[The Automotive Enthusiast]

Diesel Fuel Pump There are certain questions that must be asked pretty much every time journalists get in the same room as senior auto-industry executives. Thanks to Volkswagen?s cheatin? heart, the future of diesel passenger cars on both sides of the Atlantic is one of them. After speaking to senior executives from both BMW and Mercedes-Benz at the Geneva auto show, it appears the divide is set to grow, with compression ignition having a long-term future in Europe but with prospects on our side of the Atlantic looking much less rosy. ?In the United States, [diesel] has always been a small minority,? Ian Robertson, BMW?s head of sales and marketing, told Car and Driver. ?Interestingly, a lot of people who bought diesel in the U.S. were Europeans living in America, and they were very enthusiastic about it. But I don?t see diesel picking up in the passenger-car market in the U.S. I think it?s unlikely to have much of a future ahead of it.? Although Robertson admitted to being frustrated by differing emissions standards in different European countries and by the fact that some of them ?class all diesels the same, whether [they are] Euro 6 compliant or 25 years old,? he said BMW predicts diesels will continue for the foreseeable future, gradually being replaced by gasoline plug-in hybrids as standards tighten.
In VW?s Multibillion-Dollar TDI Buyback, Few Owners Opt to Keep Cars

Dieter Zetsche, head of Mercedes-Benz Cars, is in broad agreement. ?The progress that has been made with combustion engines is amazing,? he told journalists at Geneva. ?In that area, the differences between a modern diesel and a gas engine are very limited. Obviously, in the U.S., if we talk about passenger cars and light trucks, the diesel has never played a significant role?that probably won?t change. In Europe it does, and more and more without a downside, with their more modern emission levels.? Given the excellence of next-generation diesel engines like Mercedes-Benz?s new four-cylinder and BMW?s mighty 3.0-liter six, that?s a huge shame.

http://blog.caranddriver.com/bmw-and...ut-not-in-u-s/

[mkoesel]

Like I said in another recent diesel related thread, we'll see whether a diesel G30 ever makes it here. I wouldn't hold my breath if I were in the market. Same goes for the G20 - doesn't feel likely at this point. If we do get anymore diesels, I would say the X3, X5, or X7 are the most likely candidates, but even those I would not bet on.

[Questofthetune]

Interesting that gas hybrids are effecting diesel.

[The Automotive Enthusiast]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Like I said in another recent diesel related thread, we'll see whether a diesel G30 ever makes it here. I wouldn't hold my breath if I were in the market. Same goes for the G20 - doesn't feel likely at this point. If we do get anymore diesels, I would say the X3, X5, or X7 are the most likely candidates, but even those I would not bet on.

VW's diesel scandel really hurt the industry, it seems.

[BimmerMat135]

The G30 530(540)d have been confirmed so far for 2018.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by BimmerMat135

The G30 530(540)d have been confirmed so far for 2018.

Until I see BMW announce it, I remain skeptical.

[SCOTT26]

If sales are ineffective then they will pull them from the market or even introduction. Witness the G31 BMW 5er Touring and the forthcoming BMW 3er Touring G21.
So far the unit Diesel seller has been in the X5. But all other models after Diesel Gate has shown decline. But the eDrive 3er has been making up the advantage.
Expect the same with the 530e and the X3 30exDrive when they are launched.

[The Automotive Enthusiast]

After the VW scandal, I understand why diesels no longer appeal to the consumer.

[fbsm]

Originally Posted by Mo@BMWofFairfax

After the VW scandal, I understand why diesels no longer appeal to the consumer.

There isnt just one bucket of VW diesel customers

You need to distinguish between the different types of diesel customers

there are traditional pre 2008-ish/die hard types who for the most part dont really care about the minute NOX violation/most realize how little co2 these cars put out and how much longer your avg TDI is on the road or just dont care period.

