[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by AlpineWhite_SJ

The July numbers in Santa Clara County for single family indicate otherwise:

Median price is up 6.6% YoY and average price is up 10.6%
Number of sales are up 11.8%. YoY but active listings are off 42.1%
Days on market are only up 2.3% at 27 days (average since 2003 is 89 days)
Days of inventory are down 48.2%
Sale price to listing is at 101.7%

Condos are down though and other counties could be different.

Median price doesn’t mean average. With
Low inventory people are bidding up. A look on Redfin and Zillow shows that list prices have dropped vs going up few months ago. After the SIP people were able to visit homes and buy again which helped drive up prices.

[AlpineWhite_SJ]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Median price doesn’t mean average. With
Low inventory people are bidding up. A look on Redfin and Zillow shows that list prices have dropped vs going up few months ago. After the SIP people were able to visit homes and buy again which helped drive up prices.

That’s why average price is included and also up. Homes are still selling for more than asking (list vs sale price). Anecdotal on properties you’re watching is not a trend that the overall sales data supports. Prices softened in 2018 and are now slightly up due to lack of inventory.

[F32Fleet]

Originally Posted by AlpineWhite_SJ

That's why average price is included and also up. Homes are still selling for more than asking (list vs sale price). Anecdotal on properties you're watching is not a trend that the overall sales data supports. Prices softened in 2018 and are now slightly up due to lack of inventory.

Anecdotally. It took two years which isn't uncommon but my parents finally sold their home via cash deal for $1.1M.

[qba335i]

I live in the city/Chicago loop. I started look at houses in March hoping to find a nice deal (desperate seller/builder). So far the search has not been going well - very limited supply of new houses and didn't really see any price depreciation.

I think the first wave was people with money really trying to leave the city asap. Now I start to see some minor price drops and houses that are coming back on the market after being in pending status. I guess
with tighter lending standards the 1M+ space is feeling some price pressure. People who were pre-approved for jumbo loans are no longer able to get them...
On the other hand, the 400-500k market is doing extremely well - with rates so low people can buy a house vs paying rent. My uncle is a builder in this price range and he already sold 3 houses this year and is finishing 3 more... He said there is a lot of interest and he is raising prices as rates are dropping.

[smyles]

Originally Posted by Mardio

But that doesn't explain why the rest of the world has the covid issue, Brazil is not in a election year.

Define "issue".

Does the virus exist? Yes, sure. But what you do (and not do) about it, or in the name of it - that is often little to nothing about the virus, and everything about your political and other agenda.

[Onizukachan]

Originally Posted by IndyRed128i

I have many friends in real estate and from what I have heard and scene, the housing market is still on fire.

This is quite surprising to me considering the current unemployment situation, and everything with the virus.

How can there still be a high as ever demand when we have high unemployment and a recession?

The Covid stimulus payment was the extra edge we needed to jump this May into a house we liked instead of having to worry about expenses beyond downpayment or waiting till lease was up this month On the old place.

And we offered over asking to get ours The day it was listed because it was the right house for us in the right neighborhood after losing out on two others. It’s Mostly a sellers market here in this neighborhood and has been for a while. The only ones still on the market are poor floor plans and overpriced. Anything good goes in a day or three.
Also it’s actually easier to apply now since you can turn in documents electronically etc instead of paper paper paper for days.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Onizukachan

The Covid stimulus payment was the extra edge we needed to jump this May into a house we liked instead of having to worry about expenses beyond downpayment or waiting till lease was up this month On the old place.

And we offered over asking to get ours The day it was listed because it was the right house for us in the right neighborhood after losing out on two others. It’s Mostly a sellers market here in this neighborhood and has been for a while. The only ones still on the market are poor floor plans and overpriced. Anything good goes in a day or three.
Also it’s actually easier to apply now since you can turn in documents electronically etc instead of paper paper paper for days.

That must have been a helluva stimulus payment if it made the difference between buying and renting.

[TrevorM3]

Originally Posted by Onizukachan

The Covid stimulus payment was the extra edge we needed to jump this May into a house we liked instead of having to worry about expenses beyond downpayment or waiting till lease was up this month On the old place.

And we offered over asking to get ours The day it was listed because it was the right house for us in the right neighborhood after losing out on two others. It’s Mostly a sellers market here in this neighborhood and has been for a while. The only ones still on the market are poor floor plans and overpriced. Anything good goes in a day or three.
Also it’s actually easier to apply now since you can turn in documents electronically etc instead of paper paper paper for days.

as in, the 1200? This was what you needed to get into a house?

[Onizukachan]

As in the extra 3 grand In stimulus covered the last 3 months of rent on the old place so we could jump ship then and not wait till fall to start shopping and still have the same money in the bank.
This is my last month as a renter, plus I’ve been a home owner for 2 months now. Make sense now?

[Joekerr]

I'm still suspecting there will be a hit to home prices, but I love our home too much to consider selling it...no idea where we would live.

The house a few doors down from us just went on the market for $2.5M, but I think the house is a tear down. So I think its sort of a ridiculous price but it has 230 feet of waterfront and a 1 acre lot, so it does have that going for it. To be clear, our house is worth far less as we are on the other side of the road so we aren't waterfront, but we can still access the water so we feel like we have the best of both worlds right now. At least as long as our water access remains.

