[chassis]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

My guess is that it ends up costing even more. First you need to design the hardware and the software. Then you need to manufacture it, install it, maintain it, upgrade it and fix it. All by very highly paid specialists. Then, because it becomes obsolete, you start all over again. Meanwhile you pay the electric bill. And when a machine goes down, you wait days for the repair guy to show up and tell you, the only available replacement part needs to be obtained from a mud hut in Java.

That's not it.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

I expect the Labor Participation Rate to get worse, adding government white collar jobs to those numbers. Rejuvenation of the manufacturing sector may not help white collar workers either. Certainly not in the next few years. I don't see these white collar workers moving into healthcare or construction either.

My understanding is that the white collar workers that cannot find jobs are in tech, finance and professional services. High interest rates are cited as one reason for these layoffs. And over-hiring during CoVid. I'd also assume some obsolescence in skills.

What is the solution?

Labor participation rate is people of working age who choose to work and are looking for work if unemployed, as a percent of the total people of working age who could work. Layoffs won’t affect participation; early retirements can affect it as can just giving up.

Have you seen how fast AI is moving? ChatGPT, Grok (free on X), and others are in an exponential expansion right now. If plastics was the thing in The Graduate, it is AI applications now. Would not be hard to set up a consultancy in corporate finance, strategy, budgeting, or any number of other fields using AI tools. Create your own models/datasets/training. All you’d need is salespeople and presenters. That is just one arena for white collar workers to migrate to. There are others; but the old job of searching a database or writing a draft white paper on an accounting topic are soon to be gone (automated).

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by chassis

That's not it.

It costs a lot less, orders of magnitude are possible. Fast Food can be heavily automated (ordering, cooking, much of cleaning); doesn’t need seating anymore, so the whole model is changing. And that is just one “manufacturing” area.

If it was expensive, auto makers wouldn’t have so many robots already.

[stbm5]

my pick of the year has been RTX. i bet it goes to 150-155 in next 12 mos. big backlog and its not like people will be buying fewer missiles.

[Watching The World Burn]

Originally Posted by stbm5

my pick of the year has been RTX. i bet it goes to 150-155 in next 12 mos. big backlog and its not like people will be buying fewer missiles.

Right, but isn't old Elon about to slice and dice the defense budget? If so, not sure overpriced missiles will be high on the reorder list? They may have backlog, no idea, but if they do...might those contracts just simply be cancelled if they are with the US Gov?

I think there's going to be a period of uncertainty hitting the markets here with DOGE, but we'll see what happens, and if DOGE really does anything substantial. If they don't, then they won't have an impact on markets...but if they are successful in cutting a certain area, then I think the markets will be fearful of the next area and that will lead to the uncertainty.

[ASAP]

cpi report roaring back lmao...

fed cut rates way too quick as i've said here before...

watch the ensuing fight that happens between the admin and fed on where rates go moving forward

[Watching The World Burn]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

We have gone from 2.4% YOY, just 4 months ago, to 3% YOY. I doubt that tariffs have even begun to influence entrenched inflation. Not yet reflected in these numbers. I also doubt any more FED funds rate cuts in 2025 and I could see rate hikes, even. Then in 2026, when Powell is booted from office, we may be looking at rate cuts in the face of inflation, leading to even more inflation. The last statement that I read was that we "need rate cuts to go hand-in-hand with tariffs".

No idea how any of this will impact the economy. Or the markets. But, as I stated before, I am de-risking. I took the opportunity to sell last Thursday and again this Monday. A lot. I will sell more in the coming weeks. If the market corrects, I'll scoop up bargains. If not, I'll sleep better taking less risk.

"Analyst Cody Acree estimated that the average sticker price would rise about $5,790, based on the impact of the currently paused 25% levies on cars and components from Mexico and Canada. That would raise the cost of an average new car above $54,500, or nearly 12% higher than in 2024". Now, we are hearing, that autos and pharmaceuticals may be exempt. But, that (other) reciprocal tariffs are coming this week.

