[dumptruck]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

The market always comes back.

#remindme 5 years

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by dumptruck

#remindme 5 years

Today feels like the bottom. VIX is finally >30...it was only in the high 20's the past couple of months when we were in that downward trend.

This is the capitulation we needed.

I actually agree with Tom Lee. I think it's V Shape pretty soon.

[dumptruck]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Today feels like the bottom.

#remindme 5 days

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

We have all the leverage here.

Ummmm....we don't and you'll see play out very soon. All we've done is made China much stronger. Watch.

When it comes to cars, I have no issue with never buying a foreign car again.

You probably should start shopping Honda as they make some of the most "American" cars.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

If your time horizon is at least >5 years why do you care? The market always comes back. I have been buying the past 2 days...AMZN is below $180 now...

You bought Amazon? My God the irony and the hypocrisy.

[440i6MT]

Originally Posted by Mech Spec

Guys 100 years ago wasn't that long ago! Also nothing bad happened in 1929!

Also America was a great place to live in the early 1900's! (Hint: it was atrociously bad compared to post ww2 except for a very small subset of people)

Life in America post-1945 is a historical aberration.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Today feels like the bottom. VIX is finally >30...it was only in the high 20's the past couple of months when we were in that downward trend. ...

This is my problem with the VIX. It is a backwards volatility measure so it really doesn’t predict; and it is very sensitive to market shocks. While the big shocks of yesterday and today technically increase volatility, in reality what is intended is a sense of ongoing swings and not spikes and shocks (unless they become the norm).

So I’d be ignoring VIX for a few sessions; or maybe trade on the assumption it will fall pretty quickly back to 20ish.

Options pricing also might be a bit skewed by this, so it could be a good time to write covered calls - if you believe the stocks won’t bounce back.

[ASAP]

dow 1600 pts down... not so bad 😆

[kudos]

Originally Posted by dumptruck

My current theory is that this is an inroads to bypassing congress and installing tyranny. Sure, the pesky constitution gives congress the power to appropriate tax dollars, but the executive currently controls how tariffs are spent. If all revenue is now derived through tariffs, congress has nothing to appropriate and all spending becomes dependent on a partisan executive. Why outlaw and disband congress openly like other dictators when you can just render them superfluous and ignore them?

"We are in a second revolution and it will be bloodless if they let it."

1. Collection:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) under the Department of Homeland Security is responsible for collecting tariffs at ports of entry.

2. Oversight and Use:

Once collected, the money goes into the U.S. Treasury, specifically into the general fund.

The Department of the Treasury manages these funds.

Congress, through its power of the purse, decides how this revenue is spent via the appropriations process.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

You bought Amazon? My God the irony and the hypocrisy.

What is ironic about that?

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What is ironic about that?

Ummm...over 70% of the products sold on Amazon aresourced from China and a vast majority of the sellers are China based too.

[dumptruck]

Originally Posted by kudos

1. Collection:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) under the Department of Homeland Security is responsible for collecting tariffs at ports of entry.

2. Oversight and Use:

Once collected, the money goes into the U.S. Treasury, specifically into the general fund.

The Department of the Treasury manages these funds.

Congress, through its power of the purse, decides how this revenue is spent via the appropriations process.

Like i said, current theory.

Although, an external revenue service may well be within the executive’s power to create; an idea that he regularly endorses. Eliminating or drastically curtailing income tax would barely leave congress enough money to function once all that sweet consumer spending goes not to treasury, but through the ERS with customs directing the flow.

[kudos]

Originally Posted by dumptruck

Like i said, current theory.

Although, an external revenue service may well be within the executive’s power to create; an idea that he regularly endorses. Eliminating or drastically curtailing income tax would barely leave congress enough money to function once all that sweet consumer spending goes not to treasury, but through the ERS with customs directing the flow.

Creating the External Revenue Service would require Congress to approve in the first place. CBP is also under the executive branch yet still the money from tariffs is decided by congress. I'm not sure what your point is other than jumping to conclusions.

[dumptruck]

Originally Posted by kudos

Creating the External Revenue Service would require Congress to approve in the first place. CBP is also under the executive branch yet still the money from tariffs is decided by congress. I'm not sure what your point is other than jumping to conclusions.

https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news...-role-in-trade

Filed yesterday no less.

[LuvMyE92]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I think it's V Shape pretty soon.

You mean pear shaped, right?

