04-28-2024, 02:41 PM | #8273 |
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And obviously we don’t have improper care, misdiagnosis or botched medical procedures here, otherwise malpractice insurance rates would be sky h……. hmmmm
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04-29-2024, 03:46 PM | #8274 |
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Wait just a gol-darned second there. I called it last July, in this very thread:
https://g05.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh...postcount=7975 I don't get no respect! ![]() |
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04-29-2024, 04:15 PM | #8275 | |
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04-29-2024, 08:34 PM | #8276 |
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Through circumstance and careful planning, we made our way through the remarkable stagflation of the 70s in very good shape. Mostly, we made sure we didn't spend a single dollar unless it was absolutely clear it needed to be spent. Think: we shopped Walmart before it was Walmart. Imagine that in 2024 America.
And yes, we failed to buy Walmart stock when it cost virtually zero in today's dollars. This despite living just down the road from Walmart HQ and clearly recognizing the remarkable value the company was offering to shoppers. I don't know, perhaps it was that we didn't have a nickel to spare for buying stock. Looking back today, I suspect that must've been it. Nevertheless, both of us, after spending our working lives working for wages (i.e., not owning our own businesses or being self-employed), retired from gainful employment, respectively, in 1994 and 1997. The moral of this and every other story is how many of them there are out here in the real world! ![]()
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04-30-2024, 09:18 AM | #8277 | |
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But the Sun, Daily Mail, and Mirror (UK papers) run stories detailing NHS shortcomings almost every day and too often the outcome is someone who could have been treated and made healthy was not properly treated to the point of being subjected to malpractice. Malpractice insurance rates are high not because of the number of cases but because the settlements are very high. And in some cases, too many cases, the verdict by the jury is not justice but just rewarding the plaintiff with a windfall...'cause it is only insurance money after all. |
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04-30-2024, 05:31 PM | #8278 | |
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05-01-2024, 01:35 PM | #8279 | |
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05-03-2024, 07:42 AM | #8281 |
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05-03-2024, 04:51 PM | #8282 |
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05-04-2024, 11:56 AM | #8283 |
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Wed, 5/1/24
Jay Powell - “I don’t see the stag, or the ’flation” Fri, 5/3/24 The Stag - Payrolls up 175k, and only 5k in leisure & hospitality, February + March revised down - Unemployment up to 3.9% - Manufacturing PMI slips to 49.2 (< 50 is recessionary) - Much anecdotal evidence of hiring slowing dramatically, consumer behavior eroding and debt exploding, etc. The 'flation - Wage growth +3.9% y-o-y - CPI +3.5% - Core PCE +2.8% y-o-y, but 0.3% (x12 = 3.6%) m-o-m - Owner's equivalent rent up >6% - Crude oil prices hovering ~$80/bbl Frankly, Jay's sounding a bit like "Mr Transitory" again to me. Could the Fed once again be a day late and a dollar short to the table? And, what will be the effects of "higher for longer"? CRE implosion? Third-world country's going under from the stronger dollar? Annihilation of the consumer here in The States? All of the above? |
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05-04-2024, 04:31 PM | #8284 |
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Whatever happens, I'm committed to continue partying like it's 1985. And I remain eternally grateful that I'm in a position to do so.
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05-06-2024, 12:09 PM | #8285 |
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So how long is this market sustainable and what is going to be the first this to break? Profits continue to go up as companies charge more for less, fast food is no longer cheap, food in general is crazy expensive, auto dealers have overflowing lots now, housing remains thin and over-priced, etc. People bitch about current interest rates being too high but the reality is consumers and companies got way to is use to cheap rates for nearly two decades. The current rates are consistent with those back in the earlier 2000s.
I think the market collapse will start with the automotive industry. Dealers and automakers got too comfy with making tons of money following COVID. Then there's the EVs nobody wants now, the cost of vehicles in general, "high" rates, etc. I think what will kick the whole thing off will be payment delinquency. Everyone wants nice stuff and many bought that whether it was a fancier house, the vacation home, a boat, a $90K pickup truck, etc. With the cost of everything going up to much over a number of years plus people's dwindling savings accounts, the day of reckoning is coming for many, especially those that over-leveraged themselves wearing those rose-colored glasses and buying and consuming. The market fall will happen rapidly and with little warning, just as it always has.
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05-06-2024, 01:00 PM | #8286 |
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05-06-2024, 01:54 PM | #8287 |
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I don't know how people haven't run out of money, or credit limits, yet. I thought we were going to see the fallout last year. I guess many have a lot of equity now to tap into, variable interest rates be damned.
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05-06-2024, 05:04 PM | #8288 |
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05-07-2024, 08:02 AM | #8289 | |
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1. Demand continues to slow and we start to see price wars across industries...this will bring about deflation (not a good thing but much needed right now across the board to correct the crazy covid upswings). 2. Unemployment goes up and again demand goes down. 3. The market recorrects itself based on true valuations and ghost companies and this tech BS that hasn't seen true light of day normalizes to what value it actually offers. This will bring back sense into the S&P500 and Dow and fundamentals will return. The above 3 things will bring about pain for the next few years but they will normalize the world per say. The opposite to that is true stagflation which is the absolute worst thing in the world as prices STAY high and there is no GDP growth. The govt will continue to paper over our problems, print $ and inflation will just continue killing any semblance of the american dream. There are no good outcomes right now but one is FAR better long term than the other.
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05-07-2024, 04:03 PM | #8290 | |
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Plenty of evidence of slowing consumer spending here, too - Ahead of retail earnings, here’s what we know about the consumer so far (CNBC) |
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05-07-2024, 06:07 PM | #8291 | |
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The price of groceries isn't going to put most people homeless. Having shredded cheese go up $2 (or 50%) isn't a huge deal to most people. Most of the inflation we've seen is in the travel sector and obviously home / car insurance. |
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05-07-2024, 06:35 PM | #8292 | |
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Those households live on a shoestring and, in fact, the price of groceries (which was also temporarily heavily subsidized during COVID through expanded SNAP benefits), is a huge issue. Food prices across the board are up quite a lot. Many are having to choose between buying groceries for their families or paying the utility bill. Pile on the other inflated costs that they face, many of which are essentials like rent, car insurance, gas, etc., and they are truly hurting in a way that hasn't been seen in a couple of generations. Inflation may annoy those of us with 2.5% mortgages and healthy stock portfolios, but it crushes the lower income demographics. |
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05-07-2024, 07:19 PM | #8293 | |
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the govt continues to gaslight nonsense about things being well... let me tell you - if you are sitting heavy on assets at low rates, make over 6 figures and have consistent cash flow, this doesn't affect you much... so either there is a TON of these so called well doers... or there is lying all around because the statistics don't align with reality the absolute best thing that can happen right now is a reset to pre covid... which would necessitate a 30% blow to real estate, the stock market and unemployment would go up...it would also necessitate a reset to old margins... but at least we'd back to a normal environment and rates would slowly fall into a more manageable 5 or so %... think that will happen? it wont... because the govt wont let it happen... in other words, median income earners are screwed and stagflation will continue
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05-07-2024, 09:34 PM | #8294 |
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Govt assistance programs, SNAP, unemployment, etc are still under disaster rules or actually no rules, so the hurt for the lower end hasn't hit bottom. States are allowed to waive all rules, restrictions, and expiration of peoples benefits for up to 2yrs after the end of a govt declared disaster, so I don't think that has occurred yet.
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