[yco]

[Salty Dog]

I watched this a while ago, they are all good for about 75-80% of what the manufactures say they can go.

[mkoesel]

I didn’t watch the video, but just like an ICE vehicle, an EV’s efficiency varies greatly depending on how it’s driven, terrain, road conditions, and environmental conditions. I only occasionally achieved the advertised efficiency in my ICE vehicles, but sometimes I was able to exceed it. The same has been the case for my EV.

[BayE30]

How does he come to the conclusion that the Tesla wins? IMO the Hyundai won, as it got the closest to the manufacturer specified range.

[Salty Dog]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

I didn’t watch the video, but just like an ICE vehicle, an EV’s efficiency varies greatly depending on how it’s driven, terrain, road conditions, and environmental conditions. I only occasionally achieved the advertised efficiency in my ICE vehicles, but sometimes I was able to exceed it. The same has been the case for my EV.

Except "range anxiety" isn't a thing with ICE.

[SteveinArizona]

Originally Posted by Salty Dog

Except "range anxiety" isn't a thing with ICE.

It can be. I remember years ago taking a back road from one city to another and realizing that there were no gas stations on the road. I ended up turning everything off and driving at 50 mph and praying that I would get to a gas station. I did manage to get to one.

So there is less range anxiety with an ICE but there can still be some.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Salty Dog

Except "range anxiety" isn't a thing with ICE.

That's true, yes. But if we break down range anxiety, it results from three major concerns:

a) How far can I go until i have to recharge?
b) Where can I recharge?
c) How long will it take to recharge?

For the vast majority, factors (b) and (c) are going to be the biggest contributors to anxiety. Once those questions are answered to someone's satisfaction (a) is largely inconsequential because it is then matter of convenience rather than the ability to actually make it to the destination in a timely fashion. It's why if I blow through a tank of gas in 200 miles in an ICE vehicle driving through the countryside like I stole the car, I don't care. I know I can just refuel it almost anywhere, and very quickly.

So then, as long as range is not ridiculously low, not hitting the advertised range in an EV is ultimately not where the biggest point of friction is. The charging time is really the issue for most people. Finding a charger is also an issue but even when chargers become ubiquitous, the time to charge remains a significant barrier. And it is a barrier that can only be cleared by technological advancements that, so far, have been elusive.

[Salty Dog]

Originally Posted by SteveinArizona

It can be. I remember years ago taking a back road from one city to another and realizing that there were no gas stations on the road. I ended up turning everything off and driving at 50 mph and praying that I would get to a gas station. I did manage to get to one.

So there is less range anxiety with an ICE but there can still be some.

Range anxiety seems to be a term that's come into being since EV's have come onto the market. We've all been in the situation when were running low and there isn't a gas station around, the last time that happened to me was over 20 years ago.

[Salty Dog]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

That's true, yes. But if we break down range anxiety, it results from three major concerns:

a) How far can I go until i have to recharge?
b) Where can I recharge?
c) How long will it take to recharge?

For the vast majority, factors (b) and (c) are going to be the biggest contributors to anxiety. Once those questions are answered to someone's satisfaction (a) is largely inconsequential because it is then matter of convenience rather than the ability to actually make it to the destination in a timely fashion. It's why if I blow through a tank of gas in 200 miles in an ICE vehicle driving through the countryside like I stole the car, I don't care. I know I can just refuel it almost anywhere, and very quickly.

So then, as long as range is not ridiculously low, not hitting the advertised range in an EV is ultimately not where the biggest point of friction is. The charging time is really the issue for most people. Finding a charger is also an issue but even when chargers become ubiquitous, the time to charge remains a significant barrier. And it is a barrier that can only be cleared by technological advancements that, so far, have been elusive.

Ok, so range anxiety and recharge anxiety. The video of the Porsche Taycan drag times is interesting, from 20% to 100% charge at a fast charge station takes 53 minutes. If I have to worry about where a charge station is and how many other cars might be lined up when I get there I'm not interested. And I suspect that is a main factor that is stopping people from making the switch. The transition will come, but until these factors are addressed EV's will not become mainstream, faster in urban centres where folks have shorter distances to drive and the ability to charge overnight at home.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by SteveinArizona

So there is less range anxiety with an ICE but there can still be some.