What is not clear in all of this are boycotts. And shifts of trade strategies. Other countries grass roots (and corporate) reactions to our exports. Acquiring customers can be difficult. Losing them easy. Getting them back, after hard feelings? Who knows. There are plenty of companies that I will not ever do business with. All they had to do was annoy me once.

“From my vantage point, the bombastic rhetoric, the damage has already been done,” Griffin (Citadel CEO) said Tuesday at the UBS Financial Services Conference in Key Biscayne, Florida. “It’s a huge mistake to resort to this form of rhetoric when you’re trying to drive a bargain because ... it tears into the minds of CEOs, policymakers that we can’t depend upon America, as our trading partner.”

I think the potential issue is that if the other countries get their backs up enough, then they take the position: "Well, fine, if the States wants to nationalistic and focus solely on themselves, let them to their thing and we'll just trade with each other (rest of the world) and exclude them just as they want." That would have a very significant impact on the markets and also a very troubling one I think. Especially what happens to the US Dollar - would it potentially be replaced as the global currency - I think it would in that scenario because no other country would want to run the risk you guys just print into oblivion and devalue it. But then by what does it get replaced?

Realistically though, I don't see this happening - there is resentment sure, but the ties developed are deeper than what I suspect will be a short period of time, though even if it lasts the full term, I still don't see ties fully breaking. I think it will be a period of resentment that will soon be forgotten and everything goes back to normal to some degree.

Frankly, as a Canadian I'm kind of happy about the threat of tariffs. I think its a good wake up call to start developing more markets, getting stuff out to the rest of the world and making that kind of investment in our country that has been sorely lacking for so long. That's going to boost the economy and in some small part, maybe even have some larger market impacts.

[Jodedor]

My $0.02 and my opinion only as it will most likely not pertain to you amd you must seek the help of a professional as the following is only about me.

I learned not to listen to friends and co-workers.

I got into an S&P500 index fund and started buying stocks with decent dividend yield.

I cant do day trading.

I have a co worker taking an online class on charting...are you serious??? during wotk hours!!!

Here is a fundamental I heard from a Jim Rohn talk. And, he will state that he did not create it as there are no new fundamentals.

One with which I have trouble is to spend 70% of what I earn.

The other 30%...10 goes to savings...10 goes to charity...and 10 goes to investment(your own business...or stocks, etc.)

I have been fortunate that the company stock has done decently.

Looking at whatever retirement date, my goal is to have enough high dividend stock to get ~ $100,000 a year in dividends by age 62.

This, SS, and 401K should do it.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Jodedor

My $0.02 and my opinion only as it will most likely not pertain to you amd you must seek the help of a professional as the following is only about me.

I learned not to listen to friends and co-workers.

I got into an S&P500 index fund and started buying stocks with decent dividend yield.

I cant do day trading.

I have a co worker taking an online class on charting...are you serious??? during wotk hours!!!

Here is a fundamental I heard from a Jim Rohn talk. And, he will state that he did not create it as there are no new fundamentals.

One with which I have trouble is to spend 70% of what I earn.

The other 30%...10 goes to savings...10 goes to charity...and 10 goes to investment(your own business...or stocks, etc.)

I have been fortunate that the company stock has done decently.

Looking at whatever retirement date, my goal is to have enough high dividend stock to get ~ $100,000 a year in dividends by age 62.

This, SS, and 401K should do it.

Adjust your $100k for inflation between now and retirement; compound at least 3% annually (4-5% would be safer). Don’t count on SS, at least at full amount. Consider that a potential bonus. Don’t forget taxes (401(k) withdrawals, SS, dividends) at retirement. That said, I think you’re on the right track.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/14/reta...expected-.html

"Consumers sharply curtailed their spending in January, indicating a potential weakening in economic growth ahead, according to a Commerce Department report Friday.

