[RickFLM4]

Today’s jobs report.

[wdb]

Okay, but how hard is it to come back from a 20M job loss. The stockjokers have a term -- 'dead cat bounce'.

I'm not pessimistic, but I will still wait and see. 1918-1919 still looms large for me.

[RickFLM4]

Well the projection was for around 8 million more losses / digging a deeper hole. So 2 million plus job gains is way better than adding 8 million losses onto the 20M+ from March / April and a 20% unemployment rate.

[UncleWede]

The total number of jobs has zero insight into the QUALITY of those jobs, right? Going from a decent, regular earning in some office setting, to delivering groceries or pizza, is that really the same metric?

[RickFLM4]

Job growth in higher paying jobs is best but job growth is better than more job losses. No one is claiming the job report fixes everything. Just that it is a positive relative to an expected negative.

By all accounts, lower paying jobs were disproportionately affected by losses. (See chart from NY Times.) I think most of the jobs in May were some of those people going back to work plus resuming construction project jobs. I don’t think there were a lot of highly paid consultants and lawyers taking jobs at McDonalds. Long way to go, but taking a small step in the right direction is much better than another big step into the hole.

[HFW003]

For anyone looking to watch some live sport our AFL (Aussie Rules Football) starts up tomorrow night our time.

If you want to see a very highly skilled and tough game of football take a look.

Hope everyone is safe and well!

[MPOWER5266]

We have had almost daily gatherings of several thousands of people in Atlanta for the last week and a half with no spikes...

[saeyedoc]

Originally Posted by MPOWER5266

We have had almost daily gatherings of several thousands of people in Atlanta for the last week and a half with no spikes...

Give it another week or three. 1/2 week for those infected to realize it, another two weeks for those that get really sick to end up in the hospital.

[MPOWER5266]

Originally Posted by saeyedoc

Give it another week or three. 1/2 week for those infected to realize it, another two weeks for those that get really sick to end up in the hospital.

This disease is an epidemiological anomaly, always "two weeks" away from symptoms.

The two week number is the max, people should have symptoms by now as the incubation period is closer to 5 days.

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days. Monitoring or quarantine for 14 days will identify approximately 99% or greater of symptomatic infections among patients exposed."

[NorthCountryGuy]

Originally Posted by saeyedoc

Give it another week or three. 1/2 week for those infected to realize it, another two weeks for those that get really sick to end up in the hospital.

Yep.
The contagion started in NYC. Then moved to other parts the country. When NYC was in max chaos, the ‘heartland’ had barely anything. Because of no organized national program, it was only a predictable matter of time as we see the curves head northward. An absolute stroke of genius to ‘open’ the heartland while the y axis of the graphs have positive slopes...
It’ll then come back to us in the Northeast as though we managed appropriately, we will get re-transmission here from those places managed poorly.

[upstatedoc]

Originally Posted by HFW003

For anyone looking to watch some live sport our AFL (Aussie Rules Football) starts up tomorrow night our time.

If you want to see a very highly skilled and tough game of football take a look.

now when you say "football" do you mean soccer, rugby or football?

[MPOWER5266]

Originally Posted by NorthCountryGuy

Yep.
The contagion started in NYC. Then moved to other parts the country. When NYC was in max chaos, the ‘heartland’ had barely anything. Because of no organized national program, it was only a predictable matter of time as we see the curves head northward. An absolute stroke of genius to ‘open’ the heartland while the y axis of the graphs have positive slopes...
It’ll then come back to us in the Northeast as though we managed appropriately, we will get re-transmission here from those places managed poorly.

I think the mass gatherings and protests in NYC would have more to do with it than other parts of the county opening a few weeks ago.

[NorthCountryGuy]

Originally Posted by MPOWER5266

I think the mass gatherings and protests in NYC would have more to do with it than other parts of the county opening a few weeks ago.

Don’t know about ‘more to do with’...
I was talking with my colleagues and nurses about the re-infection in the Northeast 3-4 weeks before this protest business.
The protest congregations will just increase the increase.

[MPOWER5266]

Originally Posted by NorthCountryGuy

Don’t know about ‘more to do with’...
I was talking with my colleagues and nurses about the re-infection in the Northeast 3-4 weeks before this protest business.
The protest congregations will just increase the increase.

So cases have been rising for the last 3-4 weeks up there and NYC is still reopening? Or is this another area in the Northeast?

[RickFLM4]

I would have been very surprised if there was not an increase in cases over the next month, just from increased mobility of people and increases in testing. I just hoped there would not be enough serious cases to overwhelm the healthcare system. But add in protests / major gatherings and I’d say there is something wrong with data (either number of cases or what we’ve been told about how it spreads) if there are not spikes in cases over the next month or two. Just have to hope the proportion that are require hospitalization / result in death are lower than the first wave.