Like I say, its the recharge time that's the major differentiator. You don't worry about about being late for an important engagement because it might take an hour or more to fill the ICE vehicle with fuel. You just don't. And as a corollary, no one is anxious about buying an ICE vehicle because that one time they almost ran out of gas and had to turn off the accessories to make it home. It's just not an issue. It's not a thing that makes you pause at the dealership.

If the charge time gets addressed, that fixes everything. It's really that simple. And conversely, until it does, EVs are simply not going to see adoption in appreciable numbers.

Originally Posted by Salty Dog

Ok, so range anxiety and recharge anxiety. The video of the Porsche Taycan drag times is interesting, from 20% to 100% charge at a fast charge station takes 53 minutes. If I have to worry about where a charge station is and how many other cars might be lined up when I get there I'm not interested. And I suspect that is a main factor that is stopping people from making the switch. The transition will come, but until these factors are addressed EV's will not become mainstream, faster in urban centres where folks have shorter distances to drive and the ability to charge overnight at home.

Yes. It's that.

Two vehicles on the showroom floor:

a) ICE with 250 miles range
b) EV with 250 miles range

You barely blink an eye at the former. You absolutely balk at the latter. Because the former can be at 500 miles, 750 miles, 1000 miles with 3, 6, 9, minutes of your time. The latter will take you, at best four additional hours to go 1000 miles. That's at absolute best. Worst case, the whole damn day.

Recharge anxiety, range anxiety. Whatever you call it, the recharge time is the elephant in the room.

[Salty Dog]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Like I say, its the recharge time that's the major differentiator. You don't worry about about being late for an important engagement because it might take an hour or more to fill the ICE vehicle with fuel. You just don't. And as a corollary, no one is anxious about buying an ICE vehicle because that one time they almost ran out of gas and had to turn off the accessories to make it home. It's just not an issue. It's not a thing that makes you pause at the dealership.

If the charge time gets addressed, that fixes everything. It's really that simple. And conversely, until it does, EVs are simply not going to see adoption in appreciable numbers.

So even if you could charge in the time it takes to fill a tank of gas, the infrastructure that would have to be put into place to support those charging rates is the problem. Let's say that every gas station put in a enough fast chargers to accommodate a 50% market share of EV's. The power supply would be staggering. Think about large filling stations along major highways, there would actually have to be larger transmission lines installed to support them.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Salty Dog

So even if you could charge in the time it takes to fill a tank of gas, the infrastructure that would have to be put into place to support those charging rates is the problem. Let's say that every gas station put in a enough fast chargers to accommodate a 50% market share of EV's. The power supply would be staggering. Think about large filling stations along major highways, there would actually have to be larger transmission lines installed to support them.

Right, but that's by and large a "throw money at it" problem. If it had to get done, it would get done. But the recharge time is a physics issue. It's a limitation of the what we know at this point in time. Even you go and science the shit out of it, you can't cheat it. I'm not saying that with an essentially unlimited R&D budget, we can't get EVs to go 250 more miles in five minutes time. Maybe we can. But you still need the man days to figure that out. How long? Who knows.

I'm also not saying the infrastructure isn't a challenge as well - it definitely is. But if we wanted to do it, if we really wanted it soon, we could pump it with cash and do it. The problem is there's no point in doing until you know people are going to use it. And people aren't going to use it until they can recharge the car while they buy a coffee and some Funyuns. It could be a quarter century until that's possible.

[Salty Dog]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Right, but that's by and large a "throw money at it" problem. If it had to get done, it would get done. But the recharge time is a physics issue. It's a limitation of the what we know at this point in time. Even you go and science the shit out of it, you can't cheat it. I'm not saying that with an essentially unlimited R&D budget, we can't get EVs to go 250 more miles in five minutes time. Maybe we can. But you still need the man days to figure that out. How long? Who knows.