Retail sales slipped 0.9% for the month from an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. The sales totals are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation for a month in which prices rose 0.5%.

Excluding autos, prices fell 0.4%, also well off the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase. A “control” measure that strips out several nonessential categories and figures directly into calculations for gross domestic product fell 0.8% after an upwardly revised increase of 0.8%.

With consumer spending making up about two-thirds of all economic activity in the U.S., the sales numbers indicate a potential weakening in growth for the first quarter."

Yep, it's gonna get a lot worse before it gets better. I think many of us know why but aren't allowed to say it on this forum. F around and find out. Simple as that.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Markets inching forward and mostly trading sideways. Interesting that S&P and Dow are ahead of Nasdaq. Walmart gave tepid guidance. “If Walmart is giving bad guidance, you should be paying attention to it,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director at R.J. O’Brien and Associates. “Perhaps this is suggesting that the general consumer is tapped out.” Target and Costco dropped 12% on the WMT news.

GDP is about 2/3 driven by consumer. And a quarter by government spending, which is also under assault. What economic hijinx will ensue when GDP numbers begin to falter and inflation moves up, as expected? Lower rates may only add fuel to the fire. How about more QE? I don't think that the FED will be in a position to save the day. What will corporate earnings look like, in the face of tariffs? What good news, if any, can we expect?

Serious question. I am at my lowest equity allocation ever. Thinking about going lower. Hard to see much upside given all the headwinds and two consecutive years of +25% S&P gains.

S&P YTD is 3.6%
DJIA YTD is 3.4%
NASD YTD is 3.03%

How many years away from retirement are you?

[floridaorange]

Same article -

The drop was dramatic, but several mitigating factors show there’s no cause for alarm. Some of it can be chalked up to bad weather, and some to auto sales tanking in January after an unusual surge in December due to fat dealer incentives,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “Especially considering December was revised up strongly, the rolling average of consumer spending remains solid,” Frick added.


The market isn’t going to improve drastically until the war in the Ukraine ends, imo. So hang tight folks. I expect a very strong market in 6-12 months you watch

[Mech Spec]

Just gtfo with the "trump will make the markets better" bull crap. We all know that's what you are saying.

Its not grounded in reality and it's not relevant to the thread.

[Mech Spec]

The dollar inflated 16% 2021 to today. S&P went up 60%

Your politics would dictate that the president during that time had nothing to do with that. Regardless of whether that is true, the same standard must be applied to today. "President has nothing to do with it"

Our best case scenario is that the markets do the same thing they did for the past 5 years. That is highly unlikely.

[floridaorange]

I’ll let chat gpt outline my post in more detail:

The war in Ukraine has had significant global economic repercussions, including effects on the U.S. stock market. Below are some key ways the war negatively impacts the market, followed by how its potential end could create a more bullish sentiment.

Negative Effects of the War on the U.S. Stock Market:

1. Energy Price Volatility:
• Russia is a major oil and gas exporter. Sanctions and supply disruptions have led to higher energy prices, increasing costs for businesses and consumers, fueling inflation, and reducing corporate profits.
2. Inflationary Pressures:
• The war has disrupted global supply chains, especially for commodities like oil, wheat, and fertilizer. Higher costs for raw materials contribute to inflation, leading to tighter monetary policy (higher interest rates).
3. Higher Interest Rates & Fed Policy:
• To combat war-induced inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, making borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, slowing economic growth.
4. Market Uncertainty & Risk Aversion:
• Wars create geopolitical instability, making investors more risk-averse. This often leads to sell-offs in equities, especially in sectors sensitive to uncertainty, such as tech and growth stocks.
5. Defense Spending Overhang:
• While defense stocks have surged, increased government spending on military aid diverts resources from domestic economic growth initiatives, potentially increasing national debt concerns.
6. Supply Chain Disruptions:
• Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, corn, and essential minerals (e.g., neon gas for semiconductor manufacturing). Disruptions impact industries like food production and tech, affecting corporate earnings.
7. Stock Market Sector Rotation:
• Investors tend to shift toward defensive sectors (energy, commodities, and defense) during wartime, leading to declines in growth-focused areas like technology and discretionary spending.
8. European Economic Weakness Affecting U.S. Markets:
• The war has weakened European economies due to energy dependence on Russia. This indirectly impacts U.S. multinational companies with exposure to European markets.

