[Victor.L3IchibanM3]

Once unthinkable, now all but inevitable, triple-digit crude is certain to have an impact on your finances. Make sure it's the right one.

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August 01, 2006 -- 16:20 ET
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By Michael Brush
Investors, get ready for $100-a-barrel oil.

Energy experts say this kind of portfolio-wrenching spike in the price of oil isn't far off. They chalk it up to two factors:

There are basic underlying energy shortages, while global demand from economic hot spots like China and India ratchets higher every month.

A half-dozen potential geopolitical flash points around the globe could flare up at any moment, increasing worries among oil buyers at best and disrupting supply at worst.

"We think $100-a-barrel oil is very possible," says Frank Holmes, who manages the U.S. Global Investors' Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), one of the top-performing energy funds, up nearly 50% in the past year.

Strictly speaking, that kind of spike would be nothing new. Adjusted for inflation, oil traded at equivalent levels early in the 1980s. But a lasting move above $100 a barrel would have devastating effects on your investment portfolio if you were ill-prepared.

You would miss out on gains if you aren't long energy producers with long-lived reserves in politically safe regions like North America -- think Encana (ECA, news, msgs), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, news, msgs) and Suncor Energy (SU, news, msgs). Also getting a boost would be alternative-energy plays such as Pacific Ethanol (PEIX, news, msgs) and Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE, news, msgs), and ethanol and uranium supplier Cameco (CCJ, news, msgs).

The bad news is that a move to $100 for oil would send gasoline above $4 a gallon, taking another bite out of consumer spending. This would hurt retailers serving lower-income consumers, such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs), Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR, news, msgs) and 99 Cents Only Stores (NDN, news, msgs), and restaurant chains such as Wendy's International (WEN, news, msgs), Brinker International (EAT, news, msgs) and CBRL Group (CBRL, news, msgs).

Here's a closer look at what could push oil over $100 -- and at the potential winners and losers.

Supply-demand constraints
Holmes thinks supply constraints alone will be enough to put oil above $100, without any help from geopolitical flare-ups. In a world with 6.5 billion people, Holmes said, "3.5 billion are in economies that must grow at 6% a year or politicians lose their jobs."

By this he means that a sharp economic slowdown in rapid-growth countries such as China or India could lead to regime-toppling social unrest. So political leaders know they have to keep their economies humming, and that requires more oil. "They are embracing the American dream," says Holmes.

[Paul330d]

If it makes you feel any better, fuel has been $7 or 8 a gallon here in Europe for several years

[- Paul -]

Originally Posted by Paul330d

If it makes you feel any better, fuel has been $7 or 8 a gallon here in Europe for several years

Yep - and your (US) cars cost way less than us Europeans pay aswell!!!

[Victor.L3IchibanM3]

w0w you must be a balla but we live in USA where the president is a JACKASS:mad:

[BellasBmw]

Last night i spent the most i've ever paid for gas. It was $50 to fill my car up. I was so sad, because its hard enough making payments, but its also another $150 in gas. Man, pretty soon ill have to give up my E90 for a Prius

[MonacoBlueNJ]

I'd gladly pay $5 for gas if it meant road traffic would be cut in half.

[- Paul -]

£50 + to fill up

[Gearcraft]

Originally Posted by BellasBmw

Last night i spent the most i've ever paid for gas. It was $50 to fill my car up. I was so sad, because its hard enough making payments, but its also another $150 in gas. Man, pretty soon ill have to give up my E90 for a Prius

is that 150 bucks for the whole month? i average more than that. if that makes you feel any better.

[txusa03]

so what is your suggestion for getting ready? sell our e90 and get a toyato prius? I'll deal with it when it get here, even if I have to steal gas from my neighboor's car . With the current gas price, I have seen so many news reporting of "gas and run"-meaning pump and no pay.

[BellasBmw]

Originally Posted by txusa03

so what is your suggestion for getting ready? sell our e90 and get a toyato prius? I'll deal with it when it get here, even if I have to steal gas from my neighboor's car . With the current gas price, I have seen so many news reporting of "gas and run"-meaning pump and no pay.

About 4 months ago, i was getting gas and i gave the attendant $35, but i told her to stop the pump at $34 cause i wanted to buy a pack of gum. Well, i guess she forgot, and i got $6 worth of free gas. I never went inside to tell her, i just took off. LoL, i need the $6 alot more than Shell does! haha

But anyway- I wouldnt mind paying more money for gas, if in some way it was a cleaner fuel that was better for the enviroment

[BellasBmw]

Originally Posted by BadBob

That's called theft.