I'm also not saying the infrastructure isn't a challenge as well - it definitely is. But if we wanted to do it, if we really wanted it soon, we could pump it with cash and do it. The problem is there's no point in doing until you know people are going to use it. And people aren't going to use it until they can recharge the car while they buy a coffee and some Funyuns. It could be a quarter century until that's possible.

So this may be a big stumbling block that will slow EV's from taking market share anytime soon. There are fanboys out there that seem to think that in the next 5 years they will be the majority of car sales, there are so many logistical problem to overcome that it's going to take decades before the majority of car sales are EV's.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Salty Dog

So this may be a big stumbling block that will slow EV's from taking market share anytime soon. There are fanboys out there that seem to think that in the next 5 years they will be the majority of car sales, there are so many logistical problem to overcome that it's going to take decades before the majority of car sales are EV's.

Probably, yes.

The flip side of the coin is, how often do you really need to go a thousand miles in a day? Or even five hundred? And even when you do, do you really want to do it without stopping a few times to grab a meal, stretch your legs? The answers to those questions depend on the individual. I know that for me, if I take a road trip, I want to decide when I stop and for how long. If I want to stop only to refuel, then I expect I'll be able to do that. So for me, if I go on a long trip, I'm not taking an EV. Others are less particular.

However, there's a middling use case that your "fanboys" also tend to overlook. That is, I might have a busy day where I've got two, three, maybe even four stops I have to make after work, potentially all in different cities - maybe I've got to pickup something specific at a specialty store in this suburb, and then I've got my kids soccer game over there, and I've also got to drop off little Joey's friends after the game. Or, maybe its a weekend day and I've got a bunch of things I need to get done - who knows what. The miles add up, and I'm going to have to charge at some point, even if I have a 400 mile battery. This one, to me, is the biggest issue. Even if there were a charger on every corner, I'm busy, and I don't have time to wait around for the thing to charge.

The EV die-hards will say that the benefits of the EV are so great that these types of needs will be de-prioritized and expectations will change. Maybe I can do some sort of ZipCar thing on days like this, and then I just park the car with a dead battery, and pickup another one that's got a full charge. Or at the very least, maybe if I have these types of needs I can keep an ICE car in the stable for that situation, but I'll drive my EV most of the time. Or maybe secondary fuel cells become a thing for those occasional times I need to super quick turn-around (obvious major infrastructure demands for that, of course).

So that's where the real disconnect is in my mind. There's reality - there's what people want today - and right now driving an ICE can be thought of as "cheap" insurance to make sure I can cover all those scenarios. Even if (when, really) the EV costs the same as the ICE, you're still willing to pay for the peace of mind of knowing you aren't going to be f'd when you really need to be somewhere "right now". So it becomes more of a question of how much cheaper (TCO) does the EV have to be so that I start to relax my thinking, and lower my expectations? That's the part that the zealots argue is going to happen "soon". They believe that the EV's advantages (and as an EV owner, I know exactly what those are, and they are definitely compelling) are going to change the way people expect to be able to use their vehicles. I personally remain skeptical.

[N54Yankee]

Didn’t watch the whole thing but I’ll mention that I’m guessing these tested vehicles are relatively new and as we all know from from rechargeable tools, phones and all that the more it’s recharged over time the less charge it will hold and more quickly goes away. Don’t know how much a new battery pack change in these cars cost but it will have to be much sooner then one would need a new or rebuilt ICE engine I should think. That’s a big factor given a car 3 or 4 years plus old. The batteries will not be as strong down the road over time then a combustion engine. Lower temps as mentioned have significant draws of these batteries and not forgetting that having a heavy foot much more quickly shortens the batteries range. I’m not ready to join that club.

[Red Bread]

You guys are making shit up. My wife drives seven miles a day. It takes her weeks to need gas. If I plugged an EV in overnight on a weekend, she'd be fine. Inevitably her car will need gas when it's 37, windy and rainy and the first two stations I go to will have premium out of order. We already use my car exclusively for road trips, so there's really zero opportunity for EV range anxiety in our situation. Given the number of EV'a just in my community and the fact that I've never seen one on the side of the road, I'd guess they're not freaking out about it either.

