[Mani59]

Hello all,

A reminder that please do not post any political posts as these will be deleted and may lead to the entire thread being deleted.

We have, for several years, prohibited the posting of any religious and political posts which you can read about here.

Thanks, Mani

[Watching The World Burn]

Originally Posted by Mani59

Hello all,

A reminder that please do not post any political posts as these will be deleted and may lead to the entire thread being deleted.

We have, for several years, prohibited the posting of any religious and political posts which you can read about here.

Thanks, Mani

Mani - just a point of clarification - can we talk about the tariffs from an economic standpoint or is that considered political since it was enacted by a government?

In my mind its economical - I'm interested to see what the outcome is over the next few months both to the stock market but also to consumers as a whole. But if considered political by the mods then I won't say anything in any subsequent posts.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I didn't mention politics at all and my post was deleted.

You did (slightly) and it triggered someone to respond.

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Why did people like the admin's post? You all want censorship here? Sad stuff

Because you guys were about to derail the thread and better to lose a few posts than the whole thread.

[MaxVO2]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

You did (slightly) and it triggered someone to respond.



Because you guys were about to derail the thread and better to lose a few posts than the whole thread.

****Yea, it's a great thread IMO and it would be a shame to lose it. Helpful tips, etc..

[Pauly Wauly]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I didn't mention politics at all and my post was deleted.

If you don't understand what you said in your post than you really need help. You were throwing more wood in the fire on a really sensitive issue that can cause millions of people to lose their jobs.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

You did (slightly) and it triggered someone to respond.



Because you guys were about to derail the thread and better to lose a few posts than the whole thread.

Okay -you're right. I get it now. I will refrain from that talk...I get what you are saying.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Problem is the reasoning behind the tariffs is sound, though most do not read or learn about it, just the SHOCKING headlines. But couldn't things be attempted to be worked out with these countries before hand, instead of shooting first....

It's all theater and yeah, it would be more effective for everyone if the governments would talk, even forcibly if need be, before jumping in all and shooting first as you put it.

It is just so strange to me. We are a capitalistic country and businesses seek to make the most money possible. The US as a whole (i.e., government, business, workers, and consumers) decided decades ago that it would become a service/consumer-based society. A significant amount of manufacturing moved out of the US and workers and society adapted. Businesses have thrived, consumers have thrived, households have thrived, etc. And now, here we are, trying to punish other countries through tariffs? What am I missing here given our country's decisions of the past to make our economy and work force the way it is? We're punishing other countries for our own decisions. LOL

People certainly are NOT worse off now than they were back in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, financially speaking. Are they happier? Very debatable, but that's another topic all together.

It is a GLOBAL economy now. You push manufacturing to less fortunate countries. Those countries get the opportunity to grow, expand, improve, you name it. Everyone generally wins with lower prices, more competition, more products, etc. Everyone adapts. We're not going back to the 1950s US way of life. Good luck finding enough manufacturing workers.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Okay -you're right. I get it now. I will refrain from that talk...I get what you are saying.

All good. We all move forward.

[Mech Spec]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Yesterday was a peek at how the markets will react to tariffs. The reversal told the same story. Which leads me to strategize. My portfolio is up 4% YTD. I could exit to MMF right now and get 5%, basically risk free. That would put me at ~8.5% gain at year's end. More if I exit a little higher and use ultra short term bonds to good effect. I ask myself, do I want to take the sure thing, or roll the dice after two straight years of +25% gains.

It looks like I have about a month to figure it out.

thinking about the same thing just now. gonna wait for nvda earnings on the 26th

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Yesterday was a peek at how the markets will react to tariffs. The reversal told the same story. Which leads me to strategize. My portfolio is up 4% YTD. I could exit to MMF right now and get 5%, basically risk free. That would put me at ~8.5% gain at year's end. More if I exit a little higher and use ultra short term bonds to good effect. I ask myself, do I want to take the sure thing, or roll the dice after two straight years of +25% gains.

It looks like I have about a month to figure it out.

Most savvy countries and investors saw through the Mexico and Canada tariff bluff. The bluff was so clear with the Tuesday tariff deadline rather than making it a Monday deadline. The China tariffs are minor thus the market is generally unfazed. We've been playing this tariff game with China for decades. I do agree with being pushy with China though, especially with them going into other countries and doing what they do. Until that government implodes from civil unrest (I give it another 5 or so years), the Chinese government will probably be our biggest headache. Russia is just an annoying drunk uncle. That country is doomed. Always has been.