How the War Ending Could Create a Bullish Sentiment:

1. Lower Energy Prices & Inflation Relief:
• A stable Ukraine-Russia situation could lead to normalized oil and gas markets, easing inflationary pressures, and allowing the Fed to pause or cut interest rates.
2. Easing of Supply Chain Issues:
• A post-war recovery in Ukraine could restore agricultural and industrial exports, benefiting food prices and semiconductor production.
3. Increased Business & Investor Confidence:
• Markets tend to favor stability. The resolution of the war would reduce geopolitical risk, boosting investor confidence and equity valuations.
4. Stronger Global Trade & Economic Growth:
• Reduced sanctions and restored trade between Europe, Russia, and Ukraine could benefit global markets, improving demand for U.S. goods and services.
5. Rotation Back into Growth Stocks:
• If inflation declines and interest rates stabilize, investors may shift back into growth-oriented sectors (tech, consumer discretionary), fueling a broader market rally.
6. Potential for Reconstruction & Economic Stimulus:
• Post-war rebuilding efforts in Ukraine could spur global demand for construction materials, industrial equipment, and technology, benefiting certain market sectors.
7. Stronger European Economies Benefiting U.S. Corporations:
• If European economies recover from the war’s effects, U.S. companies with international exposure could see revenue growth from improved demand.


But we are all entitled to our opinions.

[floridaorange]

Originally Posted by IanH

Just gtfo with the "trump will make the markets better" bull crap. We all know that's what you are saying.

Its not grounded in reality and it's not relevant to the thread.

You seem unsettled, everything ok?

[floridaorange]

Not waisting my time is what I was doing.

[Donut Lord]

Anyone here run any finance related YT channels?

[Tyga11]

Wednesday is make it or break it. I'm nervous

[Mech Spec]

Earnings will still be strong and will beat, for this quarter. But I don't expect it to continue beyond.

That is not to say that the price will jump appreciably it may be priced in.

[Watching The World Burn]

What are people's thoughts on Tesla?

I daresay most of us would agree its overvalued, even the most diehard fans, but maybe I'm wrong. Been a decent slump in stock price this past month, but do you think its going to bounce back?

I just don't know if I see it...maybe with tariffs it gets a little bump because I'm sure there will be some sort of exceptions there given Elon's close proximity to Trump, but I don't know.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Watching The World Burn

What are people's thoughts on Tesla?

I daresay most of us would agree its overvalued, even the most diehard fans, but maybe I'm wrong. Been a decent slump in stock price this past month, but do you think its going to bounce back?

I just don't know if I see it...maybe with tariffs it gets a little bump because I'm sure there will be some sort of exceptions there given Elon's close proximity to Trump, but I don't know.

Tesla is interesting because it is much more about the future (tech it has developed and is still working on) than the present car sales/profits. That’s why its valuation is staying high “for a car company”.

My concern with it always has been Musk. He is quite the entrepreneur and that means the future of TSLA is highly dependent on him remaining CEO (same problem Apple had transitioning from Jobs to Cook, but has TSLA planned anything?), and also him remaining a “darling”. His political involvement hurts that because it alienates some (surprisingly in ways that Zack’s involvement has not hurt him). Flamboyant people have a way of crashing and burning, and that is a huge risk IMO for this stock. This risk ebbs as TSLA reveals more of its future and it becomes less dependent on Musk as a driver or a personality.

There are plenty of write-ups on TSLA, for and against, and videos on YT or wherever. I’m sure it is in some of my funds, but I’ve never owned it directly because the Musk risks are too great for my appetite.