VS

The former prius owners who bought into the clean diesel marketing.....I hate to stereo type but most of the folks I personally know that fall into this bucket are also the types who are "personally invested" in their choices of things like iphone over android.....and who have been teased incessently by their friends over their percieved "poor choice" of the TDI

People chose the 2.0 TDI's for the above and other reasons and many of them would buy a VW TDI again if they come back to the US......the point is that if they do then sales will simply go back to similar sustainable levels we saw pre 2007 with the MkIV and MkV PD engines and prior

VW's EA288 engine is really a spectacular motor.....hope we see it come back to the US

[BimmerMat135]

Originally Posted by SCOTT26

If sales are ineffective then they will pull them from the market or even introduction. Witness the G31 BMW 5er Touring and the forthcoming BMW 3er Touring G21.
So far the unit Diesel seller has been in the X5. But all other models after Diesel Gate has shown decline. But the eDrive 3er has been making up the advantage.
Expect the same with the 530e and the X3 30exDrive when they are launched.

I'll be happy with a G21 320d as well if you bring it in here.

[fbsm]

Originally Posted by BimmerMat135

I'll be happy with a G21 320d as well if you bring it in here.

If they would bring the 1 Series to the US with the 2.0 diesel I would jump all over it

[BimmerMat135]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Until I see BMW announce it, I remain skeptical.

It was confirmed somewhere in the 2-3 last minutes of this video. But as usual we'll wait for official confirmation.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by BimmerMat135

It was confirmed somewhere in the 2-3 last minutes of this video. But as usual we'll wait for official confirmation.

Right, I've seen the video. We need an official press release.

Obviously we do a lot of projecting and forecasting on future models, so I am not trying to be difficult here. I just feel like BMW could sell most (but certainly not all, admittedly) potential diesel sedan buyers the PHEV equivalent instead. There are significant costs associated with bringing the car here and I am not necessarily convinced it will be justified by the number of sales especially once you factor out those who would have simply bought the PHEV instead (rather than some other car completely).

[DivideBYZero]

It's not just the VW scandal. The nitrogen dioxide problem is a key driver now, too. We had too BMW diesels in a row, but last time we changed the Wife's car, M235i. Now all three cars are petrol powered.

[Meeni]

Particulates are also an issue. Most of the smog over european cities is from diesel engines. Even with tech that problem is only partially (or temporarily, until the car ages) addressed. It is very possible at some point diesel engines will be restricted in european urban areas.

[fbsm]

Originally Posted by Meeni

Particulates are also an issue. Most of the smog over european cities is from diesel engines. Even with tech that problem is only partially (or temporarily, until the car ages) addressed. It is very possible at some point diesel engines will be restricted in european urban areas.

Its been mentioned here and elsewhere that folks are cherry picking bits/pieces that they feel good about instead of looking at the larger picture

First and most glaring issue is the upfront "cost" to produce an electric car from a so called environmental perspective is far higher than a standard internal combustion engine....gas OR diesel.

You would need to drive that electric vehicle almost 100k miles before the electric and conventional vehicle would hit parity in terms of emissions if we're including production and operating "cost"

The second most glaring issue is regarding particulate matter......a diesel with a modern particulate filter puts out virtually zero PM and what it does generate is and always has been large diameter and easily dealt with by human lungs....its not particularly carcinogenic

The PM from gas vehicles is very small, penetrates lungs very deeply, is very difficult to expel and is highly carcinogenic/mutagenic......

Want to know how bad battery manufacturing is? Take a look at how ugly mining of rare earth elements required for batteries is.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by fbsm

First and most glaring issue is the upfront "cost" to produce an electric car from a so called environmental perspective is far higher than a standard internal combustion engine....gas OR diesel.

You would need to drive that electric vehicle almost 100k miles before the electric and conventional vehicle would hit parity in terms of emissions if we're including production and operating "cost"

...

Want to know how bad battery manufacturing is? Take a look at how ugly mining of rare earth elements required for batteries is.

This could very well be. For the sake of the discussion, I would just assume you've done your homework and are representing facts correctly.