From a common investor standpoint, I'd just stay and not do any moving. Just weather the temporary chaos.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

That is the other side of the coin. I left a lot out of my post, for brevity. There could be a quick "deal" that averts a real showdown. And the markets will rejoice and settle down into fundamentals again.

Part of my thinking has to do with the fact that I don't need to take any risk anymore, as I am ridiculously far ahead of my retirement needs. I should have de-risked years ago, according to general thought.

Doing the "advisable thing" and also having the dry powder to capitalize on a significant correction would be win/win. I did this in 2020 by raising cash early in the year and deploying it at the market bottom in March/April. And I did a similar thing in 2022 by raising cash (Q1) which I deployed into commodities for a quick 40% gain in 6 months. In both cases the writing was on the wall.
This is less clear cut.

What I will probably end up doing is selling off some growth funds in my tax-advantaged accounts, to deploy in the event of a significant correction. This to avoid cap gains and still get 5% while I wait. A bit of a hedge. I am on the cusp or retirement, anyone early or mid-career should just ride things out. My situation being a bit more unique.

This post and you're last two posts are excellent. Keep it up. You're definitely more knowledgeable and educated on this. The China/US treasury matter is something I forgot about. Trump should tread VERY carefully with Xi.

I'm 50, and like you, I'm aiming to retire early in about 2 or years. My portfolio has performed exceptionally well over the last 8 or so years and I plan to stay put for now. I'm just hoping that any correction happens sooner rather than later. I've been down this path so many times since 1998 when I started investing. Patience is key. It just really annoys me when those in power threaten other governments just screw with them, cause chaos, and/or make do on ill-advised and silly promises to save face.

[floridaorange]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

It's all theater and yeah, it would be more effective for everyone if the governments would talk, even forcibly if need be, before jumping in all and shooting first as you put it.

It is just so strange to me. We are a capitalistic country and businesses seek to make the most money possible. The US as a whole (i.e., government, business, workers, and consumers) decided decades ago that it would become a service/consumer-based society. A significant amount of manufacturing moved out of the US and workers and society adapted. Businesses have thrived, consumers have thrived, households have thrived, etc. And now, here we are, trying to punish other countries through tariffs? What am I missing here given our country's decisions of the past to make our economy and work force the way it is? We're punishing other countries for our own decisions. LOL

People certainly are NOT worse off now than they were back in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, financially speaking. Are they happier? Very debatable, but that's another topic all together.

It is a GLOBAL economy now. You push manufacturing to less fortunate countries. Those countries get the opportunity to grow, expand, improve, you name it. Everyone generally wins with lower prices, more competition, more products, etc. Everyone adapts. We're not going back to the 1950s US way of life. Good luck finding enough manufacturing workers.

True except for all the towns in the US that are still devastated and struggling from
the gaping hole left by the lack of manufacturing jobs.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

And still more:

"INTERVIEW/Q&A. Ray DALIO (75), Retired Cofounder, Bridgewater. There may soon be a global financial “heart attack”. Strong dollar may create a crisis for highly indebted countries with weak currencies. Populist governments aren’t taking corrective actions but instead are loading up on more debt. He mentions a 9-stage debt cycle. All asset classes may be hit initially – stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. The US bond market is critical for the health of all other assets (in his heart analogy, the credit flow is like the “blood flow”). Selling of existing debt when a government is also trying to issue more debt can lead to a massive crisis (“heart failure”). Debt and debt services are like the “plaque” that builds up slowly. It’s hard to say when the crisis will happen. But watch debt servicing that is contributing to the US deficit of 6% of GDP now, 7.5% if TCJA is simply extended.

The deficit of 3% would be more normal but that will require hard choices for spending cuts and higher tax revenues. It was actually done during 1992-98 with tight fiscal policy but loose monetary policy (now both are loose). We also have examples of credit shocks of 1971 and 1994 when bond yields rose, and currencies weakened. Global political instability is causing higher defense spending and local onshoring, both globally inflationary. Foreign investors also evaluate the impact of sanctions. China is now facing the debt issues that Japan faced in 1990 or the US in 2008. The cure would be aggressive monetary and fiscal easing and debt restructuring (most Chinese debt is domestic). His advice for the US investors is to control risks, diversify and use tactical allocations. He is negative on the US sovereign debt, corporate debt and AI highflyers; he suggests including alternatives (including some gold and cryptos), selected EMs (India, Indonesia, ASEAN and GCC countries). Forthcoming book, “How Countries Go Broke”, 09/2025."

