2017 X6M Residual Values

[ejholt]

I'm looking to purchase a new X6M fully loaded, minus Night Vision, so an MSRP of $116,500. I'll be purchasing the vehicle at invoice, so no complaints. I'm told on a 10K annual mileage lease the residual is 58%, so after 3 years the vehicle will be worth $67K.

I've started to look at 2014 and 2015 models to see what the "average" sales price is on these vehicles. The 2014 is hard to try and draw any conclusion as 2015 was the introduction of the 2nd gen. Adding more complexity is the introduction of iDrive 5 for 2017 models.

Nevertheless, I am finding X6Ms with 30K miles / similar equipment / options running in the mid/high $50Ks. Actually found 1 that was $67K, but that was the only 1 out of 41 examples, while a majority was in the $56-$58 range. I jump up to 2015 and finding similar vehicles between $80-90K, with 3 examples that were in the $78K range with similar MSRPs ($113-116K).

Realistically, will the 2017 be worth $67K in 3 years or should I expect it might be a lot less and more likely in the $50Ks?

I've been impressed with the couple of 2017 X6Ms I've driven and might be a vehicle I would consider purchasing at the end of the lease. Have any of you made a buy decision at the end of the lease and be able to get it for less then residual?

Thank You

[arrivederci]

When I was buying, my dealer said that the residual BMW uses is the same as the non-M, yet they routinely see the M's holding their value better.

[vince7870]

My dealer said it drops in first 2 years than actually goes back up in year 3-4

[MRCUR]

Two things:

BMW regularly inflates the residual values on leases to move cars (since higher residual = lower lease payments).

If you want to purchase the car, it's almost a certainty that you'll pay less buying it up front since you're going to get a lower interest rate on the loan that you will pay on the short lease + financing at the end.

[Roundown]

Originally Posted by MRCUR

Two things:

BMW regularly inflates the residual values on leases to move cars (since higher residual = lower lease payments).

If you want to purchase the car, it's almost a certainty that you'll pay less buying it up front since you're going to get a lower interest rate on the loan that you will pay on the short lease + financing at the end.

Worth remembering that the F15 replacement likely debuts in the next year. It'll be a significant improvement over the F15 (which was really an evolution of the E70). We would expect the F85 replacement not long after...

[infamousdiz]

Originally Posted by Roundown

Worth remembering that the F15 replacement likely debuts in the next year. It'll be a significant improvement over the F15 (which was really an evolution of the E70). We would expect the F85 replacement not long after...

you are talking 4 years out for a new M X5/X6, e70 ran from 2007-2013 M 2010-2013/2014x6

[Roundown]

Originally Posted by infamousdiz

you are talking 4 years out for a new M X5/X6, e70 ran from 2007-2013 M 2010-2013/2014x6

F15 has a shorter run (no-LCI) than the E70. See the model pipeline thread, EOP is 7/2018. 3 year lease would take you into 2020. Expectation is a more significant change than E70 to F15. Would expect residuals to continue to drop as we approach EOP/as the next gen starts getting press.

At the margin, seems to make leasing more attractive, particularly now that financing rates are closer to lease money factors (net of MSDs). You're out the lease inception fees, but you can hand the keys back (or buy below the residual)... which, based on where E70s were clearing shortly after F85 introduction, might not be a bad thing.