So is $5/ gallon

[selm]

I understand that the Europeans always love to chime in about having always paid $7-8 per gallon, but there are a couple of reasons why I think that is a bogus argument:

1. In general, EU cars have lower displacement and better gas mileage. Therefore, they consume less. If I were in Europe gas would cost 2x but I would get 2x the mpg so the net effect would be 0 because I would probably be driving a 120d.
2. Most of the incremental cost is tax, which one could argue a portion goes back to the people. Whereas in the US I have always paid taxes but get very little benefit from them. In Europe, there are things like paid for medical coverage, paid for school, etc. In the US I have some benefit in roads and police, etc. but the % of tax that goes to those services is very small.
3. The European economy is built for $7-8 per gallon, whereas the US is not and has a tough time adjusting to radical changes in price.

[txusa03]

Originally Posted by BellasBmw

About 4 months ago, i was getting gas and i gave the attendant $35, but i told her to stop the pump at $34 cause i wanted to buy a pack of gum. Well, i guess she forgot, and i got $6 worth of free gas. I never went inside to tell her, i just took off. LoL, i need the $6 alot more than Shell does! haha

But anyway- I wouldnt mind paying more money for gas, if in some way it was a cleaner fuel that was better for the enviroment

So you knew subconsciously that you are only pumping $34 but you somehow forgot and let it rise to $41 (if I understand your story and my math is correct). You also did not care to go back in to get the gum either...

You know what they say, if you steal from other, someday someone will steal from you. Shell is robing ppl every second so I guess once in a while you get some money in return. Carefull as they do have video camera...

[BellasBmw]

Originally Posted by txusa03

So you knew subconsciously that you are only pumping $34 but you somehow forgot and let it rise to $41 (if I understand your story and my math is correct). You also did not care to go back in to get the gum either...

You know what they say, if you steal from other, someday someone will steal from you. Shell is robing ppl every second so I guess once in a while you get some money in return. Carefull as they do have video camera...

Wasnt my fault- the woman should have been paying attention. So you're saying all of you would have gone back inside and said something? BS...

Anyway i wasnt posting for a mr. rogers lecture, all im saying is that hey i got a break that day

[nmulax]

Originally Posted by BellasBmw

Last night i spent the most i've ever paid for gas. It was $50 to fill my car up. I was so sad, because its hard enough making payments, but its also another $150 in gas. Man, pretty soon ill have to give up my E90 for a Prius

$150 a month is not bad at all; and be happy that $50 is the most you've ever paid.

I've filled up my E90 twice so far. $49.50 the first time, and $49 even the second time. I spend $350-400 on gas each month.

[Nikki]

I just filled it up, cost $53. It was I think $3.47/gallon.

[ward]

I've had pumps cut me off at 50 bucks, leaving me just shy of being completely refilled


must suck to have a truck, most stations only allow a certain amount of $$ per fillup

[ScBlacksunshine]

Originally Posted by BellasBmw

Last night i spent the most i've ever paid for gas. It was $50 to fill my car up. I was so sad, because its hard enough making payments, but its also another $150 in gas. Man, pretty soon ill have to give up my E90 for a Prius

Sorry Bella, just for that I am going to have to call Dog the Bounty hunter on you..

[tl_boy]

I hope you're not my neighbor.

Originally Posted by txusa03

so what is your suggestion for getting ready? sell our e90 and get a toyato prius? I'll deal with it when it get here, even if I have to steal gas from my neighboor's car . With the current gas price, I have seen so many news reporting of "gas and run"-meaning pump and no pay.

[ska///235i]

so how many more years till the next election?

[BellasBmw]

Originally Posted by nmulax

$150 a month is not bad at all; and be happy that $50 is the most you've ever paid.

I've filled up my E90 twice so far. $49.50 the first time, and $49 even the second time. I spend $350-400 on gas each month.

Yea i know most of you drive a lot more, but i also dont make as much money as most of you. Geez isnt it sad when we can say that paying $2.15/ gallon was ok. lol

[LH1]

I'm actually not to bothered with the prices. I only live about 4 miles from work, so if I fill up it'll last about 2 weeks. I don't do alot of driving on the weekend so even if 87 were to hit $5, I'm still not sweatin it.