I think that the thing to remember here is that it has start somewhere, and in order to realize the vision and approach the holy grail zero emission operations for the entire infrastructure, the vehicle's propulsion system clearly has to become emission free.

In the future - a fairly distant future, we'll say - the manufacturing facilities can be powered by zero emission sources of energy, the transportation of the products can be done with zero emission fleets, the batteries (and any other parts or raw materials used by the car, for that matter) can be recycled, and the whole process can generally be made sustainable.

It's true that vehicle exhaust emissions are really only a fraction of the problem, and that in many ways they've been targeted disproportionately and put on a very aggressive - perhaps unfairly so - timeline for reduction/elimination. I would submit that this is in no small part because the vehicle's emissions are the most visible on the average person's radar. You see your car and others' cars pollute every day, but manufacturing emissions and the mining of rare earth metals are not something most think about or even know about. Out of site, out of mind.

Don't get me wrong, I am going to keep driving my high performance cars as long as I can, and they are the probably the last ones to become "green". We can call shenanigans and fight the man - make a statement about the nature of the situation and the way it is being handled politically. But at some point the equation will balance, and the PHEV or EV is much closer in evolution to the final answer than the diesel or gasoline vehicle is. It is just matter of time.

[fbsm]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

This could very well be. For the sake of the discussion, I would just assume you've done your homework and are representing facts correctly.

I think that the thing to remember here is that it has start somewhere, and in order to realize the vision and approach the holy grail zero emission operations for the entire infrastructure, the vehicle's propulsion system clearly has to become emission free.

In the future - a fairly distant future, we'll say - the manufacturing facilities can be powered by zero emission sources of energy, the transportation of the products can be done with zero emission fleets, the batteries (and any other parts or raw materials used by the car, for that matter) can be recycled, and the whole process can generally be made sustainable.

It's true that vehicle exhaust emissions are really only a fraction of the problem, and that in many ways they've been targeted disproportionately and put on a very aggressive - perhaps unfairly so - timeline for reduction/elimination. I would submit that this is in no small part because the vehicle's emissions are the most visible on the average person's radar. You see your car and others' cars pollute every day, but manufacturing emissions and the mining of rare earth metals are not something most think about or even know about. Out of site, out of mind.

Don't get me wrong, I am going to keep driving my high performance cars as long as I can, and they are the probably the last ones to become "green". We can call shenanigans and fight the man - make a statement about the nature of the situations and the way it is being handled politically. But at some point the equation will balance, and the PHEV or EV is much closer in evolution to the final answer than the diesel or gasoline vehicle is. It is just matter of time.

I have issues with a couple of points

First is the notion that we have to "Start somewhere"

We "Started" a couple decades back......look at changes in fuels as well as technology of gas/diesel engines and associated emmissions.....and there's a long way to go potentially with fuels/emmissions and efficiency of traditional solutions which are far more cost effective than many/most other options

Second as previously mentioned is that the entire life cycle of the vehicle from production to retirement is almost never discussed because how many cars are actually driven to 100k which is currently the rough break even/parity point for traditional/electric vehicles

Third is the presumtion that EV's are the solution while the majority of folks ignore the above

If folks were smart about this discussion they would be discussing total "cost" over the presumed life of a vehicle instead of just focusing on MPG/Emissions per mile or tank of fuel or per charge

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by fbsm

I have issues with a couple of points

First is the notion that we have to "Start somewhere"

We "Started" a couple decades back......look at changes in fuels as well as technology of gas/diesel engines and associated emmissions.....and there's a long way to go potentially with fuels/emmissions and efficiency of traditional solutions which are far more cost effective than many/most other options

Right, but I was speaking in terms of zero tailpipe emissions. We can do all the optimizations we want to the ICE powertrain (and that's great too as as stopgap effort toward meeting legislation), but it's not going to evolve into a result that is anywhere near zero.

