[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Govt assistance programs, SNAP, unemployment, etc are still under disaster rules or actually no rules, so the hurt for the lower end hasn't hit bottom. States are allowed to waive all rules, restrictions, and expiration of peoples benefits for up to 2yrs after the end of a govt declared disaster, so I don't think that has occurred yet.

Other than the slow trickle of 6 Trillion in federal stimulus that has been authorized but not spent, pretty much all of the benefits have reverted to pre-COVID levels. SNAP expansion ended in early 2023 (see infographic below), the increased child tax credit was not extended beyond 2022 and reverted to $1600/per child for 2023 taxes. Even California generally requires you to actually be looking for work to qualify for unemployment benefits again. Shocking, I know...

Most of the world is already in recession, or will be very soon. The Swiss national bank just lowered their benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, in large part because their economy has been shrinking for 4(!) quarters; I remember when we called that a depression, not a recession. The rest of Europe/UK is right behind them and the only real question now is will the ECB of the BoE be the first to cut? China's problems are obvious. Assuming the West doesn't allow them to export their way out of them, it'll take the better part of a generation to get fully back on track. And the Rest of World (RoW) is suffering under the weight of their (too strong) dollar-denominated debt. Growth for them will be very difficult if not impossible.

All of that federal money printing here is dragging things out, but business cycles are business cycles and we'll get there, eventually. The stagnation train is pulling into the station. Jobs in some industries are already hard to get, and people w/o jobs do not spend money unless they have to. If companies panic and start pulling the plug on all of those extra COVID hires, like the tech guys have been doing since last year, the jobs picture will deteriorate quite rapidly. That would tip us into recession - which, compared to an extended period of stagflation would actually, long run, be preferable - and then we'd get some interest rate relief from Powell.

I've been saying this for quite some time and still believe it. Several million people need to lose their jobs before this cycle can end, we get a chance to clean out the deadwood, and a new cycle of properly-grounded growth can begin. Likely that'll be bad for everyone for a while, but it's necessary for a healthy economy.

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I think people have a real hard time remembering median US household income is 77K... this is no longer a home owner but rather a life long renter at the mercy of landlords... all of their expenses going up up and up is crushing these folks... car payments are at an all time high and as was mentioned insurance and hyperinflation just continue to further the blow...

the govt continues to gaslight nonsense about things being well...

let me tell you - if you are sitting heavy on assets at low rates, make over 6 figures and have consistent cash flow, this doesn't affect you much...

so either there is a TON of these so called well doers... or there is lying all around because the statistics don't align with reality

the absolute best thing that can happen right now is a reset to pre covid... which would necessitate a 30% blow to real estate, the stock market and unemployment would go up...it would also necessitate a reset to old margins... but at least we'd back to a normal environment and rates would slowly fall into a more manageable 5 or so %... think that will happen? it wont... because the govt wont let it happen... in other words, median income earners are screwed and stagflation will continue

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Other than the slow trickle of 6 Trillion in federal stimulus that has been authorized but not spent, pretty much all of the benefits have reverted to pre-COVID levels. SNAP expansion ended in early 2023 (see infographic below), the increased child tax credit was not extended beyond 2022 and reverted to $1600/per child for 2023 taxes. Even California generally requires you to actually be looking for work to qualify for unemployment benefits again. Shocking, I know...

Most of the world is already in recession, or will be very soon. The Swiss national bank just lowered their benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, in large part because their economy has been shrinking for 4(!) quarters; I remember when we called that a depression, not a recession. The rest of Europe/UK is right behind them and the only real question now is will the ECB of the BoE be the first to cut? China's problems are obvious. Assuming the West doesn't allow them to export their way out of them, it'll take the better part of a generation to get fully back on track. And the Rest of World (RoW) is suffering under the weight of their (too strong) dollar-denominated debt. Growth for them will be very difficult if not impossible.

All of that federal money printing here is dragging things out, but business cycles are business cycles and we'll get there, eventually. The stagnation train is pulling into the station. Jobs in some industries are already hard to get, and people w/o jobs do not spend money unless they have to. If companies panic and start pulling the plug on all of those extra COVID hires, like the tech guys have been doing since last year, the jobs picture will deteriorate quite rapidly. That would tip us into recession - which, compared to an extended period of stagflation would actually, long run, be preferable - and then we'd get some interest rate relief from Powell.

I've been saying this for quite some time and still believe it. Several million people need to lose their jobs before this cycle can end, we get a chance to clean out the deadwood, and a new cycle of properly-grounded growth can begin. Likely that'll be bad for everyone for a while, but it's necessary for a healthy economy.

your last statement is sad but unfortunately very very true... there is still too much $ floating around and senseless spending ... a reset would only be possible with high unemployment... right now like you said its only tech... but if it hit all industries, the picture would change quick

[bagekko]

Even though the govt ended the covid disaster classification in 2023, states have the ability to modify/enforce the rules for 2yrs after it ended. Its at their discretion to allow exemptions and extensions to people as they please.

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Other than the slow trickle of 6 Trillion in federal stimulus that has been authorized but not spent, pretty much all of the benefits have reverted to pre-COVID levels. SNAP expansion ended in early 2023 (see infographic below), the increased child tax credit was not extended beyond 2022 and reverted to $1600/per child for 2023 taxes. Even California generally requires you to actually be looking for work to qualify for unemployment benefits again. Shocking, I know...

[ASAP]

is Chassis still around to argue? wholesale inflation still up over expectations

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...ion-april-2024

[chassis]

PPI up 0.1% yoy after 13 months deflating (prices going down). For the record keepers, that is a 1.001x increase in producer prices on a YOY basis. In other words zero inflation.

Manufacturing data muy bueno. Automotive manufacturing is at ATH. Reshoring is real. France is catching on to reshoring. Mexico is a hot market for new factory investment. It’s a de-globalization megatrend.

All good in the neighborhood.

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by ASAP

is Chassis still around to argue? wholesale inflation still up over expectations

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...ion-april-2024

Why do you even bother? He’s obviously trolling. Best thing to do is ignore.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by chassis

PPI up 0.1% yoy after 13 months deflating (prices going down). For the record keepers, that is a 1.001x increase in producer prices on a YOY basis. In other words zero inflation.

Manufacturing data muy bueno. Automotive manufacturing is at ATH. Reshoring is real. France is catching on to reshoring. Mexico is a hot market for new factory investment. It’s a de-globalization megatrend.

All good in the neighborhood.

I generally refrain from engaging like this, but what in heaven's name is this guy smoking? And in what neighborhood? Seriously.

WRT PPI (Source - BLS PPI Home Page):

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in April. Prices for final demand services increased 0.6 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 0.4 percent. The index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

WRT Manufacturing (Source - Trading Economics Manufacturing PMI Page):

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 50 in April of 2024 from 51.9 in the previous month, firmly below the market expectations of 52, but revised slightly higher from the flash estimate of 49.9. The reading pointed to the first stall in factory activity this year following three firm expansions. Manufacturers scaled back their purchasing activity to react to a fresh decline in new orders, with surveyees noting a greater extent of caution among clients and reluctance to commit to new business. Still, a drawdown in backlogs of work sustained production enough to record an increase in output levels, but demand for capacity was broadly unchanged as staffing levels edged slightly lower and purchasing activity edged higher. On the price front, input costs accelerated sharply amid higher costs for oil and metals. Looking forward, factories still remained broadly optimistic over output levels for the coming year.