I've been reading this thread via the daily email digest, so I don't know which posts have been moderated to the trash can, but I've not seen anyone point out that these "reciprocal tarriffs" are in fact, not based on existing tarriffs. Instead, they are based on trade imbalances. And that's a function of many other things other than tarriffs or VATs or whatever bugaboo you want to name. It's a function of we want more stuff than they do, the dollar is a lot stronger than most other currencies (which makes our exports much more expensive and therefore less attractive) and probably a lot of other macro economic factors that can't be rectified by arbitrary fees. I'm really not sure how our trading partners can negotiate themselves out of this trap. If there is another world-wide recession, there will be even less buying.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

This is my problem with the VIX. It is a backwards volatility measure so it really doesn’t predict; and it is very sensitive to market shocks. While the big shocks of yesterday and today technically increase volatility, in reality what is intended is a sense of ongoing swings and not spikes and shocks (unless they become the norm).

So I’d be ignoring VIX for a few sessions; or maybe trade on the assumption it will fall pretty quickly back to 20ish.

Options pricing also might be a bit skewed by this, so it could be a good time to write covered calls - if you believe the stocks won’t bounce back.

What do you mean it's backward volatility? I'm not following that. My only point was that when the Vix is >40 it normally doesn't stay there for long and is pretty much always a sign of a huge bounce very soon.

If Trump does nothing this weekend, the market is going to tank again on Monday. The S&P recession levels are around 4400 (16x) earnings. We may not hit 4400 but that's the bottom

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by LuvMyE92

You mean pear shaped, right?

I've been reading this thread via the daily email digest, so I don't know which posts have been moderated to the trash can, but I've not seen anyone point out that these "reciprocal tarriffs" are in fact, not based on existing tarriffs. Instead, they are based on trade imbalances. And that's a function of many other things other than tarriffs or VATs or whatever bugaboo you want to name. It's a function of we want more stuff than they do, the dollar is a lot stronger than most other currencies (which makes our exports much more expensive and therefore less attractive) and probably a lot of other macro economic factors that can't be rectified by arbitrary fees. I'm really not sure how our trading partners can negotiate themselves out of this trap. If there is another world-wide recession, there will be even less buying.

Yes, the market is already pricing in 'less buying' That's exactly what is happening right now.

I still maintain V.

[NickyC]

Some people are going to make a massive amount of money in the coming days. It won't be me, and just like the past, I'll look back on the coming events and wonder how I missed something so obvious.

[dumptruck]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Some people are going to make a massive amount of money in the coming days. It won't be me, and just like the past, I'll look back on the coming events and wonder how I missed something so obvious.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What do you mean it's backward volatility? I'm not following that. My only point was that when the Vix is >40 it normally doesn't stay there for long and is pretty much always a sign of a huge bounce very soon.

If Trump does nothing this weekend, the market is going to tank again on Monday. The S&P recession levels are around 4400 (16x) earnings. We may not hit 4400 but that's the bottom

I wasn’t arguing your point and I’m sorry I didn’t make that clear. I was just commenting on the VIX as a predictor of volatility, which I don’t think it is very good at. It measures recent historic price movements (volatility), that is what I meant about it being backward looking. There is no measure, of course, of forward or future volatility, no good predictor that I’m aware of. But by its nature, VIX goes extreme based on one or two trading days, and I think that invalidates its value in those circumstances. That’s what happened this past week; VIX should steadily fall since it is pretty safe to predict we won’t be seeing the same percentage moves (up or down) in coming sessions that we saw Thursday and Friday. Obviously just my $0.02

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Some people are going to make a massive amount of money in the coming days. It won't be me, and just like the past, I'll look back on the coming events and wonder how I missed something so obvious.

Maybe the obvious is right in front of us...Dimon sold $250M of JPM mid February. Buffett obviously huge cash position. All of these are public.

They know

[medphysdave]

It's unfortunate that the average person is told to not try to "time the market" even though some of the pullbacks are obvious based on data. I even had a calendar reminder for mid October to sell everything and hold cash until "the" pullback. Expecting a 20% pullback, but starting to DCA at 10% drop. Did I follow this? No. I held everything and continued like most of the lemmings. Sadly this is the institutions skimming all the money from the 401k deposits propping up inflated prices. They'll then give some of it back as they buy back in, we'll all be thankful, and we'll wash rinse and repeat. Stock market is a well oiled scam in my opinion, but what else is there for us to work with?