The idea of "starting somewhere" is to come at it from the other end. Begin with something resembling a minimum viable product of the end result - whatever sort of emissions free propulsion can be engineered, implemented, and sold today. Then refine everything, working backward, iteratively, until the whole thing is sustainable soup to nuts. It's not a new approach to solving tough problems. Sometimes the first steps take place closer to the finish line.

Second as previously mentioned is that the entire life cycle of the vehicle from production to retirement is almost never discussed because how many cars are actually driven to 100k which is currently the rough break even/parity point for traditional/electric vehicles

Sure, but I acknowledge and cover that. Again, the numbers will change as the entirety of the ecosystem changes.

Third is the presumtion that EV's are the solution while the majority of folks ignore the above

EV or not, zero tailpipe is obviously an attainable goal. Scaling it to everyone and to the other parts of the problem beyond the tailpipe are another a challenge. But even if not under the same scrutiny and with the same amount of press coverage, it is all being addressed in some form or another.

It isn't necessarily fair that the diesel automobile gets the shaft while the transport vessel spits out more pollution than 1,000,000 diesel passenger car engines over the same time span. But both the boat and the car need to be addressed eventually.

[fbsm]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Right, but I was speaking in terms of zero tailpipe emissions. We can do all the optimizations we want to the ICE powertrain (and that's great too as as stopgap effort toward meeting legislation), but it's not going to evolve into a result that is anywhere near zero.

The idea of "starting somewhere" is to come at it from the other end. Begin with something resembling a minimum viable product of the end result - whatever sort of emissions free propulsion can be engineered, implemented, and sold today. Then refine everything, working backward, iteratively, until the whole thing is sustainable soup to nuts. It's not a new approach to solving tough problems. Sometimes the first steps take place closer to the finish line.



Sure, but I acknowledge and cover that. Again, the numbers will change as the entirety of the ecosystem changes.



EV or not, zero tailpipe is obviously an attainable goal. Scaling it to everyone and to the other parts of the problem beyond the tailpipe are another a challenge. But even if not under the same scrutiny and with the same amount of press coverage, it is all being addressed in some form or another.

It isn't necessarily fair that the diesel automobile gets the shaft while the transport vessel spits out more pollution than 1,000,000 diesel passenger car engines over the same time span. But both the boat and the car need to be addressed eventually.

Maybe I was unclear but the focus on what comes out of the tail pipe to the exclusion of the cost/impact to manufacture the car is not an "honest" accounting for impact over the life of the vehicle

Electric cars are a trainwreck evironmentally speaking to manufacture and that MUST be included in any "HONEST" discussion of comparison between different modalities.

Whether its "Fair" or not wrt auto's vs other machines isnt a question in my mind

It is however unbelievably short sighted because it ignores how your food is produced, transported and even packaged......if you do something as short sighted as what Germany did by professing to make illegal all new non electric cars after some year then it ignores whats going to necessarily happen to the cost of fuel/other petroleim products used.

Anyone considered yet what every single tractor/ag machine runs on?

Germany might find the cost of german produced goods go through the roof

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by fbsm

Maybe I was unclear but the focus on what comes out of the tail pipe to the exclusion of the cost/impact to manufacture the car is not an "honest" accounting for impact over the life of the vehicle

You weren't unclear at all. My replies addressed your posts with that very understanding in mind.

Like I say, cleaning up the cars is the easy more convenient part of the problem, and it's getting more attention. But that doesn't mean the other parts aren't being addressed too. They are more difficult to solve and will take longer. In the meantime, there are some changes in economics and social impact, sure.

[fbsm]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

You weren't unclear at all. My replies addressed your posts with that very understanding in mind.

Like I say, cleaning up the cars is the easy more convenient part of the problem, and it's getting more attention. But that doesn't mean the other parts aren't being addressed too. They are more difficult to solve and will take longer. In the meantime, there are some changes in economics and social impact, sure.

I'll keep my eye's open for John Deere to start manufacturing all electric farm equipment and for GE to STOP making diesel electrics that run the overwhelming majority of all trains