When I was in high school, we had a weekly car club meeting, someone's dad would bring a car to school and the teens would drool on it. The funniest one was an L88 Corvette. The owner commented that it had a four gallon tank and that he couldn't make it to Ft Worth from the middle of Dallas. So 60's 427 sports cars are my idea of range anxiety.

[Conissah]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

You guys are making shit up. My wife drives seven miles a day. It takes her weeks to need gas. If I plugged an EV in overnight on a weekend, she'd be fine. Inevitably her car will need gas when it's 37, windy and rainy and the first two stations I go to will have premium out of order. We already use my car exclusively for road trips, so there's really zero opportunity for EV range anxiety in our situation. Given the number of EV'a just in my community and the fact that I've never seen one on the side of the road, I'd guess they're not freaking out about it either.

I think you're missing the point. Most people that are talking about range anxiety are talking about the EV being their ONLY car. I drive 50-60 miles a day, and I would have no problem dailying an EV. Simply plug it up when I'm home, and when I leave in the morning, unplug and I have a full charge, easy enough. If it were my only car, I'd have trouble visiting the mountains or the beach or my parents. But since I have other vehicles to drive, I simply wouldn't take the EV out. The same cannot be said for others. Not everyone has the means to have multiple cars, or the room.

[KennyFSU]

Instead of charging stations they should have battery swap stations where you can rent/return the core.

[Conissah]

Originally Posted by KennyFSU

Instead of charging stations they should have battery swap stations where you can rent/return the core.

Hot swap. If they were simple connectors, this would be the move.

[Alfisti]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

Like I say, its the recharge time that's the major differentiator. You don't worry about about being late for an important engagement because it might take an hour or more to fill the ICE vehicle with fuel. You just don't. And as a corollary, no one is anxious about buying an ICE vehicle because that one time they almost ran out of gas and had to turn off the accessories to make it home. It's just not an issue. It's not a thing that makes you pause at the dealership.

If the charge time gets addressed, that fixes everything. It's really that simple. And conversely, until it does, EVs are simply not going to see adoption in appreciable numbers.



Yes. It's that.

Two vehicles on the showroom floor:

a) ICE with 250 miles range
b) EV with 250 miles range

You barely blink an eye at the former. You absolutely balk at the latter. Because the former can be at 500 miles, 750 miles, 1000 miles with 3, 6, 9, minutes of your time. The latter will take you, at best four additional hours to go 1000 miles. That's at absolute best. Worst case, the whole damn day.

Recharge anxiety, range anxiety. Whatever you call it, the recharge time is the elephant in the room.

100% always my point. People focus on range, that's near irrelevant now, the issue is charge time.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by Conissah

I think you're missing the point. Most people that are talking about range anxiety are talking about the EV being their ONLY car. I drive 50-60 miles a day, and I would have no problem dailying an EV. Simply plug it up when I'm home, and when I leave in the morning, unplug and I have a full charge, easy enough. If it were my only car, I'd have trouble visiting the mountains or the beach or my parents. But since I have other vehicles to drive, I simply wouldn't take the EV out. The same cannot be said for others. Not everyone has the means to have multiple cars, or the room.

Yeah, but I had a Miata as an only car for years. With enough desire, you can make almost anything work.

I'd imagine the majority of folks who would consider an EV have the means to rent an ICE for longer trips, or would do what most people do and fly there.

My Miata and M Coupe were just awful interstate cars, even before track modifications. I'd rent an appropriate car for long trips if I wasn't flying. Not sure why an EV wouldn't be treated similarly.

I do see the appeal of the fast charging on the Taycan. 80% charge in fifteen minutes means I could make the drive from Austin to my folks in Santa Fe with three charges, which is about the number of stops my wife and kid would require anyway. I wouldn't take an EV on that drive, but I have seen an increasing number of them each time I make the drive.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by KennyFSU

Instead of charging stations they should have battery swap stations where you can rent/return the core.

Tesla had this for a hot minute but apparently canceled it because people wouldn't return for their original battery and got pissed to be charged thousands for the new battery.