably less risky for corp taxes). If the Congress and Prez all go D, there might be some sell-off post-election. But I don’t think that will be much more than a re-pricing. Divided government is usually good for the markets. The normal mid-September through mid-October market softness or malaise did not occur this year. That could mean the typical Q4 rally (and post cut rally) won’t be as strong. But overall I would anticipate a good market for the balance of the year, absent either of the risks I mentioned at the outset. |
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09-19-2024, 04:35 PM | #8369 | |
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The market is reactive, and only predictive to the extent of other available predictive information. Historical patterns are not much of a guide, as they tend to dissipate (as we’ve seen already with the lack of a September-October slump this year). In that sense, we are never overdue for a correction or a rally; either will happen when there is substantive catalyst in the news and economic data. |
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09-19-2024, 05:15 PM | #8370 | |
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Still, no matter, as I view +10% corrections as opportunities and happen to have more cash than usual ready to deploy. My guess is as good as anyone else's. And my guesses are pretty much useless. Caution is always advised. But long term investors needn't worry, is my usual position.
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09-19-2024, 05:53 PM | #8371 |
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Since I’ve been investing and following the financial markets (not a pro), people have been predicting crashes/calamities/catastrophies, regardless of whether the market was strong or weak.
If I sold out or refrained from contributing every time someone whined about how bad things were getting, i wouldn’t have nearly enough to retire. As it is, my retirement age is an option which I can exercise as I wish - mainly because I ignored all the nonsense and kept investing regardless of whether the market was up or down. |
09-19-2024, 06:24 PM | #8372 |
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You accused me of making things up previously. The quote is the quote. The revisions are more pronounced vs. in the past.
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09-19-2024, 09:29 PM | #8373 |
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In the 80s I worked for a top West Coast money manager whose clear advice was: unless you've got more than $2 million ($5.9 million today), stick with low-cost index funds if you wish to maximize your returns.
That advice has worked out well for me ever since. I pay little attention to the markets' ups and downs even though they can be dramatic in the moment or for a couple of years. This is quite different than buying individual stocks, of course. Still, I retired at 45, am 76 now, and the modest portfolio I started out with continues to do quite well despite all the ups and downs of the past four decades. As far as individual stocks go, I'm just too damm lazy to go there.
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09-20-2024, 07:44 AM | #8374 | |
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Thanks. |
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09-20-2024, 10:22 AM | #8375 | |
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The spin is absolutely next level.
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09-20-2024, 10:30 AM | #8376 |
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Nice 13.5% pop in my CEG holding today. Now up 80% YTD.
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09-20-2024, 10:32 AM | #8377 | |
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The irony is that some will both disbelieve and simultaneously want to use this as a political wedge. Can't have it both ways.
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09-20-2024, 10:36 AM | #8378 |
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Not speaking for him, but virtually all index funds are low cost, as they are passively managed. In particular, Vanguard, Fidelity and T Rowe Price are low cost and well-regarded. I personally use PRUIX, among others. The net ER is .05%
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09-20-2024, 10:38 AM | #8379 | |
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the low wage jobs (service industry) are doing great however that's not really helping most of the middle class... and the upper end jobs have nothing to do w immigration... however the spin on this is everywhere... i agree w powell, that the unemployment numbers are fake and way too far revised but let's tell the truth not some nonsense like this
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09-20-2024, 11:07 AM | #8380 |
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The reality is that a lot of tech companies over hired coming off CoVid. Now they are doing some force adjustments. This makes people skittish. "Not switching jobs", implies that people have jobs. Nor does it take into account that we are coming off of a record industry hiring spree in the recent past. I have lived through a few white collar "job recessions", including being smack dab in the middle of the Dotcom bust. I have first hand experience with such.
Calling into question published job numbers, without providing relevant conflicting data is simply not credible. BLS data is freely available. https://www.bls.gov/ces/ Powell simply did not say that the numbers were faked. I work in tech, my son works in tech, many of my friends work in tech. Not seeing what you are seeing. The spin is definitely "next level", and smells political. But, you are free to post numbers, not anecdotes or observations. I am data-driven.
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09-20-2024, 12:19 PM | #8381 | |
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every single white collar and sales grouping is up over last year 2.1M people unemployed in one singular grouping or 400k more than LY https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t13.htm
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09-20-2024, 12:54 PM | #8382 | |
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"Numbers"
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