A lot to unpack here. What jumps out to me is that an extension of the TCJA is going to increase our debt servicing from 6% to 7.5% of GDP. Definitely the wrong direction - a 25% increase. Spending cuts and tax increases being the only realistic solutions. Those will hurt consumers which will hurt corporations and that hurts GDP. Probably the reason we keep pushing it down the road. And it isn't going to happen until we hit a wall.

I think a reasonable solution would have been to do the following (albeit no one would agree on it)-

1) let the TCJA expire
2) remove SS tax cap- we can't raise retirement age anymore
3) cut spending in the absolute largest categories - namely defense which is actually easy to make cuts in financially but very difficult politically


this would have at least gotten us moving in the right direction... but no, the answer is to spend spend and make cuts in tiny categories that in the grand scheme of things dont do anything...

[hubbahubba]

Looks like AMD is on sale today.

[hubbahubba]

DrVenture Thanks, good stuff. I picked up a couple 2/28 $110 calls this morning and I’m up slightly. Long term I don’t think you lose buying the stock at this price.

[Mech Spec]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

You are not wrong. It is a complex problem. How does anyone guarantee that these locales are where any efforts to reinvigorate manufacturing actually take effect? Seeing once thriving communities fall into despair is discouraging and sad.

They need to have the workforce, the infrastructure, the skills. Is it a "built it and they will come" scenario? Will locals get pushed out by new people moving to the area, and by gentrification? Maybe we need to taylor incentives to certain needy locales that fit the requirements. Is the hand of government likely to produce flawed results?

One article that I found on what it might take:

https://www.upjohn.org/research-high...smart-policies

The result of one recent effort that started out quite hopeful:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/money...e/70037738007/

Generally, manufacturing will open locations where there are workers first and foremost.

The problem is that most of the places that manufactured in the US before were doing it quite some time ago. Thus the work force has either left or aged out. There's no saving those dead towns except by helping them how we can until they fade.

Plenty of opportunity for the US to do manufacturing, but its surely not going to be primarily raw materials or simple goods. Investment will make it happen fastest.

[floridaorange]

Or working for Dollar General. Drive through Coal & Timber areas like the Appalachia…. So many parts of our country offer zero purpose for this younger generation.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I think a reasonable solution would have been to do the following (albeit no one would agree on it)-

1) let the TCJA expire
2) remove SS tax cap- we can't raise retirement age anymore
3) cut spending in the absolute largest categories - namely defense which is actually easy to make cuts in financially but very difficult politically

this would have at least gotten us moving in the right direction... but no, the answer is to spend spend and make cuts in tiny categories that in the grand scheme of things dont do anything...

Agree with all of this but you're right, very difficult politically.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by floridaorange

True except for all the towns in the US that are still devastated and struggling from
the gaping hole left by the lack of manufacturing jobs.

I work in mergers and acquisitions and almost all of my work is associated with companies that make something. Over the past nearly 30 years I've traveled all over this country to small rural towns and big/mid-major cities auditing manufacturing facilities and interviewing the facility managers. The common theme for them is they struggle to find and maintain line workers. In rural areas, many prefer to make do with less, work odd jobs under the tax radar, live within the poverty level and collect a checks or claim some sort of disability. In big/mid-major cities, potential manufacturing workers tend to gravitate towards the service industry or a trade vs working the line. Unions are a big turn off for many potential manufacturing workers too, so I've been told.

I spent years working at the Ford Kansas City Plant and it took an act of God for someone to take 30 seconds out of their day to move something for me because "it wasn't part of their job duty". For example, all I needed was the guy (who was in the forklift BTW) to move a rack of doors 5 feet to left so that I could access something in the floor and that rack was 10 feet to his left. These racks weren't in some sort of queue either. No union worker seemed happy working there and those guys were making bank. Most just gambled it, smoked it up, drank it away, etc. Almost like a sailor lifestyle. Most depressing place I've ever worked at.

I have a very hard time seeing manufacturing becoming a big part of the US again. Most people just don't want to do it and I don't blame them.

[ASAP]

as a curious point thats relevant... we have a national saline shortage... take a wild guess why

[chassis]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I have a very hard time seeing manufacturing becoming a big part of the US again. Most people just don't want to do it and I don't blame them.

A driving force behind the present increased emphasis on automation.

[ASAP]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/here...one-chart.html

jobs report is disastrous if you read thru the details... most growth coming from 2 sectors... one driven by govt which is currently being butchered... white collar workers looking for jobs over a year