[HFW003]

Originally Posted by upstatedoc

now when you say "football" do you mean soccer, rugby or football?

AFL is different to all those forms of football although it does share similarities with all of them.

It’s played on a large oval shaped field with 18 players per side and is a 360 degree game. The ball is oval about the same size as an NFL ball but rounder. The closest thing to it which is played elsewhere is Gaelic Football from Ireland.

It’s very fast, no pads and there are lots of big hits. See here,

[UncleWede]

So basically Pro Smear the Queer?

[upstatedoc]

Originally Posted by HFW003

AFL is different to all those forms of football although it does share similarities with all of them.

It’s played on a large oval shaped field with 18 players per side and is a 360 degree game. The ball is oval about the same size as an NFL ball but rounder. The closest thing to it which is played elsewhere is Gaelic Football from Ireland.

It’s very fast, no pads and there are lots of big hits. See here,

wow talk about TBI

[Rmtt]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

I would have been very surprised if there was not an increase in cases over the next month, just from increased mobility of people and increases in testing. I just hoped there would not be enough serious cases to overwhelm the healthcare system. But add in protests / major gatherings and I’d say there is something wrong with data (either number of cases or what we’ve been told about how it spreads) if there are not spikes in cases over the next month or two. Just have to hope the proportion that are require hospitalization / result in death are lower than the first wave.

We had our weekly briefing with SC's Capital people yesterday. Every week, all of the bigger business's participate in an on-line meeting. I'm in it along withj our EH&S manager.

We were told that there were a significant spike in cases in the last couple of weeks...and that they were going to extend the state of emergency that was supposed to expire today.

[NorthCountryGuy]

Originally Posted by MPOWER5266

So cases have been rising for the last 3-4 weeks up there and NYC is still reopening? Or is this another area in the Northeast?

Not yet.
The rise in the heartland has just started.
Give it 6 - 8 weeks till you see a rise from infected persons there manifest elsewhere. Similar to the planes landing in NYC in January and cases starting to rise in February/March.

I started wearing my mask to the grocery in January, and people looked at me like I was crazy. I had patients asking me in the ED, hey doc why you wearing a mask ? Are you sick ?
No. I just no the logistics of an easily transmissible contagion.

[Littlebear]

Originally Posted by NorthCountryGuy

Not yet.
The rise in the heartland has just started.
Give it 6 - 8 weeks till you see a rise from infected persons there manifest elsewhere. Similar to the planes landing in NYC in January and cases starting to rise in February/March.

I started wearing my mask to the grocery in January, and people looked at me like I was crazy. I had patients asking me in the ED, hey doc why you wearing a mask ? Are you sick ?
No. I just no the logistics of an easily transmissible contagion.

I'm not sure where NorthCountryGuy lives, but I don't think it is Westchester County, which is 'upstate' to most NYC folk!
We did our first "Escape from NY" last week, going to the ADK mountains to check on the cabin we rent. Generally, we found the covid compliance to be very high. Masks were in the majority. Very few restaurants open in the hills, and on the trip, McDonalds wouldn't even let people in to pee!
The lake we are near has scattered campsites (~12) with no facilities, so they were open & very full. We took the canoe out for lunch (hotdogs cooked on sticks) and the ranger came by; he didn't bust us!
This county went into phase two as we went home, so the next trip should be different.

Murf

[NorthCountryGuy]

Originally Posted by Littlebear

I'm not sure where NorthCountryGuy lives, but I don't think it is Westchester County, which is 'upstate' to most NYC folk!
We did our first "Escape from NY" last week, going to the ADK mountains to check on the cabin we rent. Generally, we found the covid compliance to be very high. Masks were in the majority. Very few restaurants open in the hills, and on the trip, McDonalds wouldn't even let people in to pee!
The lake we are near has scattered campsites (~12) with no facilities, so they were open & very full. We took the canoe out for lunch (hotdogs cooked on sticks) and the ranger came by; he didn't bust us!
This county went into phase two as we went home, so the next rip should be different.

Murf

I’m North of Syracuse now, but originally from Sheepshead Bay.
New York State as a whole managed the catastrophe well. The whole Tri-State region acted assertively and in an organized fashion to handle Phase I of this epidemic. Now we are opening in a systematic fashion as our graphs have leveled down.
The heartland is now entering Phase I and they are opening up. They should be closing like the Northeast did. Absolute stupidity to open now. This thing entered in NYC. Easy to predict it will take many weeks to spread and peak in the heartland states. Is going to be a problem.