But yes, house prices are crazy. The bank just appraised my neighbour's house at $1.1M and that's a bank appraisal which are typically low...they tend to build in a decent safety margin on those as I understand. His house is likely worth $1.3M or so realistically if that's what they are appraising it at.

We have to be due for a correction I think.

[chassis]

@Joekerr Sounds like the market is warm/hot in your area. What would be a couple of reasons for softening in the housing market?

[Joekerr]

Originally Posted by chassis

@Joekerr Sounds like the market is warm/hot in your area. What would be a couple of reasons for softening in the housing market?

I think my government is doling out too much in the way of Covid payments and it is putting a bandaid on a bad situation that is ultimately just going to be infected and need surgical treatment basically. Looks ok right now, but won't be.

Eventually, the payments will have to stop, which means people start to go back to work...but...and here's the hitch....those employers couldn't get them back while CERB was running because there wasn't enough incentive, which means a certain percentage (and I fear it is going to be a significant percentage - like 20-35%) of those employers can no longer operate and decided to shut down. Which means there is no job to go back to. And then these employees start to have trouble making payments, cut back spending, which has ripple effects on everyone else and we stress test the economy. Which I think is shaky right now. What effect will that have - I don't know.

But I suspect one area where we might see a contraction is house prices.

[chassis]

Thanks @Joekerr.

Here is one for the Canadians - housing starts up 15.8% in the latest report. @Alfisti and others, what’s going on with this trend?

[Alfisti]

What's a start?

Toronto and Montreal see monumental amounts of immigration, no one wants to talk about it because racist but these people need to live somewhere. There has also been a concerted push to build up, not out, which makes sense but means detached houses are at a premium.

Best decision i ever made was buying our house less than 10 miles from Toronto centre with a 65x125 lot. It's not acres but right now it seems like it given the density in Toronto.

CERB ($2k month for those without income since March) has kept things afloat, it is due to end soon and be replaced by something far less charitable soon so the acid test will come then. I am trying to hire at minimum wage $15.40 an hr) and i cannot get anyone to do it, they just take CERB.

There have also been rules put in place re no evictions etc that will end soon and that will see another test, i am not sold this can keep going as well as some of the optimists here, i know a lot are entry level but SO MANY people out of work, it has to materialise at some point, the lack of spending will SURELY see a knock on effect.

[Joekerr]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

What's a start?

Toronto and Montreal see monumental amounts of immigration, no one wants to talk about it because racist but these people need to live somewhere. There has also been a concerted push to build up, not out, which makes sense but means detached houses are at a premium.

Best decision i ever made was buying our house less than 10 miles from Toronto centre with a 65x125 lot. It's not acres but right now it seems like it given the density in Toronto.

CERB ($2k month for those without income since March) has kept things afloat, it is due to end soon and be replaced by something far less charitable soon so the acid test will come then. I am trying to hire at minimum wage $15.40 an hr) and i cannot get anyone to do it, they just take CERB.

There have also been rules put in place re no evictions etc that will end soon and that will see another test, i am not sold this can keep going as well as some of the optimists here, i know a lot are entry level but SO MANY people out of work, it has to materialise at some point, the lack of spending will SURELY see a knock on effect.

Yeah, we see things the same way...has to be an effect. And yes, if you were hiring at minimum wage, say 40 hours a week, approx 4 weeks in a month, they'd only be making $465 per month more than CERB is paying them to do nothing...easy choice for them.

But what they aren't seeing is that when businesses then go under, there will be no spot for them when CERB ends. Not that all will, in fact, I expect greater than most will survive...but there has to be some. I'm guessing as I said between 20-35% of businesses will fail, and mostly small businesses of that. There has to be a ripple effect of those employees not earning money, those businesses not purchasing, and those owners not earning money.

Now in theory, these businesses will be replaced by others with capital if there is profit to be made, but it won't be as quick as I think it will need to be to not feel any effects.

[Onizukachan]

I sometimes forget that other parts of the US had a recession And housing bust in 2008, as it never happened here.

In my industry everyone now is wfh permanently. But I do foresee retail space becoming less a shopping experience And more a mini local warehouse for online ordering, where space is reallocated to larger storerooms and customer space (and customer facing) staffing is eliminated or drastically minimized.

Office space I foresee having losses as well as I don’t think this is going to go away in the next 3-5 years. I know my company has moved out and no longer leases our office space and returned all the fixtures, and I’m sure others will too if they haven’t already.

I think the Falacious idea of being financially secure when you work in the food /bar / customer facing non skilled service industry might finally have been popped for good though and there will be a correction from that in most of the country.
Prices are up here over just 2-3 months ago and supply is just as tight.

[Alfisti]

We were gonna set up an office in El Paso, needed the Spanish speakers. But holy crime rate batman ... jesus H.

[Onizukachan]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

We were gonna set up an office in El Paso, needed the Spanish speakers. But holy crime rate batman ... jesus H.

Interesting since they are one of the safest Large cities in the US.
Amazon is also about to open a distro center here next year apparently.

[Alfisti]

My mistake, it was Yuma, just checked the report. We ended up in Wichita which was a fiasco.

[zx10guy]

Here we go:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/real...es/ar-BB17PYMp

And this happens in my area:

https://wtop.com/business-finance/20...-10-year-high/

Irrational exuberance

[BMW F22]

Any thoughts on banks or credit unions with good rates and customer service?

[Alfisti]

How in god's name is Washington so damn cheap???